2019年韶关“5·18”局地特大暴雨极端性成因分析

2019年5月18日,广东省韶关市出现了局地特大暴雨,刷新了韶关有气象记录以来的雨量记录。利用常规观测资料、区域气象自动站观测资料、韶关双偏振多普勒天气雷达资料,以及NCEP 1 °×1 °再分析资料对本次过程进行详细分析,探讨本次过程发生的极端性成因。(1) 本次过程是粤北历史罕见的局地暖区突发性特大暴雨过程,天气尺度的背景场较弱,极端性条件不显著,但能从中尺度分析场分析出暴雨潜势。(2) 暴雨发生之前,韶关一直处于偏南暖湿气流控制的区域,并且随着对流抑制减小为0,对流有效位能增强,自由对流高度下降至近地面,使得气块更容易被强迫抬升。(3) 多个单体持续发展与合并,出现“列车效应”,近地面冷池维持向南楔入,低层西南风加强叠加于冷池上导致强风速辐合辐散区和中气旋的出现,是维持强回波持续发展的重要原因;回波呈暖区降水的垂直结构特性,也呈现出近地面层冷池对暖湿气流强迫抬升的结构特征,侧面说明了强降水触发机制。(4) 地形对对流触发和暴雨的增幅有重要影响,峡谷和喇叭口地形加强了偏南气流的汇入及辐合作用,山前迎风坡除了地形抬升作用外,位于山前的地面辐合线对于对流既有触发又有加强与维持的作用。(5) 山前强水平温度梯度为对流发生提供了有利的环境条件,当初生对流出现降雨之后,水平温度梯度进一步加强,形成了温度梯度与对流强度之间的正反馈过程,因而对流持续发展与维持。(6) 对于此类突发的短历时强降水造成的暖区暴雨,监测和短临预警仍然是主要手段。      

影响山东的台风温比亚（1818）中尺度云团“列车效应”特征分析

基于多普勒天气雷达、区域气象观测站、常规观测和NCEP再分析数据等,利用三维雷达拼图技术对2018年第18号台风“温比亚”造成的山东暴雨中尺度特征进行分析。研究表明：台风“温比亚”造成的山东暴雨,不同阶段雨强特征有较大差异,长时间强降雨是造成灾害性暴雨的主要因素;此次台风暴雨雨团具有很强的移动特征,是否形成“列车效应”是造成灾害性暴雨的重要因素;雷达三维拼图数据可以清晰识别和分析暴雨过程中尺度雨团的移动、合并和发展规律,这些对准确监测预报暴雨的发生至关重要。     

汕尾市短历时强降雨的时空分布特征

利用汕尾市2013—2018年间115个自动气象站逐小时降雨量资料,对汕尾地区短历时强降水时空分布特征以及与年总降水量的关系进行研究。分析表明:(1)2013—2018年汕尾市短历时强降雨的次数大体呈递增趋势,各年发生的次数差异较大;(2)短历时强降雨具有明显的季节变化和日变化特征,最易发生在6月,时段集中在下午至傍晚;(3)短历时强降水主要集中在莲花山脉东南侧的海丰县大部及陆丰市东北部,包括莲花山、公平、梅陇、海城、八万等地区;(4)短历时强降雨发生次数多的年份降水量也大,两者具有很强的相关性。     

Evolution of forest precipitation water storage measurement methods

Precipitation intercepted by forests plays a major role in more than one‐fourth of the global land area's hydrologic cycle. Direct in situ measurement of intercepted precipitation is challenging, and thus, it is typically indirectly estimated through comparing precipitation under forest cover and in the open. We discuss/compare measurement methods for forest precipitation interception beyond classical budgeting and then recommend future directions for improving water storage estimation. Comparison of techniques shows that methods submerging tree components produce the largest water storage capacity values. Whole‐tree lysimeters have been used with great success at quantifying water storage for the integrated system yet are unable to separate trunk versus canopy storage. Remote sensing, particularly signal attenuation, may permit this separation. Mechanical displacement methods show great promise and variety of techniques: pulley/spring system, branch strain sensors, trunk compression sensors and photography. Relating wind sway to water storage also shows great promise with negligible environmental disruption yet is currently at the proof‐of‐concept stage. Suggested future directions focus on development of common features regarding all discussed methods: (i) measurement uncertainties or processes beyond interception influencing the observed signal, (ii) scaling approaches to move from single tree components to the single‐tree and forest scales and (iii) temporal scaling to estimate the relevance of single‐interception components over longer timescales. Through addressing these research needs, we hope the scientific community can develop an ‘integrated’ monitoring plan incorporating multiple measurement techniques to characterize forest‐scale water storage dynamics while simultaneously investigating underlying (smaller‐scale) components driving those dynamics across the spectrum of precipitation and forest conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental factors regulating stream nitrate concentrations at baseflow condition in a large region encompassing a climatic gradient

Though high rates of nitrate (NO₃⁻) leaching from forests are undesirable, the factors significantly regulating stream NO₃⁻ concentration is not clarified yet. In Japan, not only near metropolitan areas but also the Japan Sea-side area with heavy snowfall is well known for receiving more than 10 kg-N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ of nitrogen (N) deposition. However, NO₃⁻ concentration in stream water is relatively low in the Japan Sea-side area compared with its concentration in other areas. We examined important environmental factors regulating stream NO₃⁻ concentrations at baseflow condition in a large region of Japan, the Kinki region (KIN) including a part of Japan Sea-side (JSK) using Random Forest regression. The amounts of N deposition and precipitation were common regulating factors for stream NO₃⁻ concentration at baseflow condition. Random forest showed the significant correlation between the factors related to ecosystem N retention and stream NO₃⁻ concentration at baseflow condition, and it suggests that large N deposited during the growing season was incorporated into the ecosystem in the entire KIN. Heavy rain and snow flush N and wash out N accumulated in the surface soil, causing small N accumulation in forests. Also, large precipitation dilute NO₃⁻ concentration in baseflows. These things lowered stream NO₃⁻ concentration at baseflow condition. Especially in JSK, most of N deposed with the heavy snow flushed out during the snowmelt period. We provided the first statistical confirmation using Random Forest regression that N accumulation and cycling in forest ecosystems were related to NO₃⁻ leaching from forests into streams.     

Spatial variability and interdependence of rain event characteristics in the Czech Republic

Rain event characteristics are assessed in a 10‐year (1991–2000) record for 122 stations in the Czech Republic. Individual rain events are identified using the minimum interevent time (mit) concept. For each station, the optimal mit value is estimated by examining the distribution of interevent times. In addition, various mit values are considered to account for the effect of mit on rain event characteristics and their interrelationships. The interdependence between rain event characteristics and altitude, average rainfall depth, and geographic location are explored using simple linear models. Most rain event characteristics can be to some extent explained by average total rainfall or altitude, although models including the former significantly outperformed models using the latter. Significant correlation was found among several pairs of monthly mean characteristics often including event rain rate (with event duration, depth, maximum intensity, and fraction of intraevent rainless periods). Moreover, strong correlation was revealed between number of events, interevent time, event depth, and duration. In general, correlation decreases in absolute value with mit. Strong spatial correlation was found for the mean monthly interevent time and number of events. Spatial correlation was considerably smaller for other characteristics. In general, spatial dependence was smaller for larger mit values. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Capabilities of satellite precipitation datasets to estimate heavy precipitation rates at different temporal accumulations

The importance of satellite datasets as alternative sources of precipitation information has been argued in numerous studies. Future developments in satellite precipitation algorithms as well as utilization of satellite data in operational applications rely on a more in‐depth understanding of satellite errors and biases across different spatial and temporal scales. This paper investigates the capability of satellite precipitation data sets with respect to detecting heavy precipitation rates over different temporal accumulations. In this study, the performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission real time (TRMM‐RT), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks and CPC MORPHing (CMORPH) is compared against radar‐based gauge‐adjusted Stage IV data. The results show that none of the high temporal resolution (3‐h) datasets are ideal for detecting heavy precipitation rates. In fact, the detection skill of all products drops as the precipitation thresholds (i.e. 75 and 90 percentiles) increase. At higher temporal accumulations (6, 12 and 24 h), the detection skill improves for all precipitation products, with CMORPH showing a better detection skill compared to all other products. On the other hand, all precipitation products exhibit high false alarm ratios above the heavy precipitation thresholds, although TRMM‐RT lead to a relatively smaller level of false alarms. These results indicate that further efforts are necessary to improve the precipitation algorithms so that they can capture heavy precipitation rates more reliably. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity,subsurface flow,and slope length scale on transport mechanism

The connectivity and upscaling of overland runoff and sediment transport are important issues in hillslope hydrology to identify water flux and sediment transport within landscape. These processes are highly variable in time and space with regard to their interactions with vegetation and soil surface conditions. The generation of overland runoff and its spatial connectivity were examined along a slope to determine the variations in the transport mechanism of runoff and soil particles by rain splash and overland runoff. Field experiments were conducted by erosion plots on a steep hillslope at lengths of 5, 10, and 15 m. The overland runoff connectivity and flow transport distance decreased with the slope length, while spatial variability of infiltration increased significantly with the slope length. Observation of subsurface flow revealed that surface soil and litter layer could have important role in water transport. However, the surface soil water content and water flux transport along the slope was highly variable for different storm events; the variability was related to the complexity of the system, mainly by way of the initial wetness conditions and infiltration characteristics. Only net rain‐splashed soil was measurable, but examination of the water flux, overland runoff and sediment transport connectivity, characteristics of sheetwash, and the variability in spatial infiltration indicated an increase in the contribution of the rain splash transport mechanism along the slope. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

成都经济区农业土壤Cd元素的解吸动力学

对不同酸雨条件下水稻土Cd释放的研究发现,吸附态Cd释放的过程可以分为快反应和慢反应2个阶段。采用常见的动力学方程和本文创建的反三角函数方程,对淋滤实验数据进行了拟合。结果表明,反三角函数方程对多种酸雨条件下水稻土吸附态Cd释放过程的拟合度最佳。此外,多项式方程也能较好地描述这一过程。