2020年冬季海洋天气评述

2020年冬季（2020年12月－2021年2月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,中高纬环流呈 3 波型分布,西风带槽脊较常年明显偏强。位势高度距平场显示,东亚中纬度地区处于负距平区,东亚大槽较常年同期显著偏强,冷空气活动频繁、强度偏强。我国近海出现了 11 次 8 级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程 7 次,冷空气和入海气旋共同影响的大风过程 2 次,冷空气和台风共同影响的大风天气过程以及温带气旋大风过程各 1 次。我国近海出现大范围的海雾过程 4 次,海雾区域主要出现在渤海、渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海域、琼州海峡、雷州半岛沿岸海域及北部湾,出雾时段多集中于夜间至早晨。西北太平洋和南海共生成 2 个热带气旋;全球其他海域共生成热带气旋 16 个。我国近海出现 2 m以上大浪过程的天数有 54 d,约占冬季总日数的 60%。冬季,我国近海海域呈明显降温过程,北部海域的降温幅度明显大于南部海域,海面温度从北到南的温差在冬季由 2020 年 12 月的 23 ℃加大到 2021 年 2 月的 27 ℃。     

理想热带气旋增强过程中的多尺度涡度收支特征分析

基于中尺度WRF模式,研究了无背景气流环境假设条件下理想热带气旋中低层大气多尺度涡旋运动的发展演变特征。精确的尺度分离是基于傅里叶变换实现的,且原始涡度场被划分为三个尺度范围:系统尺度(大于150 km)、中间尺度(50~150 km)、对流尺度(小于50 km)。研究结果表明:热带气旋的非轴对称本质主要是由于中间尺度和对流尺度上的运动造成的,且中间尺度涡度演变特征与热带气旋增强的阶段性有很好的对应关系,尤其是其快速增强阶段;全尺度涡度收支特征主要表现为两两抵消效应:STR/HAD和TIL/VAD,且前者的净贡献明显强于后者;系统尺度涡度收支特征与全尺度基本一致,但中间尺度涡度收支表现出明显不同特征:积分70 h之前,各收支项均表现出了与系统尺度相反的贡献,之后,各收支项的符号转变与系统尺度相同,但收支项净贡献明显大于系统尺度。总的来说,水平分辨率5 km下模拟的理想热带气旋的快速增强主要与中间尺度上STR/HAD净贡献的快速增长有关。此外,进一步研究了特定时段中间尺度涡度收支项的空间演变,结果表明:在热带气旋增强阶段,各收支项均在涡旋内核的轴对称化中有不可忽视的作用,且TIL在中心负涡度异常衰退、最终变为正涡度过程中起主导作用。      

Study of the Wind Conditions in the South China Sea and Its Adjacent Sea Area

An increasing number of marine structures have been built for coastal protection and marine development in recent years,and wind,which is crucial to marine structures,should be analyzed.Therefore,typhoon frequency,wind climate,wind energy assess-ment,and extreme wind speed in the South China Sea(SCS)are investigated in detail in this study.The data are obtained from the China Meteorological Administration,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,and the National Centers for Envi-ronmental Prediction.The offshore wind energy potential is analyzed at five sites near the coast.The spatial and monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones for different intensity categories are analyzed.The extreme wind speed is fitted by five distribution models,and the generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution is selected as the most suitable function according to the goodness of fit.The spa-tial distributions of extreme wind speeds in the SCS are plotted on the basis of the GEV distribution and ERA5 data sets.The influ-ences of the distribution models and data sets on the calculated results are discussed.Moreover,the monthly extreme wind speed and comparison with the results of previous studies are analyzed.This study provides a reference for the design of wind turbines.     

中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析

热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋（STY和SUPER TY）时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。     

Reduced channel morphological response to urbanization in a flood‐dominated humid tropical environment

Urbanization through the addition of impervious cover can alter catchment hydrology, often resulting in increased peak flows during floods. This phenomenon and the resulting impact on stream channel morphology is well documented in temperate climatic regions, but not well documented in the humid tropics where urbanization is rapidly occurring. This study investigates the long‐term effects of urbanization on channel morphology in the humid sub‐tropical region of Puerto Rico, an area characterized by frequent high‐magnitude flows, and steep coarse‐grained rivers. Grain size, low‐flow channel roughness, and the hydraulic geometry of streams across a land‐use gradient that ranges from pristine forest to high density urbanized catchments are compared. In areas that have been urbanized for several decades changes in channel features were measurable, but were smaller than those reported for comparable temperate streams. Decades of development has resulted in increased fine sediment and anthropogenic debris in urbanized catchments. Materials of anthropogenic origin comprise an average of 6% of the bed material in streams with catchments with 15% or greater impervious cover. At‐a‐station hydraulic geometry shows that velocity makes up a larger component of discharge for rural channels, while depth contributes a larger component of discharge in urban catchments. The average bank‐full cross‐sectional area of urbanized reaches was 1.5 times larger than comparable forested reaches, and less than the world average increase of 2.5. On average, stream width at bank‐full height did not change with urbanization while the world average increase is 1.5 times. Overall, this study indicates that the morphologic changes that occur in response to urban runoff are less in channels that are already subject to frequent large magnitude storms. Furthermore, this study suggests that developing regions in the humid tropics shouldn't rely on temperate analogues to determine the magnitude of impact of urbanization on stream morphology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical cyclones and floods in Fiji

Abstract

Daily flow records, rainfall data and tropical cyclone maps during 1970–1998 are used to document the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on floods in the Rewa River system, Viti Levu, Fiji. Floods are large, brief, isolated events caused by TCs and non-TC tropical rainstorms. More floods are caused by tropical rainstorms than by TCs, but TC floods are larger. The log Pearson Type III distribution consistently provided the best fit to partial duration flood series and the widely-recommended generalized Pareto distribution performed very poorly, underscoring the need to test a variety of distributions for a particular geographic location. Tropical cyclones occur more often in Fiji during negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and all TCs that occurred during El Niño conditions caused floods. Peak flood discharges caused by TCs are inversely correlated with the SOI, reflecting possible links with tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation intensity.     

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.     

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Abstract

The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548.     

数值预报产品统计释用技术在热带气旋路径客观预报中的应用

首先对应用数值预报产品统计释用技术的效果进行了统计,结果表明,数值预报产品统计释用技术的应用改善了热带气旋路径客观预报中预报因子的预报能力,提高了模式的预报技巧并拓展了有效预报时效。继而对热带气旋路径客观预报中若干统计释用技术问题进行了讨论,并指出：在应用数值预报产品构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式时,采用大样本资料和完全预报方法,细心构造反映各种天气系统特征和物理量场的预报因子,应用多时刻ＮＷＰ产品并对ＮＷＰ产品进行统计订正。对多种预报模式的预报结果进行综合集成等技术是提高预报技巧和稳定性的有效途径。     

环礁潟湖沉积物重建南沙群岛小冰期以来的热带气旋活动

热带气旋活动以及由此产生的风暴潮和强降雨对南海及周边沿海地区社会经济构成巨大威胁。对器测记录之前全新世热带气旋的研究有助于准确预测全球变暖背景下热带气旋活动的变化趋势。本文利用南沙群岛安乐礁潟湖沉积物重建了小冰期以来准年分辨率的热带气旋活动, 共识别28个风暴事件层。研究表明, 小冰期以来, 南沙群岛安乐礁热带气旋活动在年代际到百年尺度上频繁变化, 发育两个主要的风暴活跃期。在小冰期早期(AD 1471—1620)经历了最为强烈的风暴活跃期, 另一个风暴活跃期位于现代暖期的AD 1930—1960, 风暴活动虽有所加强, 但明显低于小冰期早期。与同期永暑礁重建结果的对比表明, 热带气旋活动存在明显的时空差异性, 更多来自相近区域的高分辨率风暴记录可有效降低古风暴活动重建的不确定性, 提高重建记录的准确度。