神头泉流量变化规律研究--灰色系统理论的具体应用

在分析神头泉流量衰减特征的前提下，利用灰色系统理论建立了描述神头泉流量变化规律的数学模型。以1985年为界，神头泉的流量变化过程可分为两个阶段，GM（1，1）模型与灰色预测校正模型则分别用于对这两个阶段的流量变化特征进行刻画。神头泉2000－2004年的流量预测值表明，在神头泉域保证90年代中期的高降水量和朔州市各地下水用户对泉域内的地下水不进行超采的基础上，神头泉的流量在未来的一段时间内会维持1993年以来的增长趋势。     

非常规综合物化探油气预测研究

非常规综合物化探方法油气预测研究中存在的主要问题为：缺乏系统与综合的基础性理论研究，异常形成的机理还不十分清楚，在参数的优化组合及异常的求取上尚有诸多不足。针对后一种情况，选择松辽盆地东岭构造作为实验区进行了有益的探索。选取低能吸附烃、放射性测氡及土壤热释光三类参数进行了优化组合，分别计算了综合指标MAE与MAC及组合熵，然后对各值采用泛克里格法求取异常，取得了良好的效果。下一步研究应从异常形成的机理入手，建立三维非常规综合物化探油气预测模式，以提高油气预测成功率。     

成矿系统与矿化网络研究

成矿系统研究体现了系统观和历史观的结合，是现代矿床学的一个发展趋势，本文简要总结了成矿系统及演化论的几个要点，即（1）按构造动力体制划分成矿系统大类；（2）我因耦合，临界转换的成矿作用机理；（3）矿床系列和异常系列构成的矿化网络；（4）矿床形成-变化-保存的演变过程，在此基础上，作者提出矿化网络是在一个成矿系统中形成的诸类矿床和相关异常的时空分布和结构，它是成矿系统的具体内容的表达。对成矿系统的深入研究应从矿化网络入手，着重在以下几个方面；（1）各类矿床的发育程度；（3）各类矿床的空间关系；（3）各类矿床的时间关系；（4）各类矿床的成因联系；（5）各类矿床被改造的情况。这些都是矿床学和找矿预测研究的基础内容。     

Late Cretaceous reactivation of major crustal shear zones in northern Namibia: constraints from apatite fission track analysis

Namibia's passive continental margin records a long history of tectonic activity since the Proterozoic. The orogenic belt produced during the collision of the Congo and Kalahari Cratons in the Early Proterozoic led to a zone of crustal weakness, which became the preferred location for tectonism during the Phanerozoic. The Pan-African Damara mobile belt forms this intraplate boundary in Namibia and its tectonostratigraphic zones are defined by ductile shear zones, where the most prominent is described as the Omaruru Lineament–Waterberg Thrust (OML–WT). The prominance of the continental margin escarpment is diminished in the area of the Central and Northern Zone of the Damara belt where the shear zones are located. This area has been targeted with a set of 66 outcrop samples over a 550-km-long, 60-km-broad coast-parallel transect from the top of the escarpment in the south across the Damara sector to the Kamanjab Inlier in the north. Apatite fission track age and length data from all samples reveal a regionally consistent cooling event. Thermal histories derived by forward modelling bracket this phase of accelerated cooling in the Late Cretaceous. Maximum palaeotemperatures immediately prior to the onset of cooling range from ca. 120 to ca. 60 °C with the maximum occurring directly south of the Omaruru Lineament. Because different palaeotemperatures indicate different burial depth at a given time, the amount of denudation can be estimated and used to constrain vertical displacements of the continental crust. We interpret this cooling pattern as the geomorphic response to reactivation of basement structures caused by a change in spreading geometry in the South Atlantic and South West Indian Oceans.     

Phanerozoic tectonothermal history of the Arabian–Nubian shield in the Eastern Desert of Egypt: evidence from fission track and paleostress data

To constrain the post-Pan-African evolution of the Arabian–Nubian Shield, macro-scale tectonic studies, paleostress and fission track data were performed in the Eastern Desert of Egypt. The results provide insights into the processes driving late stage vertical motion and the timing of exhumation of a large shield area. Results of apatite, zircon and sphene fission track analyses from the Neoproterozoic basement indicate two major episodes of exhumation. Sphene and zircon fission track data range from 339 to 410 Ma and from 315 to 366 Ma, respectively. The data are interpreted to represent an intraplate thermotectonic episode during the Late Devonian–Early Carboniferous. At that time, the intraplate stresses responsible for deformation, uplift and erosion, were induced by the collision of Gondwana with Laurussia which started in Late Devonian times. Apatite fission track data indicate that the second cooling phase started in Oligocene and was related to extension, flank uplift and erosion along the actual margin of the Red Sea. Structural data collected from Neoproterozoic basement, Late Cretaceous and Tertiary sedimentary cover suggest two stages of rift formation. (1) Cretaceous strike-slip tectonics with sub-horizontal σ1 (ENE/WSW) and σ3 (NNW/SSE), and sub-vertical σ2 resulted in formation of small pull-apart basins. Basin axes are parallel to the trend of Pan-African structural elements which acted as stress guides. (2) During Oligocene to Miocene the stress field changed towards horizontal NE–SW extension (σ3), and sub-vertical σ1. Relations between structures, depositional ages of sediments and apatite fission track data indicate that the initiation of rift flank uplift, erosion and plate deformation occurred nearly simultaneously.     

深井水氡主要干扰因素及映震效能分析

对甘肃省玉门青6井和平凉泾川泾3井两口深水井的水氡及辅助项目观测资料采用多元逐步回归、相关距平、一阶差分等方法进行处理，分析并排除了主要干扰因素，显示出两井在肃南5.4级、托莱6.0级和礼县5.1级地震前有明显异常，对两井的映震效能和地震预报前景进行了评价。     

历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。     

对“十五”期间防震减灾社会需求的分析

分析了“十五”期间社会，政府对防震减灾工作的需求，联系工作实际进行了全面论述和分析，并对推进防震减灾提出了一些有益的政策建议。     

对永胜6级地震的预报及依据

2001年10月27日在云南永胜发生6.0级地震，震前四川省地震局有较准确的中期和短临预报，加强了川滇交界地区的地震监测预报工作，并且向四川省政府作了汇报，取得了明显的社会效益。经验性地震预报重视川滇菱形地块西界断裂带动态活动图像的分析，尤其对历史强震破裂空段附近出现的中小震活动带或新活跃区段的研究；同时，重视4级前震群、川滇交界地区地下水位、水温、形变观测异常的跟踪分析和震情预测。     

加卸载响应比理论在华南地区中强震预测中的应用

用加卸载响应比理论对华南地区12例中强以上地震进行研究，结果表明有8例在震前响应比值有明显的高值（Y≥2.0）异常显示，通过对响应比值随时间变化特征的分析发现，响应比对5级左右地震有较好的中短期预测效果，因此响应比理论可作为本区地震预测的新方法。