Evaluation of farmland losses from sea level rise and storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change

The Pearl River Delta on China’s coast is a region that is seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges induced by global climate change, which causes flooding of large areas of farmland and huge agricultural losses. Based on relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surges was established. In this model, the area of submerged farmland, area of crops, and per unit yield of every type of crop were considered, but the impact of wind, flooding time, changes in land use and plant structure were not considered for long-term prediction. Taking the Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong as the study area, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution and loss of farmlands for different scenarios in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, using a digital elevation model, land-use data, local crop structure, rotation patterns, and yield loss ratios for different submerged heights obtained from field survey and questionnaires. The results show that the proportion of submerged farmlands and losses of agricultural production in the Pearl River Delta region will increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan, and Dongguan show obvious increases in submerged farmlands, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai show slow increases. In agricultural losses, vegetables would sustain the largest loss of production, followed by rice and peanuts. The greatest loss of rice crops would occur in Jiangmen, and the loss of vegetable crops would be high in Shanwei and Jiangmen. Although losses of peanut crops are generally lower, Jiangmen, Guangzhou, and Shanwei would experience relatively high losses. Finally, some measures to defend against storm surges are suggested, such as building sea walls and gates in Jiangmen, Huizhou, and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to reduce destruction from storm surges, and strengthening disaster warning systems.     

已建城市排水管网的排涝能力评估方法

以SWMM 模型为平台构建已建城市区域排涝模型,以广州市芳村高尔夫地块为研究区域,基于研究区域实测降雨、径流等资料对模型进行参数率定和验证,模拟在不同暴雨重现期下已建城市区域雨水管网的排涝能力。研究结果表明：该区域遭遇2 a 一遇暴雨时,J14、J15 和J31 等3 个排水节点出现积水;当遭遇5 a 一遇时,J15 片区和J31 节点出现较为严重的积水,其中J15 和J31 节点积水量分别达到1 674、546 m³;积水时间分别为0.5、0.4 h。针对研究区域排水管网排涝能力偏低的现状,建议结合LID（Low Impact Development）措施,削减暴雨洪峰流量,提高区域排涝能力。文章构建的已建城市排水管网排涝能力评估方法,可识别区域主要积水黑点及管道满流管段,提供了一种动态、定性和定量评估排水管网能力的方法。     

A simplified storm index method to extrapolate intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for ungauged stations in central Chile

Most of meteorological stations in Chile register rainfall amounts once every 24 h. The creation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves requires continuous recorded data, and this insufficiency of proper instrumentation has resulted in a lack of IDF curves nationwide. The objective of this study is to further develop and evaluate the feasibility of a new method to estimate IDF curves in ungauged stations under Mediterranean climates of central Chile. A technique used to address this problem is the use of a storm index (S_I), also known as the ‘K’ method, which allows the construction of IDF curves from stations with discontinuous data, by extrapolating data from stations with continuous records, as long as daily rainfall intensities for both stations differ by less than 2 mm h^?1. To test the applicability of this method, S_I values were calculated for 40 meteorological stations located throughout Central Chile (latitudes 30°S to 40°S). The extrapolated IDF curves were then compared with observed data, and the goodness of fit was determined. The results indicate that the storm index method can adequately estimate hourly IDF curve values for stations lacking of continuous rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of Sea Surface Heights in the Baltic Sea: An Intercomparison of Observations and Model Simulations

Sea level changes in the Baltic Sea are dominated by internal, short-term variations that are mostly caused by the ephemeral nature of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic area. Tides are small and their influence decreases from western parts of the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Proper. Superimposed to the large short-term sea level changes (up to few decimeters from day to day) are seasonal and interannual variations (centimeters to decimeters). This study focuses on the comparison of sea surface heights obtained from observations and from a high resolution oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. From this comparison, the accuracy of the modeled sea surface variations is evaluated, which is a necessary precondition for the further use of the oceanographic model in geodetic applications. The model reproduces all observed Baltic sea level variations very reliably with an accuracy of 5 to 9 cm (rms) for short-term variations (up to 2 months) and 8 cm (rms) for long-term variations (>2 months). An additional improvement of the model can be attained by including long-period sea level variations of the North Sea. The model performs well also in the case of extreme sea level events, as is shown for a major storm surge that occurred at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in November 1995.     

Partitioning of metals (Fe,Pb, Cu,Zn) in urban run‐off from the Kaikorai Valley,Dunedin, New Zealand

Urban run‐off from a catchment in Dunedin, New Zealand was sampled and chemically characterised (iron (Fe), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) in total and <0.4 (im fractions, suspended solids, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), dissolved organic carbon, major ions, pH) during base flows, and storm flows from five rainfall events. Fe and Pb were found to be predominantly particle‐associated (>0.4 μm) and their concentrations increased significantly at the beginning of storm run‐off. In contrast, the majority of Cu and Zn was found in the <0.4μm fraction before rainfall events but during the initial period of storm flows a significant proportion of Cu and Zn was also present in the >0.4 μm fraction. The results indicate that Cu and Zn may be more bio‐available, and more difficult to remove by storm‐water treatment, than Pb. The pH level and the concentration of major ions (Ca⁺², Na⁺, Mg⁺², K⁺), dissolved reactive phosphorus, and nitrate generally decreased during storm flows as a result of dilution by rainwater. Concentrations of total N and P often increased during the initial period of storm run‐off, which was likely because of wash‐off of particulate plant material.     

Formation mechanism of large pockmarks in the subaqueous Yellow River Delta

Abstract

We have identified large pockmarks in an area of approximately 0.3?km² in the subaqueous Yellow River Delta in the Chengdao Sea. Gas eruption channels not been identified in the sediment layers in this area, and the formation mechanism of these large pockmarks remains unknown. To study the formation mechanism of these large pockmarks, we constructed a layered silty sediment model composed of appropriate geological materials. Then, we calculated the stress, displacement, and excess pore pressure in the layered silty sediment from the surface to a depth of 10?m using the Biot theory. A comparative analysis of the calculated results and the data measured in the field was then performed. Based on these results, we established a new formation mechanism for the large pockmarks. With the occurrence of storm waves, two extreme areas of displacement and excess pore pressure appeared in the layered silty sediment. These extreme values increased quickly in the seabed during the continuous action of storm waves. When the excess pore pressure surpassed the effective stress, the top silty layer instantly liquefied and then reconsolidated. Then, when the pore pressure of the interface position exceeded the effective stress produced by the overlying sediment, the sediments experienced “sand boil” damage. With the repeated action of strong waves, the boundary of the pockmark continued to expand, forming a large and stable pockmark. This work is of great value for further understanding and mitigating marine geologic hazards, such as coastal erosion, silt deposition, and unstable sediment, in the subaqueous Yellow River Delta.     

FY-2E分裂窗晴空沙尘区导风初步研究

干旱半干旱沙尘爆发区风场信息作为沙尘监测的一个重要组成部分,能够为沙尘移向预报提供宝贵的资料。结合目前日趋成熟的红外分裂窗差值监测沙尘及卫星导风技术,针对FY-2E气象卫星,首先利用MODTRAN辐射传输模式对沙尘晴空区特征进行敏感性分析,再将经过图像掩膜及线性处理后的分裂窗差值图像代入导风计算程序计算,获得了传统卫星导风所无法得到的水汽含量低值区风场信息。实际个例分析表明,得到的沙尘区风场与NCEP再分析资料850hPa风场有很好的一致性,能够为监测沙尘移动提供良好的风场信息。     

The tunnel through Torghatten,northern Norway: Landforms and discussion of formation

The tunnel through the mountain of Torghatten, in northern Norway, is generally regarded as a product of wave action. The tunnel is above the late Weichselian marine limit. Fresh looking polished bedrock that resembles subglacial ice-sculptured and meltwater forms, p-forms, occurs near the opening to the landward eastern side of the tunnel and inside. Most likely, the tunnel is a polygenetic formation. Storm action during deglaciations and also subglacial meltwater drainage and plastically sliding ice during glaciations have been active processes in the formation of the tunnel.     

中国北方一次强沙尘暴爆发的数值模拟研究

 利用意大利国际理论物理研究中心发展的耦合了沙尘模块的区域气候模式（RegCM3）对发生在中国北方2006年4月9~11日期间的一次强沙尘暴的爆发进行了数值模拟研究。与实际观测相比,RegCM3成功地模拟出了本次沙尘暴爆发区域、天气形势及相应的沙尘气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）分布。4月9日6时,沙尘暴首先爆发于塔里木和吐鲁番盆地。受蒙古气旋的影响,24 h后甘肃中部及内蒙古西部地区也开始爆发沙尘暴。源区地面起沙率大于3 mg·m-2·s-1,单位面积上的沙尘载荷量高于3 000 mg/m2。对流层中低层沙尘主要向东输送,可影响我国华北绝大部分地区,本次沙尘暴过程造成中国北方主要城市空气质量的下降。模拟的AOD分布特征与地面起沙率和载荷量分布特征相对应,并与TOMS 卫星观测的气溶胶指数(AI)的区域和中心值具有较好的一致性。AOD分布由西向东呈递减的趋势,且有两个大于2的高值中心,一个位于新疆塔里木、吐鲁番盆地和古尔班通古特沙漠地区;另一个位于河西走廊和内蒙古交界地区。对比他人研究结果,RegCM3对沙尘的起沙、传输等过程以及AOD的时空分布模拟合理。     

基于前期观测降水和500 hPa高度场的西北太平洋热带风暴生成频数的新预测方案

利用前期1—2月和4—5月平均的东半球格点降水与500hPa高度场资料,通过多元线性逐步回归,建立了预测西北太平洋年热带风暴生成频数的预测方案。由于分别使用了欧洲中期数值预报中心和美国国家环境预测中心的大气再分析资料,建立了两个预测模型,对1979—2002年的预测交叉检验的距平相关系数分别为0.78和0.74。预测的多年平均绝对误差是3.0和3.2,即多年平均西北太平洋年热带风暴生成频数的10%左右。进一步指出:实际预测中可以把两个模型的预测结果平均作为最后预测结果,这样的话,多年交叉检验的距平相关系数是0.88,多年平均的预测绝对误差是1.92个。这样就可能得到更加准确的预测。本文结果还只是该方案的交叉检验结果,尚需在实际预测中进一步检验其能力。