Frequency analysis of a dynamical system

Frequency analysis is a new method for analyzing the stability of orbits in a conservative dynamical system. It was first devised in order to study the stability of the solar system (Laskar, Icarus, 88, 1990). It is a powerful method for analyzing weakly chaotic motion in hamiltonian systems or symplectic maps. For regular motions, it yields an analytical representation of the solutions. In cases of 2 degrees of freedom system with monotonous torsion, precise numerical criterions for the destruction of KAM tori can be found. For a 4D symplectic map, plotting the frequency map in the frequency plane provides a clear representation of the global dynamics and describes the actual Arnold web of the system.     

济南市地下水资源现状分析及开发利用建议

本文采用较新的统计资料,对济南市地下水资源的开发利用现状及开采潜力,以行政区划为单元进行了分析论证.针对地下水资源开发利用中存在的环境水文地质问题,提出了开发利用规划和建议.     

Dynamical History of the Earth–Moon System

Differential equations describing the tidal evolution of the earth's rotation and of the lunar orbital motion are presented in a simple close form. The equations differ in form for orbits fixed to the terrestrial equator and for orbits with the nodes precessing along the ecliptic due to solar perturbations. Analytical considerations show that if the contemporary lunar orbit were equatorial the evolution would develop from an unstable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 4.42 h (in the past) to a stable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 44.8 days (in the future). It is also demonstrated that at the contemporary epoch the orbital plane of the fictitious equatorial moon would be unstable in the Liapunov's sense, being asymptotically stable at early stages of the evolution. Evolution of the currently near-ecliptical lunar orbit and of the terrestrial rotation is traced backward in time by numerical integration of the evolutional equations. It is confirmed that about 1.8 billion years ago a critical phase of the evolution took place when the equatorial inclination of the moon reached small values and the moon was in a near vicinity of the earth. Before the critical epoch t _cr two types of the evolution are possible, which at present cannot be unambiguously distinguished with the help of the purely dynamical considerations. In the scenario that seems to be the most realistic from the physical point of view, the evolution also has started from a geosynchronous equatorial lunar orbit of the period 4.19 h. At t < t _cr the lunar orbit has been fixed to the precessing terrestrial equator by strong perturbations from the earth's flattening and by tidal effects; at the critical epoch the solar perturbations begin to dominate and transfer the moon to its contemporary near-ecliptical orbit which evolves now to the stable geosynchronous state. Probably this scenario is in favour of the Darwin's hypothesis about originating the moon by its separation from the earth. Too much short time scale of the evolution in this model might be enlarged if the dissipative Q factor had somewhat larger values in the past than in the present epoch. Values of the length of day and the length of month, estimated from paleontological data, are confronted with the results of the developed model.     

天文(重力)水准的新手段及其计算方法

介绍当今确定天文大地垂偏差的新仪器－CCD自动天体测量仪和确定两点间高程异常差的新方法，该方法用单极坐标代替繁琐的双极坐标进行计算，讨论了天文重力水准的误差及垂线偏差非线性影响等问题，估计在不久的将来，用这一手段施测山区似大地水准面的精度可望达到厘米级。     

案例推理的地学应用背景和方法

案例推理 (CBR)研究 ,是人类认知的一种合理性模型 ,接近于人类认识、解决问题最原始的思维方式 ,具有在无法获取机理模型、确定规则或统计模型时 ,采用简单的历史相似性推理实现问题的定量求解和预测 ,成为人工智能领域近年来的研究热点。     

概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

Discrimination of sedimentary facies by association analysis

The ability of association analysis to discriminate sedimentary facies was tested on Purdy's modal analyses of modern sediments of the Great Bahama Bank. Purdy's data set has served in the past as a standard reference for evaluating various multivariate classification algorithms. In order to adapt Purdy's data to association analysis, the percent abundance of the 12 constituents was converted to binary form by dichotomizing each variable on its mean value. The results obtained by association analysis are virtually identical to those obtained by Purdy and other authors. The same four main sedimentary facies were discriminated; 86% of the samples were identically classified (97% when misclassified borderline cases are counted as matches); the total partition variance of the classification is only negligibly greater (4%); and the grouping of the variables yielded the same four groups. The rank order of the three division-attributes responsible for the sample classification is fines, oolites, and corals. Association analysis has been employed by other authors to differentiate meaningful facies groups in studies of ancient reef carbonates, modern reef sediments, and heavy minerals in stream sediments. In all these studies, the results were found to be compatible with those obtained by using the continuous quantitative measurements, indicating that qualitative binary data may often be sufficient for the purpose of facies discrimination in many branches of geology and that association analysis is an effective method for this purpose.     

变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

Researches in China on the Effects of Tides on the Earth Rotation

In this paper the tidal phenomena on the Earth are concisely specified, including solid tides, ocean tides and atmospheric tides due to the luni-solar tide-generating force, and the Earth pole tide due to the motion of the Earth's rotation axis (polar motion); as well as their effects on the Earth rotation. The outcomes of scientific researches of Chinese astronomers on these topics are described in some detail. These researches deal with the mechanisms responsible for tidal effects on the earth rotation, and on the measurements of the Earth rotation parameters. Finally, the effects discovered by Chinese researchers on the measurements of the period and change in period of pulsars are discussed. These effects are very small in magnitude but not negligible.