关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。     

Chrysophyte stomatocyst taxonomy — classification of snowflakes?

The utility of classifying chrysophyte stomatocysts by their characteristic honeycomb and ridge patterns is questioned, because a strikingly similar expanding pattern appears on the surface of ionized polymer gels during osmotical swelling as a result of simple physical forces. The rapid accumulation of silicate into a spherical cyst inside a chrysophyte cell appears to be as a physical process sufficiently similar to result in an analogous pattern in microscopic scale. Chrysophyte stomatocysts that possess honeycomb or ridge patterns could be regarded as frozen moments of the pattern evolution during the silicate gel phase. As a consequence, such structures should have little taxonomical value.     

弹性波的三维有限元模拟

本文讨论了弹性波瞬态传播问题的三维有限元计算方法及当前存在的实际困难.针对要求计算机内存大和计算时间长的问题,采取了改进措施.由于采用了集中质量矩阵和修正的中心差分时间积分显格式相结合的方法,可以使计算机内存和计算时间大为减少;由于采用结点定位法,最适合用于目前发展的并行计算机系统,可使计算速度大大增快;还采用了有效激发震源法,有效激发区是随时间步进的增加而逐步增大,这不仅能节省计算时间,而且使波场的传播过程一目了然,本文计算了由两种介质组成的三维楔形问题,得到若干典型剖面的瞬时波场图及随时间变化的合成地震图.     

城乡一体化渐进式开发及发展模式研究--以成都市为例

城乡一体化成为当前研究的热点问题之一。成都市从2003年开始，在全市范围内开展城乡一体化试点，准确把握城乡一体化的发展模式，是顺利推进城乡一体化发展的重要一环。根据成都市城乡一体化发展的特点，采用回归方法预测了城市化发展水平，并借鉴国际城市和国内沿海城市的发展经验，提出成都市城乡一体化应采取的总体思路和发展模式，结合成都市城市化水平预测结果，提出其分阶段、分步骤实施的时间阶段。     

松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局动态变化研究

湿地退化及其所带来的负面影响使人们认识到湿地生态系统生态功能的重要性.因此,作为功能研究基础的景观格局及其动态变化的研究显得尤为重要.在遥感和地理信息系统技术支持下,运用土地利用变化指数和景观格局指数模型,对处于生态脆弱区的松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局及动态变化进行了定量研究,结果表明:松嫩平原西部沼泽景观格局发生了显著变化.松嫩平原西部现有沼泽湿地面积4 488.13 km2,近50年来减少了62.54%;2000年斑块密度为1954年的1.67倍,且最大斑块面积和最大斑块周长均减小,说明沼泽景观破碎化严重;松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地分布质心发生偏移,近50年,向西北方向偏移了19.4 km,主轴方向顺时针旋转了9.23o,表明了沼泽湿地景观具有破碎化和萎缩的趋势,并且呈现出不平衡性:湿地的萎缩程度偏重于研究区的东南部;得出松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地减少及生态环境恶化主要是由该区生态环境原生脆弱性和人类不合理的开发利用方式导致的.通过景观格局变化的研究为沼泽湿地格局优化和生物保护提供参考.     

Quantitative study of landscape patterns in homogenous carbonate rock distributed regions in Guizhou

With the utilization of GIS software, research is conducted on （a） the characteristics of cells, fragmentation, and patch fractal of landscape based on homogenous carbonate rocks in Guizhou; （b） causes of the formation of these characteristics. It has been found that under the influence of lithology, the landscape of the study region as a whole shows consistency, yet embodies distinct diversity inside. The consistency is embodied in the following aspects： （a） the preponderant landscape consists of bushes and small woods; （b） secondary landscape is characteristic of forests and grounds covered with grass; （c） of all the patches making up the study area small patches are in the majority, with positive-skewed distribution of patches-as a result, steep peaks are characteristic of the charts showing the distribution of patches. The factor of scale is not taken into account in the study of patches. The shapes of patches tend to be regular with strong disturbances from human activities, and consequently, the values of fractal dimensions of landscape types tend to get smaller. The fragmentation of patches is more apparent in landscape under influence of human activities than the one without these disturbances. Compared with regions characteristic of homogenous dolomite, the characteristics of homogenous limestone areas are described as follows： （a） low utilization rate of water resource; （b） uneven distribution of diversified landscape; （c） weak resistance against disturbances from human activities; （d） the continuous degradation, ever-increasing fragmentation, intensification of spatial heterogeneity, and the deteriorating stability of landscape.     

PDC钻头切削齿破岩载荷规律的分析

对PDC钻头冠部形状及不同的布齿密度和切削齿在不同的磨损状态下对PDC钻头切削齿受力的影响进行了分析；用相邻的3个切削齿之间的关系(不同的切削齿与切削齿之间的径向距离和切削齿之间的高度差)来分析PDC钻头冠部形状和切削齿布齿密度对切削齿受力的影响，以及将切削齿的磨损状态简化成与切削齿在钻头上装配方向垂直的平面来分析切削齿磨损状态对切削齿受力的影响。     

顶管施工中顶力与顶程关系及其影响因素分析

以上海某长距离急曲线顶管工程为例，通过现场实测4节管段顶进过程中的顶力，研究了顶力随顶程的变化规律，系统分析了顶进过程中顶力的主要影响因素，得到了一些有用的结论。     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

高新技术产业集聚的城市化响应与反馈机制研究

高新技术产业集聚与城市化存在互动机制。一方面,高新技术产业结构效应影响了城市化动力机制,集聚效应则促进了城市外部经济的发展,使城市化表现出不同的模式特征和地域特征;另一方面,城市化促进了高新技术发展所需要素资源的聚集与流动,为高新技术产业集聚提供人力资本保障,还为高新技术企业提供创新的源动力。文章以苏州高新区的高新技术产业发展和城市化互动关系佐证了这一理论,并认为建立二者之间切实可行的调控模式是当务之急。