东亚夏季风建立前青藏高原地气温差变化特征

利用青藏高原地区112个站1980～2001年和部分站点1960～2000年的气温、地温资料,采用经验正交EOF和旋转经验正交REOF等方法,对东亚夏季风爆发前青藏高原地气温差的变化特征进行分析,并对其与东亚夏季风之间的联系进行了分析.结果表明,青藏高原地气温差一般超前气温、地温1个月达到全年最大值,比中国中东部同纬度...     

气候变暖的适应行为与黑龙江省夏季低温冷害的变化

与气候变暖相联系的极端天气、气候事件及其影响的研究正日益受到重视,极端事件与气候变化直接相关,而极端事件的影响还与人类的适应行为密切相关。本文以农业对温度变化最敏感的黑龙江省为例,分析了变暖对夏季低温冷害事件的影响。结果显示,变暖后夏季出现低温冷害临界气温的概率减小;但由于人们追求更高经济效益的适应行为,在变暖的情况下种植更适应较暖气候条件的农作物,低温冷害的发生的频率和强度并不一定随变暖而减少,但作物单产期望值还是会增加。     

贺兰山地区树轮碳氧同位素与夏季风降水的相关性讨论

分析了贺兰山地区油松树轮的稳定碳氧同位素组成对环境因素的响应关系 , 发现树轮碳氧同位素组成均与当年 5～ 9月总降水量具有较好的响应关系 , 碳同位素组成与 5～ 9月总降水量呈负相关关系 ,而氧同位素组成与 5～ 9月总降水量呈正相关关系 ,二者都可较好地反映该地区夏季风降水量的变化.同时 ,碳氧同位素的相关性分析表明二者具有一定程度的负相关性.树轮碳氧同位素的分馏机理十分复杂,其同位素组成不仅与降水量有关,同时还受其他环境因素的影响,单纯利用一种同位素指标来提取相应的气候信息,存在很大的不确定性.在本研究中 ,同时采用两种同位素指标来研究其气候意义 ,使得出的结论更加可靠.因此 ,夏季风降水量是控制该地区树轮稳定碳氧同位素组成的主要因素.     

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.     

South Africa's coastal-breeding white-breasted cormorants: population trends,breeding season and movements,and diet

White-breasted cormorants Phalacrocorax [carbo] lucidus breed around South Africa's coast and at inland localities. Along the coasts of the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape provinces, numbers breeding were similar during the periods 1977–1981 (1 116 pairs at 41 localities) and 2008–2012 (1 280 pairs at 41 localities). Along the coast of KwaZulu-Natal (not counted in 1977–1981), 197 pairs bred at nine localities in 2008–2012, when the overall number breeding around South Africa's coastline was about 1 477 pairs. Between the two study periods, numbers decreased in the Northern and Western Cape provinces following the loss of several breeding localities, but they increased in the Eastern Cape. In the Western Cape, however, numbers were stable east of Cape Agulhas and at nine well-monitored West Coast localities that were surveyed from 1978 to 2012. White-breasted cormorants breed throughout the year, with breeding at some localities more seasonal than at others and the timing of peaks in breeding varying at and between localities. In the vicinity of Saldanha Bay/Langebaan Lagoon (Western Cape), in Algoa Bay (Eastern Cape) and in northern KwaZulu-Natal, it is likely that birds moved between breeding localities in different years, although breeding often occurred at the same locality over several years. Human disturbance, presence of predators, competition for breeding space and occurrence of breeding by other waterbirds may influence movements between colonies. Securing sufficient good habitat at which white-breasted cormorants may breed will be important for conservation of the species. The species may breed at an age of 4 years, possibly younger. The bulk of their diet around South Africa's coast consists of inshore marine and estuarine fish species that are not intensively exploited by humans.     

Effects of spring–summer grazing on longitudinal dune surface in southern Gurbantunggut Desert

Intensive grazing in spring–summer has been responsible for environmental degradation of the Gurbantunggut Desert in recent years. The coverage of plants and biological crusts, sand surface stability and physicochemical characteristics of soil on the dune surface were conducted in 2002 (winter grazing) and 2005 (spring–summer grazing). The results showed that over 80% of the total area of the dune surface was covered by well-developed biological crusts and plants in 2002, when the interdune and middle to lower part of dune slopes were stabilized and only the crest had 10–40 m wide mobile belt. Affected by spring–summer grazing in 2005, over 80% of the total cover of biological crust was destructed and the plant coverage only reached 1/5 of that in 2002, especially the ephemeral plant cover had a great change. The value of sand transport potential in 2005 only reached 1/3 of that in 2002, but the total surface activity in 2005 was 1.6 times stronger than that in 2002. Meanwhile the mobile area began to expand from the dune top to the whole dune surface following spring–summer grazing. Compared with 2002, medium sand content of the dune surface soil increased by 13.9%, while that of fine and very fine sands decreased by 7.4% and 8.0% respectively in 2005 and the soil organic matter in 2005 was only about 1/2 of that in 2002. It is obvious that the presence of snow cover and frozen soil in winter could avoid the surface structure destruction in winter, while spring–summer grazing made excessive damage to biologic crusts and ephemeral plants. Spring is the main windy season in Gurbantunggut Desert and therefore intensive activity of dune surface occurred following spring–summer grazing, which led to a great loss of fine sand and organic matter. It can be seen that grazing season have a significant influence on the sustainable development of the desert ecosystem in Northwest China.     

新疆春夏洪灾受灾面积长期变化趋势及其对农作物的影响

选用新疆1950-2006年84个县2038条洪水灾害资料,以春夏3～8月洪灾受灾面积为研究对象,用最小二乘法与二阶主值函数分析各月受灾面积的长期变化趋势,非参数化秩统计量做趋势的显著性检验,计算累计距平值判定时间序列的拐点,以拐点前后的变差系数比较受灾面积振幅的变化,采用morlet小波分析其振荡周期发现,春季3～5月农作物苗期是融雪洪水多发季节,洪灾受灾面积占全年的37%,各月受灾面积均有长期增加的趋势.其中,春季洪灾高发期的5月增加趋势十分显著,平均每年增加2.01%,是春季农田防洪的重点时期.夏季6～8月各种农作物的旺盛生长期,是暴雨洪水的频繁发生期,受灾面积占全年的60%,夏季各月洪灾受灾面积均有长期增加的趋势,其中,洪灾高发期的6、7月增加趋势十分显著,7月平均每年增加2.13%,6月增加1.86%,因此6、7月是夏季农田防洪的重点时期.另外,洪灾高发期的5、6、7月存在12～15年、5～7年的振荡周期,以及2～3年的小扰动,各类周期振荡在拐点之前比较弱,之后振荡较强.其中,春季3、4、5月拐点在1984年,夏季6、7、8月拐点分别在1974.年、1986年和1988年.同样以拐点为界,之前是洪灾少发时期,之后即开始处于洪灾频发期气候背景上的年代际与年际尺度振荡,另外,拐点前后平均受灾面积相差很大,增幅在58%～164%之间.     

贵州主汛期极端降水事件及其环流特征分析

利用贵州地区52个测站1961-2006年历年主汛期(6-8月)逐日降水资料,定义了不同台站的极端降水阈值,统计了贵州近46年主汛期极端降水事件发生的频次,并分析了极端降水的时空分布特征、周期振荡特征以及极端降水事件典型多年、少年的环流特征.结果表明:贵州主汛期极端降水自北向南逐渐增大,极端降水事件存在着明显的年际、年代际变化特征,并存在2.9 a、20 a的周期振荡特征,在贵州主汛期极端降水事件偏多和偏少时期,其环流特征存在着显著的差异.     

An exceptionally strengthened East Asian summer monsoon event between 19.9 and 17.1 ka BP recorded in a Hulu stalagmite

A stalagmite-based isotope record (No. H82) from Nanjing Hulu Cave, spanning from 16.5 to 10.3 ka BP, provided strong evidence for a coherence relation between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the North Atlantic climates on millennial time scales. Here we extend the high-resolution δ 18O time series back to 22.1 ka BP with additional 7 230Th dates and 573 stable isotope measurements on the lower part of that sample. The new record with a decadal resolution, piecing together with the previous data, p...     

中国夏季高温日数时空变化及其环流背景

本研究利用1955~2005年全国193个气象站点夏季(5~9月)逐日最高气温资料,分析了我国东部地区夏季高温日数变化的空间分布特征和时间变化规律。经验正交函数分析结果显示高温日数的变化有明显的区域特征,第一模态表现为区域整体一致的异常,中心区位于长江中下游地区,第二模态表现为江淮流域与华南反向变化的特点,第三模态表现为东南部地区与西南、华北的反向变化。这些模态与高层大气环流的变化有关。分析表明ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)、赤道印度洋和西太平洋暖池海温,可以通过影响西太平洋和东亚地区大气环流而影响我国夏季高温日数频次,其中ENSO和西太平洋暖池区海温对高温日数变化第一模态的相关比较明显;而热带印度洋海温对第二模态有显著影响。与前期海温的关系分析可知,第一模态与前期夏季的西太平洋暖池和前期冬季赤道东太平洋海温相关关系最好,第二模态则受热带印度洋前期冬季海温影响最大,这对高温预测具有指示意义。