Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

Study on the Source Parameters of Earthquakes in the Middle Eastern Area of North Tianshan in Xinjiang

INTRODUCTIONThe study of source parameters is usually based oninversionfromobservational seismic waveformdata.Seismic wave affected bygeometric spreading,inelastic attenuation,scatteringandsite effects ofthe mediumontheir way fromsource to station.Therefo…     

当代地理学特征：发展趋势及中国地理学研究进展

地理学是一门研究地球表层自然要素与人文要素相互作用及其时空变化规律的科学，它广泛运用现代科学技术手段，具有跨越自然科学与社会科学的性质。面对当前全球变化和可持续发展的世界性科学问题，地理学家根据学科特点和领域优势，抓住机遇、迎接挑战。目前主要研究地球表层系统各界面间的物理、化学、生物及人文过程，探讨多种过程的相互作用机理，探求人类活动与资源环境间相互协调、可持续发展的规律。地理学以“格局—结构—过程—机理”的研究思路贯穿始终。随着新技术、新方法的使用以及观测资料的不断积累，实验测试数据质量的提高和数据量的增加，当今地理学的研究在空间尺度上同时向微观、宏观两个方向扩展，模型研究不断科学化，已具备现代科学的主要特征。总体上，表现为部门地理研究深化，区域综合研究加强。长期以来，中国地理学在自然地理的综合研究、地表自然过程研究、城市与区域发展研究，以及面向社会现实的应用基础研究等方面取得了较好进展。     

东北地区矿业开发态势与矿山环境地质问题综合研究

在论述东北地区矿业开发态势的同时,阐述了区内能源矿产、金属矿产及非金属矿产开采引发的主要环境地质问题,针对区内复杂的矿山环境地质问题现状,提出了开展东北地区矿山环境地质综合研究问题的工作思路.     

Microthermometric measurement of fluid inclusions and its constraints on genesis of PGE-polymetallic deposits in Lower Cambrian black rock series, southern China

Systematic microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic deposits hosted in the Lower Cambrian black rock series in southern China were performed, and the results suggest: (1) there exist two types of fluid inclusions. TypeⅠis of NaCl-H2O system with low-medium salinity, and its homogenization temperatures (Th) and salinities are 106.9- 286.4℃ and ( 0.8- 21.8) wt%NaCl eq. respectively; TypeⅡ is of CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system with medium-high salinities, and its homogenization temperatures and salinities range from 120.1℃ to 269.6℃ and ( 11.4- 31.4) wt%NaCl eq., respectively. The typeⅡ fluid inclusions have been discovered for the first time in this kind of deposits; (2) two generations of ore-forming fluids were recognized. Characteristics of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic ores and carbonate-quartz stockworks in the underlying phosphorites are almost of no difference, they may represent ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenic stage. The peak value of homogenization temperature of those fluid inclusions is about 170℃, while their salinities possess a remarkable bimodal distribution pattern with two peak values of (27-31) wt%NaCl eq. and (4-6) wt%NaCl eq. On the contrary, fluid inclusions in the carbonate-quartz veins in the hanging wall may represent ore-forming fluids at the post-metallogenetic stage. The homogenization temperatures and the peak values of salinities are mostly 130-170℃ and (12-14) wt%NaCl eq., respectively; (3) nobel gas isotopic composition analyses in combination with the microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions suggest that the ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenetic stage were probably derived from mixing of basinal hot brines with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and seawater with the NaCl-H2O system; (4) in the Early Cambrian, the basinal hot brines were trapped in the Caledonian basins, which were distributed along the southern margin of the Yangtze Craton, and where giant thick sediments were accumulated, and expelled and migrated laterally along the strata because of the pressure caused by overlying sediments. The basinal hot brines absorbed Ni, Mo, V, PGE from the surrounding rocks and were transformed into ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and medium-high salinities, then ascended along faults and mixed with seawater of the NaCl-H2O system, and finally PGE-polymetallic deposits or occurrences were formed in the black rock series.     

云南东北部拱王山末次冰期

1 Introduction The Gongwang mountains constitute one of the few high m ountains of irrefutable late Pleistocene glaciation in eastern China. This area is one of the m ost extensively studied Quaternary geologicallocationsin eastern China and the interpret…     

Counting Beans: Agrobiodiversity,Indigeneity, and Agrarian Reform

In‐field conservation of locally domesticated crop varieties ameliorates agrobiodiversity losses, but the interaction among nationally regulated socioeconomic factors at the local scale tends to discourage this. Analyses of household surveys conducted in Ecuador demonstrate that state and nongovernmental institutions interact to discourage cultivation of locally domesticated varieties of beans (Phaseolus spp.). Land privatization, agricultural extension, and credit programs favor market production of introduced modern bean varieties, and locally domesticated varieties are noted for favorable nutrition, culinary, and agroecological qualities. Resolving disconnections between the market and social values for landrace beans may provide agrobiodiversity conservation opportunities.     

Grassland productivity in an alpine environment in response to climate change

Situated in a climatically stressful environment, alpine grassland is sensitive to subtle climate changes in its productivity. We remedy the current deficiency in studying grassland productivity by taking the integrated effect of all relevant factors into consideration. The relative importance of temperature, rainfall and evaporation to the alpine grassland productivity in western China was determined through analysis of their relationship with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 1981 and 2000. Climate warming stimulated grassland productivity in the 1980s, but hampered it in the 1990s. Temperature is more important than rainfall to grassland productivity early in the growing season. However, their relative importance is reversed late in the growing season. Monthly summer month rainfall modified by maximum monthly temperature is a good predictor of alpine grassland productivity at 62.0 per cent. However, the best predictor is water deficiency, which is able to improve the estimation accuracy to 78.3 per cent. Hence, the impact of temperature on grassland productivity is better studied indirectly through evaporation.     

GGR Critical Review of Analytical Developments in 2003

The articles that comprise this critical review serve to draw attention to research papers published in specific fields of interest during 2003, provide critical comment on the relevance and importance of individual publications in these fields, and offer an overview of the comparative importance of advances in particular areas. In this way, these articles aim to assist experts in the field by keeping them informed of relevant recent publications, as well as providing an important resource for students or early career researchers who are embarking on studies in an area new to them. This year, five papers provide summaries of developments in bulk sample determinations employing (1) ICP-AES and ICP-MS (trace elements), (2) XRF and atomic absorption spectrometry and INAA, (3) isotope ratio measurements (TIMS, MC-ICP-MS, ICP-MS, ToF), as well as in situ measurements conducted using (4) secondary ion mass spectrometry and (5) laser ablation ICP-MS (trace element and isotope ratio determinations).     

Kübler Index and K-Ar Ages of Illite in the Yinshan Polymetallic Deposit, Jiangxi Province, South China: Analyses and Implications

Abstract. The Yinshan polymetallic deposit is a hydrothermal vein-type deposit closely related to Late Jurassic felsic-inter-mediate volcanic-subvolcanic activity in Jiangxi Province, South China. Illite is a major alteration mineral observed in the deposit. Our study shows that the Kübler index of the illite has a close relation to ore-forming fluids of different stages of hydrothermal alteration and mineralization. The early Pb-Zn-Ag mineralization dated at 130–136 Ma is characterized by relatively low water/rock ratios and diffusive fluid movement within phyllite, whereas the later Cu-Au-S mineralization at 122 -125 Ma was accompanied by higher water/rock ratios and localized fluid flow through fractures and channels. Illite formed in the early Pb-Zn-Ag mineralization stage contains swelling layers while the illite formed in the later Cu-Au-S mineralization stage has no swelling layers but was associated with intensive chloritization. The last stage of mineralization (at 104 Ma) was minor and did not produce significant amounts of illite.