Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.     

Thermodynamic Modelling of Ore-Forming Mechanism of the Changkeng Gold-Silver Deposits in Guangdong Province

The Changkeng gold-silver deposits consist of a sediment-hosted, disseminated gold deposit and a replacement-type silver deposit. The mineralizations of gold and silver are zoned and closely related to the silicification of carbonate and clastic rocks, so that siliceous ores dominate in the deposit. The mineralizing temperature ranges mainly from 300 to 170℃, and K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and Cl- are the major ions in the ore-forming fluid. Calculations of distribution of metal complexes show that gold is mainly transported by hydrosulphide complexes, but chloride complexes of silver, iron, lead, and zinc, which are transformed into hydroxyl and hydrosulphide complexes under neutral to weak-alkaline circumstances in the late stage, predominate in the ore-forming solutions. Water-rock interaction is confirmed to be the effective mechanism for the formation of silver ores by computer modelling of reaction of hydrothermal solution with carbonate rocks. The solubility analyses demonstrate that the precipitation     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE POSSIBLE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS LATE OR EARLY ONSET

The characteristics of atmospheric heat source associated with the summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (SCS) are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. A criterion of the SCS summer monsoon onset is defined by the atmospheric hea…     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

山东省气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

利用全省 2 7个台站 1 96 1～ 1 998年的温度、降水、日照等基本气象要素资料 ,对山东省气候变化特点进行了分析 ,并对冬小麦生产潜力进行了计算、分析。结果表明 ,山东省年、季平均气温呈波动性增暖趋势 ,降水量呈减少趋势。气候变暖有利于生产潜力的提高 ,冬小麦气候生产潜力总的变化趋势是波动性的上升 ,但较光温生产潜力倾向率小 ,反映了小麦生育期内光、温、水的综合影响。     

一种新型降水预报评分方法

在目前已有的降水评分办法的基础上，对原有办法存在的弊端进行了有效的改进，使得降水的预报评估与预报服务业务结合更紧密，也更贴近公众的感受。主要介绍了新方法的基本思路、关键技术、实现方法等。评分系统已投入业务运行，成为考核预报员业务水平的重要依据。     

星载被动微波遥感反演降水算法回顾

根据不同的降水反演方法对多种利用SSM／I、TMI反演降水的算法进行归类总结，按下垫面检测和降水反演算法两大步骤进行简要描述，并分经验法、半经验(半物理)法、物理模式法及物理廓线法4类方法对多种算法作了回顾。     

1998年南海夏季风爆发前后区域动能收支研究

利用1998年南海季风试验(SCSMEX)资料和区域动能收支方程，对南海南部和北部两个区域该年夏季风爆发前后的区域总动能和区域扰动动能收支进行了诊断分析。结果表明，南海北区夏季风爆发前后动能主要在高层制造，大部分动能被摩擦消耗，南区夏季风爆发前后动能主要在高层被破坏，摩擦项充当动能源。扰动动能主要在高层和部分在低层制造。在此期间，南海地区一直向邻近区域输出动能。     

TRMM卫星微波成像仪分级产品及其反演降水算法

文章叙述了获取定量降水信息的意义，简要介绍了对热带测雨卫星TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission)的仪器、美国国家宇航局提供的微波成像仪TMI(TRMM Microwave Imager)分级产品。对比了物理方法和经验方法反演降水的特点，并对一些经验方法以及倾斜对流系统对反演降水的影响、动态聚类分析、神经网络反演方法的研究成果进行了介绍。     

天津盛夏降水趋势与初夏华北高压的统计分析

根据初夏(6月)的天气气候演变，预测盛夏(7～8月)的短期气候趋势，一直是急需解决的难题。文章揭示了自1958年以来天津盛夏降水趋势与初夏时节临近地区上空的环流特征之间的统计关系。结果表明，初夏华北高压强时盛夏天津降水偏少，反之盛夏天津降水偏多，不仅逐年的对应关系显著，而且变化趋势相反，转折时期也一致。初步解释了20世纪70年代以前天津(华北)盛夏多雨和80年代至今天津(华北)少雨的物理原因。以此为主要根据建立了初夏对于盛夏天津降水的短期气候预测方法，1998～2003年连续6年预报正确。