集合预报及其在中期天气预报中的应用

作者概述了集合预报的基本概念，集合预报中期天气预报中的意义与作用，现有的主要集合预报产品以及集合预报在美国美国国家气象中心和欧洲中期天气预报的业务运行。简要介绍了我国国家气象中心在动力延伸预报和集合预报方面的试验研究情况。     

EFFECTS OF TROPOPAUSE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ON FRONTOGENESIS*

A two-dimensional,semi-geostrophic numerical model incorporating the tropopause and stratosphere is used to investigate the effects of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and latent heat release on the frontogenetic process and the structure of the resulting frontal zone.It is demonstrated that(1) the inclusion of tropopause and stratosphere significantly changes the frontal structure only in the upper levels;(2) a clearly defined quasi-equivalent barotropic structure and a region of upward motion of finite width appear when a positive potential vorticity anomaly exists on the warm side of the maximum baroclinity in the lower troposphere,especially when it is located on the south edge of the baroclinic zone;(3) the above mentioned structure deteriorates as the frontogenesis proceeds in a dry atmosphere but can be maintained in a moist frontogenetic process with condensational heating;(4) the combination of a positive potential vorticity anomaly and the latent heat release is able to accelerate the frontogenesis significantly with the time needed to form an intense frontal zone reduced to less than 15 h.The results have significant theoretical importance in understanding the complex nature of frontal structure and frontogenesis,especially in understanding the dynamic structure of the subtropical frontal zone observed during early summer over East Asia.     

闽南地区汛期短历时降水气候特征

通过对厦门，安溪，九仙同山峰尤溪等４站２５年５－６月逐时降水资料的统计分析，初步揭示了汛期闽南地区不同形环境下的短历时降水的气候和条件气候的分布特征，得到若干对短时了和服务有参考价值的结论。     

东亚冬季风的演变特征

文章主要讨论了东亚冬季风和冷涌的演变特征，并与南亚作了对比，发现在东亚地区，冬季风演变主要表现为10月中旬经向环流的突变及9月初、11月中旬和1月末对流层低层温度的3次突变；而在南亚地区，经向环流的变化不如东亚地区明显，而且高层要先于低层变化，对流层低层温度存在2次突变。在整个冬季，东亚地区冷涌的演变过程，主要表现为南海地区冷涌在12月份出现最高频率，而西太平洋冷涌在1月份出现最高频率；南亚地区冷涌在12月份出现最高频率，但远小于东亚地区且衰减速度很快。另一个不同点是东亚地区的冷涌强度是往上衰减的，而南亚地区的冷涌强度则是往上增强的。这说明东亚冬季风和南亚冬季风的性质有较大的区别。     

我国热带亚热带部分地区花岗岩和片麻岩中黑云母风化研究

综合应用Ｘ射线衍射、扫描电镜、透射电镜及偏光显微镜等技术手段研究了我国热带、亚热带部分地区花岗岩和片麻岩中黑云母的风化现象。结果表明，化学风化产物主要有黑云母／蛭石不规则间层矿物、水黑云母、蛭石、０．７ｎｍ埃洛石及铁的氢氧化物（氧化物）等。影响黑云母风化及次生产物形成的主要因素包括黑云母的晶体结构和化学成分、气候、风化壳母岩的矿物成分等。     

The mean and turbulence structure simulation of the monsoon trough boundary layer using a one-dimensional model withe-l ande-ε closures

An attempt has been made here to study the sensitivity of the mean and the turbulence structure of the monsoon trough boundary layer to the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation for two stations Delhi and Calcutta, using one-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model withe-ε turbulence closure. An analytical discussion of the problems associated with the constants of the dissipation equation is presented. It is shown here that the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation is quite crucial and the turbulence structure is very sensitive to these constants. The modification of the dissipation equation adopted by earlier studies, that is, approximating the Tke generation (due to shear and buoyancy production) in theε-equation by max (shear production, shear + buoyancy production), can be avoided by a suitable choice of the constants suggested here. The observed turbulence structure is better simulated with these constants. The turbulence structure simulation with the constants recommended by Aupoixet al (1989) (which are interactive in time) for the monsoon region is shown to be qualitatively similar to the simulation obtained with the constants suggested here, thus implying that no universal constants exist to regulate dissipation rate. Simulations of the mean structure show little sensitivity to the type of the closure parameterization betweene-l ande-ε closures. However the turbulence structure simulation withe-ε. closure is far better compared to thee-l model simulations. The model simulations of temperature profiles compare quite well with the observations whenever the boundary layer is well mixed (neutral) or unstable. However the models are not able to simulate the nocturnal boundary layer (stable) temperature profiles. Moisture profiles are simulated reasonably better. With one-dimensional models, capturing observed wind variations is not up to the mark.     

Magnetostratigraphy and palaeoclimate of Red Clay sequences from Chinese Loess Plateau

Two Red Clay profiles near Xi’an and Xifeng were investigated in an attempt to determine magnetostratigraphic and palaeoclimatic records. The results show that aeolian dust accumulation and the related East Asia palaeomonsoon system had begun by 6.5 Ma, and it is deduced that the Tibetan Plateau had reached a significant elevation at that time. The late Tertiary palaeoclimatic history of the Red Clay as reflected by magnetic susceptibility is reconstructed during the period of 6.5–2.5 Ma. Stepwise increase in susceptibility of aeolian dust accumulation appears to have a close correlation to the uplift processes of the Tibetan Plateau. The remarkable increase of aeolian dust accumulation at 3.2 Ma appears to be due to the influence of global ice volume on the East Asia monsoon. Palaeomonsoon variation during the late Tertiary as recorded in the Red Clay sequences from the Chinese Loess Plateau can be regarded as the product of a number of interacting factors, such as uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, solar radiation, global ice volume, etc. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Foundation of Xi’an Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE POSSIBLE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS LATE OR EARLY ONSET

The characteristics of atmospheric heat source associated with the summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (SCS) are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. A criterion of the SCS summer monsoon onset is defined by the atmospheric hea…     

洛阳市2003年夏季多雨环流特征及汛期降水预报

分析了2003年洛阳夏季多雨环流特征，探讨了汛期降水偏多的预报因子，并用副高特征量因子建立了汛期降水预测模型。     

1998年南海夏季风爆发前后区域动能收支研究

利用1998年南海季风试验(SCSMEX)资料和区域动能收支方程，对南海南部和北部两个区域该年夏季风爆发前后的区域总动能和区域扰动动能收支进行了诊断分析。结果表明，南海北区夏季风爆发前后动能主要在高层制造，大部分动能被摩擦消耗，南区夏季风爆发前后动能主要在高层被破坏，摩擦项充当动能源。扰动动能主要在高层和部分在低层制造。在此期间，南海地区一直向邻近区域输出动能。