Study on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin

Studies on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin, which is regarded as a key ecological shelter, will contribute to flood control and environmental protection for the Upper Yangtze River Basin. In two typical catchments--the Fujiang River Catchment and the Wujiang River Catchment, rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the rain-runoff processes of yellow soil and limestone soil in three types of land use--forestland, farmland and grassland. Results showed that （1） within the same rainfall process, overland flow occurs first on farmland, then on grassland, and finally on forestland; （2） soil surface coverage has a great impact on the occurrence and amount of overland flow. The runoff amount can increase 2-4 times after the coverage is removed; （3） the infiltration before the occurrence of overland flow will decrease because of higher gravel contents of soil, but it takes no effect on infiltration once overland flow becomes stable; （4） the runoff coefficient of the limestone soil forestland is greater than that of the yellow soil forest land, but less than that of the farmland; （5） three empirical infiltration models, including Horton＇ model, Kostiakov＇ model, and modified Kostiakov＇ model, were compared by using the observed results under rainfall simulation. The results showed that the Kostiakov＇ model performed better than both the Horton＇ model and modified Kostiakov model. According to the results of this research, the Kostiakov＇s model can be used to simulate rainfall infiltration when water erosion is modeled in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin.     

GPS observations of the ionospheric F2-layer behavior during the 20th November 2003 geomagnetic storm over South Korea

The ionospheric F2-layer peak density (NmF2) and its height (hmF2) are of great influence on the shape of the ionospheric electron density profile Ne (h) and may be indicative of other physical processes within the ionosphere, especially those due to geomagnetic storms. Such parameters are often estimated using models such as the semiempirical international reference ionosphere (IRI) models or are measured using moderately priced to expensive instrumentation, such as ionosondes or incoherent scatter radars. Global positioning system (GPS) observations have become a powerful tool for mapping high-resolution ionospheric structures, which can be used to study the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms. In this paper, we describe how 3-D ionospheric electron density profiles were produced from data of the dense permanent Korean GPS network using the tomography reconstruction technique. These profiles are verified by independent ionosonde data. The responses of GPS-derived parameters at the ionospheric F2-layer to the 20th November 2003 geomagnetic storm over South Korea are investigated. A fairly large increase in the electron density at the F2-layer peak (the NmF2) (positive storm) has been observed during this storm, which is accompanied by a significant uplift in the height of the F2 layer peak (the hmF2). This is confirmed by independent ionosonde observations. We suggest that the F2-layer peak height uplift and NmF2 increase are mainly associated with a strong eastward electric field, and are not associated with the increase of the O/N₂ ratio obtained from the GUVI instruments aboard the TIMED satellite. It is also inferred that the increase in NmF2 is not caused by the changes in neutral composition, but is related to other nonchemical effects, such as dynamical changes of vertical ion motions induced by winds and E × B drifts, tides and waves in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region, which can be dynamically coupled upward to generate ionospheric perturbations and oscillations.     

华北典型箕状断陷盆地层序地层学模式及其与油气赋存关系

本文根据层序地层学的基本原理,立足东部箕状断陷盆地的特点,以冀中拗陷和二连盆地为重点研究对象,提炼出陆相断陷盆地层序地层学模式,在缓坡带,以风暴浪基面作为“陆架边角”的参照物,层序地层特征相似于海相被动大陆边缘背景;在陡坡带则截然不同,并以湖面与边界断裂的交点取代“陆架边角”,各体系域所含沉积体系与海相模式不尽相同,在盆地形成初期的层序,低水位体系域发育,湖泊消亡以后,主要发育高水位体系域。此外,本文还探索了层序地层与油气赋存的关系,指出富砂的“盆底扇”是今后勘探开发的重要方向。     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

额济纳绿洲沙尘暴沉积特征

1 Introduction Oases are unique ecosystems and important residences for our ancestors in arid and semiarid regions of the world, and have deeply been imprinted by human actions, such as Jericho oasis of Jordan Valley, Jarmo oasis of the Euphrates River an…     

Control of dust emissions by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use in northern China: An examination based on dust storm frequency from 1960 to 2003

The degree to which dust emissions are controlled by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use was investigated using the dust storm frequency (DSF) and data from more than 300 meteorological stations throughout northern China. Our analysis showed that most dust emissions originated in gobi deserts that developed in piedmont alluvial fans of the Kunlun, Qilian and Helan mountains. Dust emissions are low from other gobi desert regions, such as the northern Gurbantunggut and eastern Taklimakan, where high vegetation coverage restrained dust emissions or where dust-size particles are not abundant after a long period of strong wind erosion. Sandy deserts with relatively high vegetation coverage or an extensive cover by mobile sands are not a major dust source. Although the highest dust emissions did not appear in regions with the highest wind energy, DSF trends in each region from 1960 to 2003 were closely related to local wind activity. DSF was low in regions with high levels of human activity, where the mean DSF from 1960 to 2003 did not exceed 4 days/year; even from the 1960s to the early 1970s, the period with the greatest DSF, frequency did not exceed 8 days/year, which indicates that extensive land use did not contribute to DSF. The low DSF in these areas might result from the fact that although land use could produce abundant fine soil fractions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture remained higher than in the gobi deserts of arid China, thereby decreasing dust-storm occurrence.     

早涝碱咸综合治理与生态环境良性循环

华北平原东部淡水资源短缺，旱涝碱成灾害限制了农业生产的可持续发展。海河的治理，解决了排洪排涝排咸出路。春季开发利用地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉。夏季利用伏雨洗盐排咸，增大降雨入渗，减少径流流失，防治渍涝灾害，把降雨转化为地下水资源。秋冬引蓄河水，回灌地下水补源。以土壤与潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库，以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为指标，最大限度地把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。地表水地下水联合运用，促使水资源采补平衡，降雨灌溉淋洗脱盐强于干旱蒸发积盐过程，地下水淡化强于矿化过程。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理，水土资源可持续利用，经济社会可持续发展，生态环境良性循环。     

自适应网格技术在MM5中的应用研究

结合一次暴雨过程，将自适应网格技术应用于中尺度模式MM5中进行数值试验，同时对比自适应网格方案和固定网格方案的优劣，对模拟结果作了诊断分析。结果表明：对于此次降水过程，自适应网格模拟的效果取决于一些参数的选择。     

春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系

利用1948-2002年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压资料以及中国160站的降水和气温资料，分析了春季北方气旋活动频数和强度的时空变化特征，以及两者与中国降水和气温的相关关系。结果表明：春季北方气旋活动频繁，存在明显的两个高值中心，分别位于蒙古国的中部和我国东北北部地区。春季北方气旋活动频数和强度均存在明显的年际和年代际变化。伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变，20世纪70年代中后期无论是频数还是强度均出现了显著的突变。春季北方气旋活动频数主要对我国北方地区的降水和气温有一定影响，活动频数多(少)年，我国华北大部、新疆北部降水偏少(多)；北疆地区气温回升(下降)，甘、宁、陕、内部分地区偏冷(暖)。80-90年代春季北方气旋活动频数的偏少，强度的减弱，导致我国北方地区沙尘暴次数比70年代减少.