春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系

利用1948-2002年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压资料以及中国160站的降水和气温资料，分析了春季北方气旋活动频数和强度的时空变化特征，以及两者与中国降水和气温的相关关系。结果表明：春季北方气旋活动频繁，存在明显的两个高值中心，分别位于蒙古国的中部和我国东北北部地区。春季北方气旋活动频数和强度均存在明显的年际和年代际变化。伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变，20世纪70年代中后期无论是频数还是强度均出现了显著的突变。春季北方气旋活动频数主要对我国北方地区的降水和气温有一定影响，活动频数多(少)年，我国华北大部、新疆北部降水偏少(多)；北疆地区气温回升(下降)，甘、宁、陕、内部分地区偏冷(暖)。80-90年代春季北方气旋活动频数的偏少，强度的减弱，导致我国北方地区沙尘暴次数比70年代减少.     

热带地区100 hPa东风气流的气候效应(Ⅱ): 与华北夏季降水的关系

利用1954-1998年NCAR／NCEP再分析资料及同期我国160个测站月降水资料，分析了热带地区100hPa东风与华北夏季降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）从春季到夏季，东风强度与华北夏季降水具有显著而稳定的正相关关系。（2）弱东风年夏季，印度洋及印度次大陆表面温度均为正异常，然而赤道印度洋地区的正异常明显强于其南北两侧。海温异常的这一分布特征，一方面使得100hPa东风减弱；另一方面使得南亚地区海陆热力对比减弱，导致南亚夏季风偏弱，进而造成由该季风区向华北地区的水汽输送减少，华北地区干旱。     

近百年中国东部夏季降水的时空变率

利用中国东部25°N以北28个站1880-1999年夏季季降水序列,用旋转复经验正交函数（RCEOF）方法,研究了中国东部地区百年干湿的时空演变规律。结果表明,夏季降水空间变率大值区依次为:长江中下游地区、淮河流域、江南、华北、西南及东北。除西南外的5个关键区大体上反映了从6月到8月夏季雨带自南向北椎进所滞留的地区。旋转空间位相分布揭示了长江中下游地区、江南、东北的旱涝异常主要表现为驻波振动特征;而淮河流域、华北、西南地区显示出降水异常信号具有部分的行波特征。尤其第4空间模显示出旱涝异常信号从东北南部可沿着黄淮下游传到长江下游地区。对于近百年中国东部地区夏季于湿变化,长江中下游地区、淮河流域、华北及东北四个地区都存在20-25年时间尺度的周期振荡;长江中下游地区及华北地区都存在准60年时间尺度的振荡周期;东北地区主要表现出36年时间尺度的振荡周期;淮河流域存在明显的70-80年时间尺度的振荡周期;华北地区存在的11年时间尺度的振荡周期恰好与太阳黑子活动的11年周期相一致。在年代际时间尺度（包括次年代际时间尺度）上,长江中下游、淮河流域及华北地区的夏季降水的变化与太阳活动有显著的正相关。     

南疆西部山区一次特大暴雨特征分析

通过对2001年9月22－23日南疆西北部山区特大暴雨的环流背景、物理量场、卫星云图分析，揭示了这场特大暴雨的物理机制和各要素场特征。     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

神头泉流量变化规律研究--灰色系统理论的具体应用

在分析神头泉流量衰减特征的前提下，利用灰色系统理论建立了描述神头泉流量变化规律的数学模型。以1985年为界，神头泉的流量变化过程可分为两个阶段，GM（1，1）模型与灰色预测校正模型则分别用于对这两个阶段的流量变化特征进行刻画。神头泉2000－2004年的流量预测值表明，在神头泉域保证90年代中期的高降水量和朔州市各地下水用户对泉域内的地下水不进行超采的基础上，神头泉的流量在未来的一段时间内会维持1993年以来的增长趋势。     

深海热泉生物——人类的基因资源宝库

广泛存在于大洋之中的深海热泉生物群落依靠化学自营维持生存与繁衍，构成了独特的生态系统，是对光合作用生态系统理论的一个挑战和补充，在生物学上有着重要的研究意义，对于揭示生命的起源与拓展生命的生存空间有着重要的学术价值，而且还孕育着广泛而重要的应用价值和商业前景，具体体现在新型医药开发、基因疗法、工业应用以及环境保护等方面。深海热泉生物将是人类最重要的基因资源宝库。     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Variabilité isotopique des précipitations sahéliennes à différentes échelles de temps à Niamey (Niger) entre 1992 et 1999 : implication climatiqueIsotopic variability of Sahelian rainfall at different time steps in Niamey (Niger, 1992–1999): climatic implications

The isotopic content of rainfall was measured in Niamey (Niger) over a period of eight years (1992–1999). Seasonal distribution of rainy events depends on the monsoon movement over the region. At the beginning and at the end of the rainy season, low rainfall, high temperatures and low relative humidity favour isotopic enrichment. In the middle of the rainy season, heavy rainfall, low temperatures and relative humidity close to saturation lead to isotopically depleted contents because of the mass effect; moreover, in the case of low rainfall, marked vertical convective development favours high altitude condensation. How far the Intertropical Front moves north, determines the quality of the rainy season and influences the isotopic contents. Thus the isotopic contents of rainfall are good climatic indicators. To cite this article: J.-D. Taupin et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 43–50     

Analysis and comparison of the tidal gravity observations obtained with LCR-ET20 spring gravimeter

Introduction The tidal variation signals of the solid Earth recorded with the modern measuring techniques can be used to provide effectively the means to cognize the Earths motion, deformation and structure character, especially to monitor the material motion in the Earths interior. In the recent 20 years, the distribution character of the global gravity field has made great progress since the continuous and deep theoretical studies in geophysics and geodesy domains. The successful manufactur…