河西走廊景观类型变化的社会经济驱动力研究

利用1995和2000年两个时期的Landsat5的4、3、2(RGB)波段合成影像解译结果, 采用中国科学院资源环境数据库中的全国1∶10万土地资源利用分类系统, 对河西走廊近5年来景观动态变化的驱动力进行了研究。为判断出区域景观类型变化趋势, 研究从区域背景变化格局分析入手, 对区域内部变化斑块的几何特征、变化数目及与GDP的对应关系进行统计分析, 得出河西走廊景观变化和社会经济发展具有较高的时空相关性, 进而用典型相关分析方法来推导了斑块变化的内在社会经济驱动力。结果表明: ①引起耕地斑块转出的因子是农牧投入-产出的增加, 水域斑块转出直接与渔业产值有关, 未利用地斑块转出与农业机械的使用和播种面积增加相关, 林地斑块转出的因子是农业产量和工业产值的变化, 城建斑块转出与农民收入低、城市化水平有关; 城镇用地斑块转入是工业产值增加的结果, 草地、林地斑块转入的因子是农业投入的增加, 耕地斑块转入与农民收入增加有关, 水域斑块转入直接因子是渔业产值增加。②结合驱动力类型分析, 耕地面积变化主要是最优经济福利及粮食安全驱动作用下的结果; 草地、林地被开垦, 耕地增加主要是生存型经济福利驱动的结果, 最优经济福利驱动有时也起到一定的作用; 城镇用地增加主要是最优经济福利驱动的结果; 在生态环境脆弱及其     

典型红壤丘陵区土地利用空间优化配置

选择具有红壤丘陵区典型特征的江西省泰和县千烟洲为研究区域,在分析当前土地利用结构并进行土地适宜性评价的基础上,依据2000年千烟洲试验站研究数据及农户调查资料,将GIS技术与线性规划模型有效地耦合起来,探讨实现典型红壤丘陵区各种具有特定数量、质量的农用土地资源在空间上最优配置的方法与技术。结果表明,优化方案从现状中牧业短缺的粮、果、林结构转化为较为完善的粮、果、牧、林结构,耕地资源利用结构也由重水轻旱、粮作为主、经作为辅的传统生产模式,转变为粮-经-饲并举的三元优化配置结构;同时,由果业和畜牧业共同支撑的优化方案的经济效益明显优于现状,在经济上更具稳定性和可持续性。     

东北地区植被分布全球气候变化区域响应

根据东北地区生态气候环境和生物地理规律对Holdridge生命地带分类系统进行修正,将东北地区植被分为寒温带湿润森林、寒温带潮湿森林、温带湿润森林、暖温带湿润森林、温带半湿润森林草甸草原、温带半湿润草甸草原、温带半干旱典型草原、暖温带半湿润草甸草原和暖温带半干旱典型草原等9 个生命地带并分析了其空间分布特征。运用大气环流模式分析东北地区由于温室气体增加导致的气候变化趋势。以此为基础评价东北地区植被分布的区域响应。全球气候变暖情景下,东北地区暖温带和温带范围明显扩大,而寒温带范围缩小甚至退出东北地区,植被分布界限显著北移;同时湿润区面积减少半湿润区和半干旱区扩大,导致森林面积缩小草原面积扩大。     

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.     

综合湿度和温度影响的中国未来热浪预估

地面空气湿度直接影响人体驱散热负荷的效率,持续高温高湿天气将会严重影响人体健康。基于综合考虑温度和湿度协同作用的热胁迫指数——湿球黑球温度(WBGT)指数定义热浪,利用参考时期(1986—2005年)中国824个气象站点逐日平均气温和逐日相对湿度资料以及CMIP5多模式相应模拟数据,论文定量描述了未来时期(2076—2095年)不同排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)中国大陆地区可能遭遇的热浪事件的空间分布特征及其变化。研究结果表明：① 最有效的减排情景(RCP2.6)和高排放情景(RCP8.5)下中国大陆地区的平均热浪日数分别是参考时期的3.4倍和6.6倍,平均热浪强度(一年内所有热浪事件中日平均WBGT指数的最大值)也相对升高了1.6 ℃和4.9 ℃,未来时期RCP8.5情景下中国东部和南部地区的最高年均热浪强度甚至将达到40 ℃;② 虽然青藏高原地区的热浪强度等级低,但是未来时期热浪日数的增加幅度较为显著;③ 华南、长江中下游以及少数西南地区是综合考虑气温和湿度协同作用对人体热舒适的影响下,未来时期可能发生热浪最严重的地区,如果不考虑湿度要素的影响,那么将极有可能低估热浪在中国华南和东部等湿度较高地区的强度和影响。     

分布式水文模型SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌河流域的适用性研究

为定量分析SWAT模型在新疆叶尔羌流域径流模拟的适用性,以叶尔羌河卡群水文站以上集水区域为研究流域,基于卡群水文站2000-2012年水文数据,运用SWAT模型模拟了研究流域的径流量,并设定2种气候变化情景模式,定量分析不同气候变化情景模式对叶尔羌流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明:SWAT模型在叶尔羌河流域具有较好的适用性,模拟的径流深相对误差小于8%,确定性系数均达到0.75以上;在降水不变化的前提下,气温升高2℃,流域径流量增加6.28%;在气温不变前提下,降水量增加5%,流域径流量增加9.50%。研究成果对于新疆叶尔羌河流域水文模拟及预测提供参考价值。     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究——一个基于生态地理区域的研究(英文)

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios

The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 ppmv in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.     

Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.