气候变化对新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响

考虑积雪和降水不均等特点,对流域进行分带处理,提出和建立了包含积雪融雪结构的水文评价模型。利用该模型求得未来不同气候变化情况下的月均流量过程,分析气候变化对玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响。结果表明:若气温升高2℃,降水减少20%,则夏季径流减少52.59%,冬季径流减少1.77%,年均径流减少46.87%。     

青藏高原多,少雪年后期西北干旱区降水的对比分析

利用１９５７－１９９０年高原地区的雪深,地面气温,地温以及西北干旱区部分站强降水量资料等,进行了高原地区多,少雪年积雪特下,地震热状况以及西北干旱区的期降水量的对比分析和相关分析。     

Detecting Arctic snow and ice cover with FY-1D global data

Chinese meteorological satellite FY-1D can obtain global data from four spectral channels which include visible channel(0.58-0.68 μm) and infrared channels(0.84-0.89 μm,10.3-11.3 μm,11.5-12.5 μm).2366 snow and ice samples,2024 cloud samples,1602 land samples and 1648 water samples were selected randomly from Arctic imageries.Land and water can be detected by spectral features.Snow-ice and cloud can be classified by textural features.The classifier is Bayes classifier.By synthesizing five d ays classifying result of Arctic snow and ice cover area,complete Arctic snow and ice cover area can be obtained.The result agrees with NOAA/NESDIS IMS products up to 70%.     

Climate variability,snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydrographs in small forested basins,western Cascades,Oregon

Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (<1 km²) basins with old‐growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation were tested for approximately 800 storms over a nearly 30‐year period. Analyses controlled for (1) snowpack presence/absence, (2) antecedent soil moisture, and (3) hillslope length and gradient. For small storms (<150 mm precipitation), controlling for precipitation, the presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil increased the threshold of precipitation before hydrograph rise, extended the start lag, centroid lag, and duration of storm hydrographs, and increased the peak discharge. The presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil sped up and steepened storm hydrographs in a basin with short steep slopes, but delayed storm hydrographs in basins with longer or more gentle slopes. Hydrographs of the largest events, which were extreme regional rain and rain‐on‐snow floods, were not sensitive to landform characteristics or snowpack presence/absence. Although the presence of a snowpack did not increase peak discharge in small, forested basins during large storms, it had contrasting effects on storm timing in small basins, potentially synchronizing small basin contributions to the larger basin hydrograph during large rain‐on‐snow events. By altering the relative timing of hydrographs, snowpack melting could produce extreme floods from precipitation events whose size is not extreme. Further work is needed to examine effects of canopy openings, snowpack, and climate warming on extreme rain‐on‐snow floods at the large basin scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow accumulation distribution inferred from time‐lapse photography and simple modelling

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow accumulation is complex and significantly influences the hydrological characteristics of mountain catchments. Many snow redistribution processes, such as avalanching, slushflow or wind drift, are controlled by topography, but their modelling remains challenging. In situ measurements of snow accumulation are laborious and generally have a coarse spatial or temporal resolution. In this respect, time‐lapse photography shows itself as a powerful tool for collecting information at relatively low cost and without the need for direct field access. In this paper, the snow accumulation distribution of an Alpine catchment is inferred by adjusting a simple snow accumulation model combined with a temperature index melt model to match the modelled melt‐out pattern evolution to the pattern monitored during an ablation season through terrestrial oblique photography. The comparison of the resulting end‐of‐winter snow water equivalent distribution with direct measurements shows that the achieved accuracy is comparable with that obtained with an inverse distance interpolation of the point measurements. On average over the ablation season, the observed melt‐out pattern can be reproduced correctly in 93% of the area visible from the fixed camera. The relations between inferred snow accumulation distribution and topographic variables indicate large scatter. However, a significant correlation with local slope is found and terrain curvature is detected as a factor limiting the maximal snow accumulation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

伴随对流层中低层气温持续下降的雪转雨过程分析

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）0.25°×0.25°分辨率细网格模式产品、探空观测资料和风廓线雷达等资料,对2014年2月18日浙江嘉兴雨雪天气过程中降水相态先由雨转雪、再由雪转雨的变化条件进行了分析,并对ECMWF细网格模式产品进行了预报性能检验,结果表明：模式形势预报准确,但未能预报出雪转雨过程。在对流层中低层气温持续降低的情况下,水汽凝结高度不同是造成两次相态转换的主要原因。上午垂直运动加强,水汽充沛,降水粒子的凝结高度高,足以形成大的雪花,在较低的零度层高度以下降落时不至于融化;下午垂直运动减弱,水汽集中在低层,尽管这一高度层的气温在-3～-2 ℃,但是不足以凝结成固态降水,同时地面气温受海上暖平流影响而回升,因此降水相态由雪转雨。     

Classification of precipitation types using fall velocity-diameter relationships from 2D-video distrometer measurements

Fall velocity-diameter relationships for four different snowflake types (dendrite, plate, needle, and graupel) were investigated in northeastern South Korea, and a new algorithm for classifying hydrometeors is proposed for distrometric measurements based on the new relationships. Falling ice crystals (approximately 40 000 particles) were measured with a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) during a winter experiment from 15 January to 9 April 2010. The fall velocity-diameter relationships were derived for the four types of snowflakes based on manual classification by experts using snow photos and 2DVD measurements: the coefficients (exponents) for different snowflake types were 0.82 (0.24) for dendrite, 0.74 (0.35) for plate, 1.03 (0.71) for needle, and 1.30 (0.94) for graupel, respectively. These new relationships established in the present study (PS) were compared with those from two previous studies. Hydrometeor types were classified with the derived fall velocity-diameter relationships, and the classification algorithm was evaluated using 3× 3 contingency tables for one rain-snow transition event and three snowfall events. The algorithm showed good performance for the transition event: the critical success indices (CSIs) were 0.89, 0.61 and 0.71 for snow, wet-snow and rain, respectively. For snow events, the algorithm performance for dendrite and plate (CSIs = 1.0 and 1.0, respectively) was better than for needle and graupel (CSIs = 0.67 and 0.50, respectively).     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

青藏高原积雪和季节冻融层的突变特征及其对中国降水的影响

利用青藏高原气象台站观测的积雪和冻土资料,建立了高原积雪和季节冻融层1965—2004年的变化序列,通过滑动T平均、M-K检验、动力学分割算法(BG算法)等方法检验出高原积雪没有发生明显的突变过程,而高原季节冻融层在1987年前后有一次明显的突变,冻结深度减少比较显著.当高原积雪偏少时,华南和西南降水偏多,而当高原冻结较厚时,全国的降水几乎都偏少.通过计算高原积雪和季节冻融层与全国夏季降水的单因子相关和复相关发现,积雪和季节性冻土对中国夏季降水都有一定的可预测性,但是如果共同考虑两个因子的影响,则能够提高夏季降水预测的准确率.考虑两个因子的共同影响,有3个明显的相关带,分别是北部沿大兴安岭经太行山北部到陕北最后到河西走廊,中部在长江中下游地区,南部则是沿武夷山经南岭到云贵高原中部.     

雪冰中NO_3~-浓度记录的研究进展

NO3-是雪冰中含量最高的含氮无机离子,雪冰中NO3-浓度记录的解读已成为研究全球变化的重要内容之一.近年来国内外已经就极地与中低纬高海拔地区雪冰中NO3-浓度记录开展了大量的研究,关于NO3-所指示的环境意义形成了一系列的认识.从雪冰中NO3-的可能性来源(包括太阳活动、陆源粉尘、闪电等自然源以及其他人类源)、时空变化特征以及气-雪-冰界面转化过程等方面综述了近年来该领域的研究成果,并结合全球变化的背景对其研究前景进行了展望.