川西盆地雾和能见度的气候特征及其对飞行的影响

利用川西盆地广汉机场气象台1986年1月~1995年12月共10 a地面观测资料,对广汉机场低能见度的生消时间、持续时间和能见度的年季节变化及其日变化做了统计分析,研究广汉机场全年能见度的飞行气候特征,特别是低能见度气候特征对飞行的影响。结果表明,能见度日变化特征表现为:白天早、晚时段能见度较低,午后能见度达到最高。能见度的季节变化特征表现为:冬(12,1,2月)、春季(3,4,5月)能见度较低,而夏(6,7,8月)、秋季(9,10,11月)能见度较高。冬季能见度的变化主要受辐射雾影响,夏季能见度的变化主要受降水的影响,随着降水强度的变化而变化,低能见度时间短暂。各标准低能见度逐时频率的日变化特征在各季基本相似,低能见度高频率区均出现在早晨到上午,低频率区均出现在下午。     

Issues concerning global warming today

The global weather of today is growing significantly warmer; this is an indisputable fact. However, the scientific community has not yet reached consensus on the causes of global warming and its possible consequences. This paper introduces the causes of global warming and summarizes its results, which both involve a series of huge and complex system issues. Our top priority is to pinpoint the main reason and the interrelated links between causative factors by adopting a macro-approach, or comprehensive comparison analysis. Its physical mechanism was then determined and its digital model established after quantitative study. __________ Translated from Green Leaf, 2007, (8): 34–35 [译自: 绿叶]     

大陆岩石圈对扩张机制的响应—辽蒙地质走廊中—新生代火山活动的时空分布

选择辽西为中心,以近东西向延伸800km的辽蒙地质走廊为研究区,通过年代学研究,确认130Ma以来的中、新生代火山活动对称分布的时空格局,具有“中间老、两侧新”的特点,而且随着时间的推移,软流圈来源的岩浆向东西两侧侧向流动,岩浆来源不断加深。在此基础上提出“软流圈底辟体上涌和水平侧向流动”的模式。     

辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价

利用辽宁省59个国家气象站2008—2017年6—8月逐时地面观测资料，综合考虑夏季气候舒适度和高影响天气对避暑旅游的不利影响，确定辽宁避暑旅游气候适宜度评价方法，分析了辽宁避暑旅游适宜度时空分布，为公众及旅游相关部门了解当地避暑旅游气候资源提供参考。研究表明：①辽宁避暑旅游适宜度由西北到东南逐渐增强， 59个地市（县）中，很适宜避暑的有14个，适宜避暑的有22个，较适宜避暑的有16个。②夏季辽宁大部避暑旅游气候舒适度较好，辽东和辽南气候舒适度优于辽宁中部和西部。辽宁东部的本溪和沿海的丹东、大连、葫芦岛和锦州南部气候舒适度等级最高，避暑气候条件更好。③辽宁夏季暴雨高风险区在东南部的宽甸、丹东和凤城一带。高温高风险区在朝阳大部和锦州西部。大风高风险区在铁岭北部、彰武、锦州、营口和长海。雷暴高风险区在铁岭、抚顺东部、朝阳西部和庄河一带。④6月、8月是辽宁适合避暑旅游的月份，尤其是 6月，避暑旅游适宜度最高，适宜面积最大。8月份次之， 7月避暑旅游适宜度较差。     

板块绝对运动及地幔热对流

本文以板块绝对运动AM1-2模型为边界条件探讨了不同的瑞利数下地幔热对流模型.结果表明,瑞利数小于10000（529.41）时,地幔对流呈现以板块驱动图式,运动的极型场和环型场由板块运动激发,两种场占有差不多相同的功率.当瑞利数增加到接近或略超过最低临界值时（约1.5倍）,对流呈现出复杂状态:1.板块运动速率小于下伏地幔对流速率;2.区域性的双层对流环出现;3.对流谱成分发生变化;4.环型场仅在地幔很浅的区域中起作用,而在地幔深部对流图式中影响很小.     

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.