Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.     

Kaleidoscoping Landscapes,Shifting Perspectives

Landscapes change in complex ways, creating surface patterns reminiscent of forms seen through a kaleidoscope. On the Earth's surface, those forms are linked to, and caused by, processes that originate with bedrock‐soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere interactions. Human‐caused alterations to landscapes are additionally tied to socioeconomic processes. Evaluation of landscape‐level processes can benefit from examining (1) the influence of disturbance regimes in altering landscape patterns, (2) the importance of considering surficial processes, (3) the subtle and cryptic spatial relations that may be present, (4) the reciprocal relationships among local processes and regional consequences, (5) the increased likelihood of some land cover transitions compared to others, and (6) the special case of landscapes with long histories of human use. These are all examples of potential fruitful arenas for interactions and represent a path for expansion of landscape ecology through accommodation of a broad range of content covered by the international GIScience community.     

The place of individuals in the politics of scale

Conceptualizations and re-conceptualizations of scale have been powerful tools for explaining spatial processes that transcend traditionally-bounded territories. Examining the role of individuals within a politics of scale can do even more to explain multi-scalar conflicts. This paper does so by examining struggles over airport expansion in the US, showing how an understanding of the various roles of individuals in the politics of scale – as sites of multiple scales, as actors constituting other scales, and as scales in and of themselves – better explains multi-scalar conflicts and offers more opportunities for resolving them.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.     

Diurnal Variations of Hydrochemistry in a Travertine-depositing Stream at Baishuitai, Yunnan, SW China

Diurnal variations of hydrochemistry were monitored at a spring and two pools in a travertine-depositing stream at Baishuitai, Yunnan, SW China. Water temperature, pH and specific conductivity were measured in intervals of 5 and 30 min for periods of 1 to 2 days. From these data the concentrations of Ca²⁺, HCO₃⁻, calcite saturation index, and CO₂ partial pressure were derived. The measurements in the spring of the stream did not show any diurnal variations in the chemical composition of the water. Diurnal variations, however, were observed in the water of the two travertine pools downstream. In one of them, a rise in temperature (thus more CO₂ degassing) during day time and consumption of CO₂ due to photosynthesis of submerged aquatic plants accelerated deposition of calcite, whereas in the other pool, where aquatic plants flourished and grew out of the water (so photosynthesis was taking place in the atmosphere), the authors suggest that temperature-dependent root respiration underwater took place, which dominated until noon. Consequently, due to the release of CO₂ by the root respiration into water, which dominated CO₂ production by degassing induced by temperature increase, the increased dissolution of calcite was observed. This is the first time anywhere at least in China that the effect of root respiration on diurnal hydrochemical variations has been observed. The finding has implications for sampling strategy within travertine-depositing streams and other similar environments with stagnant water bodies such as estuaries, lakes, reservoirs, pools and wetlands, where aquatic plants may flourish and grow out of water.     

RTK在大比例尺地形图航测数字化测图中的应用

结合某开发区1：2000地形图航测数字化测图工程，探讨了采用GPSRTK的自由基站二步法拟合方式测量航外像控点（平高点），实施大比例尺地形图野外检测的可行性。对比测量实验表明，该方式在像控点要求的特定位置不仅能保证平面精度，也可以保证高程精度；与常规的RTK相比，该方式具有基站设置位置灵活、不需单独提前解算基准转换参数，以及显著提高工效等优点。     

人工神经网络在天津市区地面沉降预测中的应用

在分析天津市区地面沉降特点的基础上，结合人工神经网络原理，选择1961-1980年的天津市区降水量、地下水开采量、前年沉降量、固结度作为训练样本的输入量，以这20年的地面沉降量作为输出量，用贝叶斯正则化算法训练BP网络，得到沉降的仿真模型。并把1981-1993年的资料用来进行预测检验，结果表明这是一种比较理想的地面沉降预测方法。最后在不同的降水量保证率下，预测了到2010年天津市区地面沉降的情况。     

水稻灌区节水灌溉的尺度效应

探讨了节水灌溉尺度问题,指出产生节水灌溉尺度现象的原因是由于灌溉过程中回归水的重复利用.结合漳河灌区的实际,讨论了水稻种植区在不同尺度下的水平衡要素及其在节水尺度效应中的作用;说明随尺度的增大,水平衡过程变得复杂化,节水尺度效应现象也更突出.利用漳河灌区田间试验数据和灌区长系列的历史资料,分别从田间、中等、灌溉干渠和灌区共四个尺度,定量地分析了水稻节水灌溉对水分生产率以及水分利用率的影响.结果表明,节水灌溉技术的采用不仅可以提高田间尺度的灌溉水分生产率,也促进了漳河灌区灌溉水分生产率的整体上升.     

华南前汛期不同降水时段的特征分析

利用1957-2001年华南地区74个测站逐日降水资料和同期NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析格点资料，对华南前汛期(4-6月)不同降水时段的特征进行了比较。分析发现，华南前汛期降水由锋面降水和夏季风降水两个时段组成。锋面降水时段主要集中在4月，为典型的由冬到夏过渡的环流形势，华南地区高空为平直的副热带西风急流，大气层结稳定，水汽来源主要是阿拉伯海的西风输送和西太平洋副高南侧东风的转向输送；南海夏季风爆发前，副高仍控制南海地区，华南地区水汽输送主要来源于阿拉伯海的西风输送和西太平洋副高南侧东风的转向输送及孟加拉湾的西南输送；南海夏季风爆发后，副高东撤退出南海地区，南半球越赤道水汽输送加强并与孟加拉湾水汽输送连通，华南区域内对流发展；夏季风降水时段盛期主要集中在6月，此时南亚高压跃上高原，华南地区处于南亚高压东部，对流发展极其旺盛，强大的南半球越赤道水汽输送越过孟加拉湾和南海地区向华南地区输送。