夏季怒江流域水汽输送多支特征及对降水影响

基于高空间分辨率0.25°的ERA-Interim再分析资料、TRMM 3B43 Version7数据、气象站点实测数据等多源数据,本文采用一种新的流域边界水汽通量概化和提取方法,揭示了夏季怒江流域水汽输送多支特征,并分析了其对降水时空分异的影响。研究表明,在高黎贡山南部、北部,伯舒拉岭北部及念青唐古拉山中部,有4支区域性水汽输送高值区,多年平均输送通量分别达102.6 kg/(m·s)、66.3 kg/(m·s)、39.7 kg/(m·s)和41.3 kg/(m·s)。多支水汽输送不仅深刻影响流域水汽输送格局,而且对降水时空分异也有不同程度影响。年际变化上,中下游横断山区水汽输送对降水的影响较小,上游青藏高原区影响较大,尤其以那曲—比如—索县一带影响最为显著。空间分布上,流域降水与水汽输送通量呈显著正相关,受多支水汽输送影响形成多个区域性多雨带。     

A quantitative assessment of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dating from a western North American 10Be data compilation

To better assess the spatiotemporal variations of the snow shielding effect on surface exposure dating, we compiled a dataset of 1341 ¹⁰Be ages from alpine moraines and glacially eroded valleys across western North America, and conducted a sensitivity test with both modern and time-integrated snow data covering the same region. Our analyses reveal significant differences in snow shielding both across our geographic domain and through time. In our time-integrated experiments we find snow-based exposure age corrections as low as 3.5% in the Great Basin region and high as 28.4% in the Pacific Northwest for samples dating to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when no wind-sweeping is assumed. As demonstrated with our time-varying snow conditions with a global climate model and a positive degree day model, modern snow conditions across western North America cannot account for the varying snow patterns under large scale climate shifts since the LGM. The snow-based exposure age corrections from the modern data differ from those calculated by our time-varying model by up to 17% across our model domain. In addition, we find that the ¹⁰Be ages calculated under two end-member scenarios regarding wind-sweeping effects, specifically whether boulders were shielded only when the total snow accumulation exceeded boulder heights or were always shielded when the snow was present, can differ by ∼7.6% on average for LGM aged samples. Our analyses provide a model-based estimates of the spatiotemporal variability and complexity of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dates across western North America and highlight the need to consider snow depth variations both spatially and temporally when conducting surface exposure dating in terrains where snowfall accumulation is significant.     

基于长时间序列ERA-Interim再分析资料的广东沿海波浪能资源分布特征分析

波浪能的开发利用作为海洋可再生能源发展的重要组成部分,持续受到社会和学界的广泛关注。广东省波浪能资源的开发利用具有得天独厚的优势,但其发展水平还处于探索阶段,亟须进一步加强。本文利用长达40年(1979—2018年)的ERA-Interim再分析波浪资料,从总体分布特征上分析了广东沿海波浪能资源及其长期变化趋势。粤东-珠江口-粤西沿岸一线,波浪能资源呈现"低-高-低-高-低"的分布特征,具有显著的季节变化特征;长期变化趋势上呈现显著的逐年线性递增特征,递增速率为0.054 3 kW/(m·a),其中1979—1994年变化较为快速,2001—2018年变化较为平缓。     

WRF-Hydro模型与新安江模型在陈河流域的应用对比

本文利用全球陆面数据同化系统与降雨观测数据,以陕西半湿润区陈河流域为研究对象,驱动WRF-Hydro模型,研究该模型的表现和适用性,并在结构、参数、输入输出和模拟结果方面与新安江模型对比.考虑到次表面层与实际包气带的区别,引入土层厚度乘子ZSOILFAC对前者进行等比缩放,发现其与新安江模型反推包气带的厚度有较好的一致性.研究表明:在陈河流域中WRF-Hydro计算步长须在建议值的基础上缩小; WRF-Hydro模型善于模拟洪水细节,新安江模型表现好且稳定;前者的径流深和洪峰合格率平于或略低于后者;在两个指标均合格的洪水中,前者平均均方根误差比后者小21.5%,但对于其他洪水,前者平均均方根误差比后者大56.2%; WRF-Hydro在洪水起涨时刻模拟较好,表现出其在中小流域应用的潜力.     

Analysis and comparison of heat flux of landfast ice during 2016 in the Prydz Bay,Antarctica

Long term in situ atmospheric observation of the landfast ice nearby Zhongshan Station in the Prydz Bay was performed from April to November 2016. The in situ observation, including the conventional meteorological elements and turbulent flux, enabled this study to evaluate the sea ice surface energy budget process. Using in situ observations, three different reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-analysis(ERA-Interim), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis2(NCEP R2), and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis(JRA55), and the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, output for surface fluxes were evaluated. The observed sensible heat flux(SH) and net longwave radiation showed seasonal variation with increasing temperature. Air temperature rose from the middle of October as the solar elevation angle increased.The ice surface lost more energy by outgoing longwave radiation as temperature increased, while the shortwave radiation showed obvious increases from the middle of October. The oceanic heat flux demonstrated seasonal variation and decreased with time, where the average values were 21 W/m~2 and 11 W/m~2, before and after August,respectively. The comparisons with in situ observations show that, SH and LE(latent heat flux) of JRA55 dataset had the smallest bias and mean absolute error(MAE), and those of NCEP R2 data show the largest differences.The ERA-Interim dataset had the highest spatial resolution, but performance was modest with bias and MAE between JRA55 and NCEP R2 compare with in situ observation. The CICE results(SH and LE) were consistent with the observed data but did not demonstrate the amplitude of inner seasonal variation. The comparison revealed better shortwave and longwave radiation stimulation based on the ERA-Interim forcing in CICE than the radiation of ERA-Interim. The average sea ice temperature decreased in June and July and increased after September,which was similar to the temperature measured by buoys, with a bias and MAE of 0.9°C and 1.0°C, respectively.     

An assessment of Arctic cloud water paths in atmospheric reanalyses

The role of Arctic clouds in the recent rapid Arctic warming has attracted much attention. However, Arctic cloud water paths(CWPs) from reanalysis datasets have not been well evaluated. This study evaluated the CWPs as well as LWPs(cloud liquid water paths) and IWPs(cloud ice water paths) from five reanalysis datasets(MERRA-2,MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and ERA5) against the COSP(Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observations Simulator Package) output for MODIS from the MERRA-2 CSP(COSP satellite simulator) collection(defined as M2 Modis in short). Averaged over 1980–2015 and over the Arctic region(north of 60°N), the mean CWPs of these five datasets range from 49.5 g/m~2(MERRA) to 82.7 g/m~2(ERA-Interim), much smaller than that from M2 Modis(140.0 g/m~2). However, the spatial distributions of CWPs, show similar patterns among these reanalyses, with relatively small values over Greenland and large values over the North Atlantic. Consistent with M2 Modis, these reanalyses show larger LWPs than IWPs, except for ERA-Interim. However, MERRA-2 and MERRA underestimate the ratio of IWPs to CWPs over the entire Arctic, while ERA-Interim and JRA-55 overestimate this ratio. ERA5 shows the best performance in terms of the ratio of IWPs to CWPs. All datasets exhibit larger CWPs and LWPs in summer than in winter. For M2 Modis, IWPs hold seasonal variation similar with LWPs over the land but opposite over the ocean. Following the Arctic warming, the trends in LWPs and IWPs during 1980～2015 show that LWPs increase and IWPs decrease across all datasets, although not statistically significant. Correlation analysis suggests that all datasets have similar interannual variability. The study further found that the inclusion of re-evaporation processes increases the humidity in the atmosphere over the land and that a more realistic liquid/ice phase can be obtained by independently treating the liquid and ice water contents.     

4种再分析气温资料在羌塘国家级自然保护区的适用性研究

利用1979 - 2018年羌塘国家级自然保护区边缘的3个气象站点狮泉河（西部）、 申扎（中部）和安多（东部）的观测气温（OT）, 与ERA-Interim（ET）、 NCEP/NCAR（NT1）、 NCEP/DOE（NT2）和JRA-55（JT）4种再分析气温资料, 从年际变化和年变化两方面采用多年气温变化趋势、 均方差、 相关性等参数方法在羌塘自然保护区进行了适用性研究。结果表明： 从多年平均气温年际变化来看, 4种再分析资料在狮泉河（西部）的适用性较差, JRA-55资料在安多（东部）和申扎（中部）的适用性较好, 且冬季再分析气温资料与观测气温的相关性好于夏季; 从多年平均气温年变化来看, 均表现为冬季（1月或12月）最低, 夏季（7月或8月）最高的“单峰型”变化。综合来看, JRA-55资料在羌塘自然保护区的适用性较好, ERA-Interim对多年气温趋势变化表现不准确, NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE与观测气温相比显著偏低。     

近30年全球干旱半干旱区的蒸散变化特征

全球变暖加剧了气候系统能量和水分循环相互作用的变化,水分平衡变化导致极端旱涝事件频发。地表蒸散是能量水分循环的重要过程,是理解气候变化的关键环节。本文基于1982~2011年FLUXNET-MTE观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了全球干旱半干旱区蒸散的时空变化特征及典型区域的变幅、趋势和季节变化。结果表明:（1）干旱半干旱区多年平均蒸散量小于300 mm。冬季蒸散量最小,夏季最大且变率也最强。1990年代前后,干旱半干旱区蒸散发生了明显的年代际转变,暖季的年代际差异尤为明显。（2）近30年来,东半球干旱半干旱区蒸散量呈增加趋势,西半球呈减小趋势。典型区域来看,南非呈显著增加趋势[25.14 mm（10 a）-1],美国西南部呈显著减小趋势[-19.86 mm（10 a）-1];萨赫勒、中国北部和澳大利亚呈增加趋势,阿根廷及智利南部呈减小趋势。（3）蒸散变化与温度、降水的变化联系密切,三者具有相似的年循环变化,但三者间相关性在干旱半干旱区具有显著的差异性。     

近30多年江淮流域极端气温指数的时空变化分析:站点观测和再分析的对比

利用1979—2011年江淮流域的区域站点、NCEP/DOE和ERA-Interim再分析资料中的逐日最高、最低气温资料集,对比分析了近33 a江淮流域极端气温指数的时空变化特征,对再分析资料的再现能力进行检验和评估。结果表明:(1)近33 a来大部分极端气温指数及其趋势系数的空间分布都表现出南北向梯度分布特征,而极端最高、最低气温的极值区分布在长江三角洲地区;(2)夏日指数、作物生产指数、极端最高、极端最低、暖期长度指数和高百分位指数在年际变化中均有上升趋势,而且多次出现异常低值和异常高值;近10多年来,极端气温频率指数和百分位指数的年际变化趋势有所减缓;(3)月最高气温在近30 a中不断被突破,最低气温不断上升,而且高温天气日数也在不断增加,但低温日数逐渐减少;(4)再分析资料能较合理地再现大部分极端指数的时空变化和线性趋势特征,ERA-Interim比NCEP/DOE具有更好的再现能力。     

江淮地区ERA-Interim再分析与观测温度资料对比分析

通过对比江淮地区1992-2016年08和20时的ERA-Interim再分析资料与观测资料的温度要素,发现它们在垂直方向上的偏差存在从低层到高层先减小后增大的特点,对流层低层各站偏差的空间差异明显,到中高层各站偏差趋于一致。偏差存在明显年际变化,500 hPa及以上等压面在2000年前后再分析资料比观测资料存在由偏低向偏高的转折;除地面外,其他高度上两种资料的平均绝对偏差均呈显著减小趋势。在偏差的月际分布上,地面和500 hPa以上高度再分析资料普遍比观测资料偏高,各高度上平均绝对偏差在8-9月最小。进一步对各天气现象下两种资料比较发现,雪、雨夹雪、冰粒子和冻雨天气发生时,地面至1000 hPa和850 hPa上再分析资料比观测资料偏高;大雾天气发生时,再分析资料比观测资料在1000 hPa偏高幅度明显高于地面。可见,在江淮地区使用ERA-Interim再分析温度资料判别降水相态时,大气边界层和850 hPa温度需慎重使用,近地层虚假逆温对大雾判别会产生很大影响。