Exploring nationally and regionally defined models for large area population mapping

Interactions between humans, diseases, and the environment take place across a range of temporal and spatial scales, making accurate, contemporary data on human population distributions critical for a variety of disciplines. Methods for disaggregating census data to finer-scale, gridded population density estimates continue to be refined as computational power increases and more detailed census, input, and validation datasets become available. However, the availability of spatially detailed census data still varies widely by country. In this study, we develop quantitative guidelines for choosing regionally-parameterized census count disaggregation models over country-specific models. We examine underlying methodological considerations for improving gridded population datasets for countries with coarser scale census data by investigating regional versus country-specific models used to estimate density surfaces for redistributing census counts. Consideration is given to the spatial resolution of input census data using examples from East Africa and Southeast Asia. Results suggest that for many countries more accurate population maps can be produced by using regionally-parameterized models where more spatially refined data exists than that which is available for the focal country. This study highlights the advancement of statistical toolsets and considerations for underlying data used in generating widely used gridded population data.     

Estimating the Great Lakes net radiation using satellite remote sensing and MERRA reanalysis

ABSTRACT

The net all-wave radiation of the Great Lakes (GL) is a key to understanding the effects of climate change on the GL. There is a high possibility of underestimating the net all-wave radiation of the GL when using existing methodologies with inputs from near-shore and land-based meteorological data. This study provides the first technique to estimate net all-wave radiation over the GL from July 2001 to December 2014 using a combination of data from satellite remote sensing, reanalysis data sets, and direct measurements. The components of the surface radiation budget estimated from the proposed method showed good statistical agreement. The instantaneous net radiation estimated by our methods was compared with the in situ measurements from June 2008 to April 2012 (Stannard Rock Lighthouse: SR) and September 2009–April 2011 (Spectacle Reef Lighthouse: SP). The comparisons from SR and SP also showed strong statistic agreement (R²?=?0.74 and 0.7; RMSE?=?9.26 and 10.60?W?m^?2 respectively). Monthly spatial variations of net shortwave radiation varied with cloud cover and surface albedo while net longwave radiation varied with the temperature difference between the water surface and the atmosphere.     

基于NCEP资料的我国大气可降水量的计算及其时空分布

利用1948—2009年的NCEP再分析资料获取多年平均大气可降水量,分析我国大气可降水量的空间分布和季节变化,并选用2001年的资料与同期探空资料进行对比验证.结果表明:我国大气可降水量的空间分布总趋势是低纬大于高纬,平原大于高原,沿海地区大于内陆地区;季节变化明显,冬季大气可降水量较小,夏季较大;NCEP资料与探空资料的计算结果基本一致.     

多套大气再分析资料的南亚高压强度变化特征及其与海表温度异常关系的比较分析

以往的研究中多采用NCE/NCAR再分析资料来讨论南亚高压的变化特征及其与海表温度的关系,鉴于其分析结果具有一定的片面性,本文采用ERA40、ERA—Interim、NCEWNCAR、NCEP—DOE和JRA．25五套再分析资料,以及应用全球、热带印度洋和热带大西洋1978--2008年逐月观测海表温度分别驱动NCARCAM5．1全球大气环流模式的数值模拟结果,比较了它们的夏季南亚高压强度变化特征及其与海表温度的关系。再分析资料问的比较结果表明,NCEWNCAR、NCEP—DOE两套再分析资料与ERA40、ERA—Interim、JRA-25三套再分析资料的南亚高压强度变化在20世纪70年代末至90年代初存在非常明显的差异,前两套再分析资料揭示的该时段南亚高压强度显著偏高,可能是不真实的,进而导致南亚高压强度与海表温度异常的关系与后三套再分析资料的结果差异明显。ERA40、ERA—Interim和JRA-25三套再分析资料和数值试验结果均表明,20世纪70年代末以后,夏季南亚高压强度异常与前期冬季、春季及同期夏季的热带印度洋海表温度异常关系持续密切,表明热带印度洋是影响夏季南亚高压强度变化的关键海区。当热带印度洋偏暖时,热带地区对流层温度增暖,南亚高压强度增强、面积增大、南扩、东伸西展,反之亦然。     

热带大气ISO在几种再分析资料中的对比分析

利用NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE和ERA40 3套再分析资料的逐日200 hPa纬向风数据,选取1961—1990年、1971—2000年和1981—2010年3种不同气候态,对比分析了3种气候态下热带大气季节内振荡 (ISO) 的基本气候特征及其在不同再分析资料中的异同。研究表明:1981—2010年气候态下,热带大气ISO冬春强、夏秋弱的年循环特征更加明显,东传短波能量增强,起始北传时间偏晚。NCEP/NCAR与NCEP/DOE资料所表征的热带大气ISO在空间分布、强度和能量传播方面的一致性较好。NCEP/NCAR资料反映的热带大气ISO强度在热带印度洋和热带西太平洋地区较ERA40资料偏弱,在赤道东太平洋地区较ERA40资料偏强;ERA40资料反映的热带大气ISO强度在12月—次年3月中旬较NCEP/NCAR资料偏强,而在3月中旬—11月偏弱;ERA40资料反映的热带大气ISO振荡位相较NCEP/NCAR资料超前10 d左右;NCEP/NCAR资料反映的东传谱能量弱于ERA40资料,西传能量强于ERA40资料;7月中旬,NCEP/NCAR资料反映的东亚地区大气ISO经向北传较ERA40资料偏晚。     

基于时序栅格的海洋异常事件提取方法

海洋异常事件（Marine Abnormal Event,MAE）可为区域海气相互作用和全球气候变化研究提供重要的时空特征参考,具有重要的科学意义。鉴此,本文基于长时间序列的栅格数据集,提出了一种海洋异常事件时空提取算法（Marine Abnormal Event Spatio-Temporal Extraction Method,MAESTEM）。MAESTEM的核心步骤包括事件的时间维度提取、事件的空间维度提取和事件追踪。在时间维度提取方面,将每一个栅格像元作为一维时间序列,计算其平均值和标准差作为判断每个时刻是否异常的标准,并根据异常持续发生的时间长短来提取时间维度的海洋异常事件（Temporal MAE,TMAE）。在空间维度提取方面,利用空间邻域统计方法,统计栅格像元的空间邻域中属于TMAE的个数,并通过空间维度异常判断规则获取空间维度的海洋异常事件（Spatial MAE,SMAE）。利用时刻状态的SMAE的空间拓扑关系,根据事件前后时刻覆盖的空间区域是否重叠以及事件持续的时间长短,实现异常事件的追踪。最后,通过提取太平洋海域1993年1月至2012年12月的月均海面高度异常（Sea Level Anomaly,SLA）事件,验证了该算法的有效性和实用性。     

面向环境数据集的Spatial OLAP系统集成

SOLAP是以空间数据仓库为基础,针对特定问题的联机空间数据访问和分析,实现SOLAP的前提是解决空间数据与非空间数据在空间数据仓库中的集成问题。首先,论文结合混合数据仓库架构模式,采用多层体系结构设计,提出和构建了一种面向环境数据集的空间OLAP系统的体系架构,包括"生产数据库—数据仓库层(基础业务库-主题数据库)-中间件层—BI综合分析层"等4个层次。接着,分析了环境数据集成和空间数据仓库建模过程,采用Oracle 11g来构建环境空间数据仓库,通过使用ODI工具的ETL功能实现环境属性数据集成。分析和构建了环境数据空间维度扩展的方法和模型,通过扩展行政区划维度表,使用Oracle Spatial sdo_geometry抽象几何数据类型存储环境空间数据,实现了空间数据和数据仓库数据的一体化存储。分析了SOLAP系统中OLAP和GIS的集成问题,采用OBIEE作为OLAP工具,Oracle Mapviewer作为GIS组件、GIS服务和OLAP服务在Web服务器中进行业务逻辑集成,对外提供统一的访问接口,实现OLAP和GIS的完全集成。最后,实现了一个环境数据集SO-LAP原型系统,验证了论文的框架和模型。     

新疆夏季降水时空分布的适用性评估

新疆气象站点稀疏且分布不均,高精度时空气象数据缺乏。基于数据同化的再分析资料,可成为解决这一问题的有效途径。利用美国国家环境预报中心再分析数据(CFSR)、欧洲中期数值预报中心再分析数据(ERA-Interim)和美国国家航空航天局再分析数据(MERRA)中的降水数据,分别与1979-2007年新疆气象观测数据和日本气象厅高分辨率亚洲陆地降水数据(APHRO)进行数理统计分析,评估了这3套再分析数据在新疆的适用性。3套再分析数据可有效表征新疆大部分地区年内降水的时空分布特征,夏季降水偏差小于100%;但未能捕捉到夏季降水的长期趋势。夏季降水的偏差与高程具有显著的相关性,这可为订正3套再分析数据、提高降水数据的精度提供技术支撑。     

Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China

Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960–1999, we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis, OMR). The results show that there is a stable and systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (⩾0.17 °C/decade), mainly comprised by sandy land, Gobi and bare rock gravel land, are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland, farmland and construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12°C/decade, 0.10°C/decade, 0.12°C/decade, respectively. Woodland areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06°C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover, the smaller the OMR warming trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type, areas in eastern China with intensive human activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus, projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not only take greenhouse gas increase into account, but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90202012, 40771206)     

The Evolution of a Meso-β-Scale Convective Vortex in the Dabie Mountain Area

The evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21-22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale convective vortex (MCV). The mesoscale reanalysis data generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) at a 3-km horizontal resolution and a 1-h time resolution during the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) were utilized. The results show that two processes played key roles in the enhancement of convective instability. First, the mesoscale low-level jet strengthened and shifted eastward, leading to the convergence of warm-wet airflow and increasing convective instability at middle and low levels. Second, the warm-wet airflow interacted with the cold airflow from the north, causing increased vertical vorticity in the vicinity of steeply sloping moist isentropic surfaces. The combined action of these two processes caused the MCS to shift progressively eastward. Condensation associated with the MCS released latent heat and formed a layer of large diabatic heating in the middle troposphere, increasing the potential vorticity below this layer. This increase in potential vorticity created favorable conditions for the development of a low-level vortex circulation. The vertical motion associated with this low-level vortex further promoted the development of convection, creating a positive feedback between the deep convection and the low-level vortex circulation. This feedback mechanism not only promoted the maturation of the MCS, but also played the primary role in the evolution of the MCV. The MCV formed and developed due to the enhancement of the positive feedback that accompanied the coming together of the center of the vortex and the center of the convection. The positive feedback peaked and the MCV matured when these two centers converged. The positive feedback weakened and the MCV began to decay as the two centers separated and diverged.