Drivers of ecosystem and climate change in tropical West Africa over the past ∼540 000 years

A paucity of empirical non‐marine data means that uncertainty surrounds the impact of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in tropical regions beyond the last glacial period. The sedimentary fill of the Bosumtwi impact crater (Ghana) provides the longest continuous Quaternary terrestrial archive of environmental change in West Africa, spanning the last ～1.08 million years. Here we explore the drivers of change in ecosystem and climate in tropical West Africa for the past ～540 000 years using pollen analysis and the nitrogen isotope composition of bulk organic matter preserved in sediments from Lake Bosumtwi. Variations in grass pollen abundance (0?99%) indicate transitions between grassland and forest. Coeval variations in the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter indicate that intervals of grassland expansion coincided with minimum lake levels and low regional moisture availability. The observed changes responded to orbitally paced global climate variations on both glacial–interglacial and shorter timescales. Importantly, the magnitude of ecosystem change revealed by our data exceeds that previously determined from marine records, demonstrating for the first time the high sensitivity of tropical lowland ecosystems to Quaternary climate change.

     

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean.     

华南暖区暴雨研究进展

华南前汛期暴雨预报一直是我国大气科学界的一个研究热点,特别是发生在锋前的暖区暴雨,由于其天气尺度斜压性强迫不明显,环境大气水汽含量丰富,热动力不稳定性强,边界层触发机制复杂,以及特殊的地形和海陆热力差异的外强迫作用,导致暴雨突发性强,地域性特征显著,也是困扰预报业务人员的难点问题。目前我国预报业务中使用的全球数值预报模式对暖区暴雨的预报能力十分有限,高分辨率中尺度数值模式的预报效果也不尽人意。该文回顾了近40年华南前汛期暴雨大部分研究成果,针对华南暖区暴雨的提出及典型背景场、暖区暴雨与低空急流的关系、暖区中尺度对流系统的形成及传播、暖区暴雨触发机制等独特的天气动力学特征进行了系统梳理与分析,并依据前人研究成果及中央气象台预报实践经验,总结提炼了3类华南暖区暴雨类型——边界层辐合线型、偏南风风速辐合型,以及强西南急流型的天气系统配置及触发因子。最后提出针对华南暖区暴雨需要进一步研究的科学问题。     

冰雹云降水过程中微波亮温的变化特征

通过冰雹云模式模拟的一次冰雹云降水过程中降水粒子廓线和微波辐射传输模式结合,分析了冰雹云发展的不同阶段的微物理含量垂直结构变化及其对微波亮温的影响,得到以下几点结论:1)如果微波通道受到降水粒子散射和辐射的共同作用,如降水云早期的85 GHz亮温,成熟期的19 GHz亮温及消散期的37 GHz亮温,由于辐射和散射信息互相抵消,致使亮温随雨强的变化较复杂,这些通道亮温和雨强的相关性明显降低,不宜被用来反演地面雨强。2)根据19 GHz亮温随地面雨强或冰相粒子柱含量的改变,可以大致确定降雨云的不同阶段:在发展阶段,主要是降雨层以上的冰相粒子,尤其霰粒影响19 GHz亮温,致使其亮温与冰相粒子柱含量具有较好的负相关,而与地面雨强相关性较差;在成熟阶段,主要受雨水上层逐渐增加的辐射和冰相粒子散射共同作用,使得19GHz亮温与地面雨强和冰相粒子柱含量的相关性都不太好;在消散阶段,19 GHz亮温主要受较强的雨水辐射影响,与地面雨强和冰相粒子柱含量均有着较高的正相关。3)37 GHz是相对比较稳定的通道,其亮温与地面雨强有较好的线性关系,尤其与冰相粒子柱含量相关性更好,因此是反演地面雨强和冰相粒子柱含量的最佳通道。85 GHz亮温对降雨云体的中高层结构较为敏感,使得其亮温随地面雨强增加而降低的变化比较离散,不如37 GHz的集中。     

The Neogene and Quaternary of England: landscape evolution,tectonics, climate change and their expression in the geological record

During the Neogene and Quaternary, tectonic and climatic processes have had a profound impact upon landscape evolution in England and, perhaps as far back as 0.9 Ma, patterns of early human occupation. Until the Late Miocene, large-scale plate tectonic processes were the principal drivers of landscape evolution causing localised basin inversion and widespread exhumation. This drove, in places, the erosion of several kilometres of Mesozoic cover rocks and the development of a regional unconformity across England and the North Sea Basin. By the Pliocene, the relative influence of tectonics on landscape evolution waned as the background tectonic stress regime evolved and climatic influences became more prominent. Global-scale climate-forcing increased step-wise during the Plio-Pleistocene amplifying erosional and depositional processes that operated within the landscape. These processes caused differential unloading (uplift) and loading (subsidence) of the crust (‘denudational isostasy’) in areas undergoing net erosion (upland areas and slopes) and deposition (basins). Denudational isostasy amplified during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (c.0.9 Ma) as landscapes become progressively synchronised to large-scale 100 ka ‘eccentricity’ climate forcing. Over the past 0.5 Ma, this has led to the establishment of a robust climate record of individual glacial/interglacial cycles enabling comparison to other regional and global records. During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition and early Holocene (c.16–7 ka), evidence for more abrupt (millennial/centennial) scale climatic events has been discovered. This indicates that superimposed upon the longer-term pattern of landscape evolution is a more dynamic response of the landscape to local and regional drivers.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。     

三组火山强迫资料差异及其对模式模拟结果的影响

Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。     

Coral assemblages and reef growth in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (Western Pacific Ocean)

Reef development varies considerably around the high, raised‐limestone islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Here we examine the modern assemblages at 30 sites for coral composition, colony density, colony size, and fidelity. We defined four reef types and hypothesize the presence of environmentally driven ecological stasis, whereby the environment continuously selects for coral species membership, defines colony sizes, and over time creates the noted reef types. Our results show that constructional spur‐and‐groove reefs supported significantly larger coral‐colony sizes and higher coral species richness compared with high‐relief interstitial framework, low‐relief incipient, and non‐constructional coral assemblages. Non‐constructional reefs supported much smaller coral colony sizes, despite similar population densities, and were consistently found in association with high wave exposure. The distinct coral assemblages found on interstitial framework and low‐relief incipient reefs were not affiliated with any wave exposure regime, but were located adjacent to large watersheds and on islands with unique geological history. These assemblages were nested within the spur‐and‐groove species pool. Overall, modern coral cover was well predicted by bathymetric slope and watershed size, while species richness was additively influenced by two proxies of pollution, suggesting the latter is better suited for establishing management targets. In contrast with previous studies that suggested modern assemblages were biologically controlled in the CNMI, we show reef assemblages and reef development are highly influenced by long‐term environmental forcing.     

Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past,present and future climates

This paper provides an incisive review of paleoclimate science and its relevance to natural-resource management within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The drought of 1997–2010 focussed scientific, public and media attention on intrinsic climate variability and the confounding effect of human activity, especially in terms of water-resource management. Many policy and research reviews make statements about future planning with little consideration of climate change and without useful actionable knowledge. In order to understand future climate changes, modellers need, and demand, better paleoclimate data to constrain their model projections. Here, we present an insight into a number of existing long-term paleoclimate studies relevant to the MDB. Past records of climate, in response to orbital forcing (glacial–interglacial cycles) are found within, and immediately outside, the MDB. High-resolution temperature records, spanning the last 10⁵ years, exist from floodplains and cave speleothems, as well as evidence from lakes and their associated lunettes. More recently, historical climate records show major changes in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles and decadal shifts in rainfall regimes. A considerable body of research currently exists on the past climates of southeastern Australia but, this has not been collated and validated over large spatial scales. It is clear that a number of knowledge gaps still exist, and there is a pressing need for the establishment of new paleoclimatic research within the MDB catchment and within adjacent, sensitive catchments if past climate science is to fulfil its potential to provide policy-relevant information to natural-resource management into the future.     

Can Eddy Forcing be Responsible for the Spatial Structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode?

In order to study the origin of the spatial structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM),a linear stochastic model is constructed empirically from the output of a GCM run.Optimal stochastic forcing in terms of the maximum variance contribution,which may be potentially related to the maintenance of the NAM,is investigated.Theoretical analysis on the dominant non-modal response to the stochastic forcing shows that this dominance is jointly decided by the properties of forcing and the non-modal grow...