Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Surface renewal analysis for sensible and latent heat flux density

High frequency temperature measurements were recorded at five heights and surface renewal (SR) analysis was used to estimate sensible heat flux density (H) over 0.1 m tall grass. Traces of the temperature data showed ramp-like structures, and the mean amplitude and duration of these ramps were used to calculate H using structure functions. Data were compared with H values measured with a sonic anemometer. Latent heat flux density (E) was calculated using an energy balance and the results were compared with E computed from the sonic anemometer data. SR analysis provided good estimates of H for data recorded at all heights but the canopy top and at the highest measurement level, which was above the fully adjusted boundary layer.     

Densities of Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay waters

The densities of 36 water samples from the Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay were determinedby a magnetic float densimcter under three temperatures from 15℃ to 25℃.All the measured densities ofsamples were greater than that of the values calculated from the International Equation of State of Seawater.The differences between the measured and calculated densities increased with the decrease of salinities.The dif-ferences appeared exponentially correlated with[Ca~(2+)]/s,[Mg~(2+)]/s and[SO_4~(2-)]/s,and had"s"type curverelationship with the alkalinity in all salinity range.But in the salinity ranging from 25.72 to 31.57,therelationships were all linear.The density difference can be estimated from the equation △ρ（10~3kg·m~(-3)）=（-2.79+236.5([Ca~(2+)]/s)/(-9.7464×10~（-3）+[Ca~(2+)]/s).It was the high alkalinity and[Ca~(2+)]/s that resulted in the measured densi-ties of seawaters being higher than the calculated densities in the Huanghe estuary and Bohai Bay.     

勘查油气田化探新方法——土壤相态烃测量法

烃气测量是油气化探最主要的方法。目前应用的烃气测量方法有两类:一类是测量土壤中游离烃气如K—V指纹法、吸附丝法、物上气法及直接取土壤气测量法等。此类方法由于需特殊设备及壤气测量方法本身固有的缺陷,目前还未得到普遍应用,另一类为土壤吸附烃气法即国内外目前普遍使用的酸解烃气法、此法在多数油气田上取得好效果,但也有相当多的地区如黄土、荒漠及水网发育等特殊景观区效果不好或不显著。本文介绍一种新的烃气测量法──土壤相态烃测量法。这是用一种特殊的技术,只选择性提取由油气藏渗漏过程中保存在运移通道围岩及近地表土壤各种次生矿物结构中以"穴居"态存在的轻烃组分。"穴居"态烃为累积性的指标,不受外界温度、修水等的影响,保存较牢固,测定结果稳定。相态烃法避免了酸解烃法存在的生物成因烃、矿物同生烃及碳酸盐的干扰影响,提高了测量指标的信噪比,突出了应有的异常。本方法已在黄土厚覆盖区两个已知油气田和一个风成沙覆盖的断裂发育油田上试验获得成功,结果表明相态烃法优于酸解烃法。     

The deposit size frequency method for estimating undiscovered uranium deposits

The deposit size frequency (DSF) method has been developed as a generalization of the method that was used in the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program to estimate the uranium endowment of the United States. The DSF method overcomes difficulties encountered during the NURE program when geologists were asked to provide subjective estimates of (1) the endowed fraction of an area judged favorable (factorF) for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits and (2) the tons of endowed rock per unit area (factorT) within the endowed fraction of the favorable area. Because the magnitudes of factorsF andT were unfamiliar to nearly all of the geologists, most geologists responded by estimating the number of undiscovered deposits likely to occur within the favorable area and the average size of these deposits. The DSF method combines factorsF andT into a single factor (F·T) that represents the tons of endowed rock per unit area of the undiscovered deposits within the favorable area. FactorF·T, provided by the geologist, is the estimated number of undiscovered deposits per unit area in each of a number of specified deposit-size classes. The number of deposit-size classes and the size interval of each class are based on the data collected from the deposits in known (control) areas. The DSF method affords greater latitude in making subjective estimates than the NURE method and emphasizes more of the everyday experience of exploration geologists. Using the DSF method, new assessments have been made for the young, organic-rich surficial uranium deposits in Washington and idaho and for the solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region in Arizona and adjacent Utah.     

Fluctuation in the zooplankton community in two solar salt ponds,Aveiro, Portugal

The zooplankton of two salt ponds at Aveiro was studied to evaluate its density and diversity. Samples were collected biweekly from the salt ponds Esmolas and Tanoeiras. Samples were first separated into Holoplankton (Copepoda, nauplii,Acartia, Ostracoda and Anostraca) and Meroplankton (Mollusca, Insecta, annelidan larvae and Ichthyoplankton). The Holoplankton was mainly composed of:Acartia tonsa, Acartia sp.,Eurytemora velox, Artemia sp., and harpacticoids and calanoids. In both salt ponds, species diversity was identical, but total zooplankton density was higher in the Tanoeiras salt pond, probably because its physical and chemical characteristics allowed the development of stable communities.     

位场自动反演技术的研究现状及意义

本文首先叙述了重、磁异常自动反演技术的特点。与传统的定性分析重、磁场分布特征的方法不同,重、磁异常自动反演方法通过反演得到地下场源分布,即地下密度或磁性的分布特征。由于密度体或磁性体与地质体的关系更为直接,因此这种新一代重、磁解释成果及图件将成为人们从新的角度来认识地质构造的基础材料。文中不但阐述了该方法的研究现状,同时也说明了存在的问题。     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Mongolian gerbils and Daurian pikas responded differently to changes in precipitation in the Inner Mongolian grasslands

Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) and Daurian pikas (Ochotona dauurica) are two key small mammal species in the Inner Mongolian grasslands, China. Mongolian gerbils displayed density-dependent population growth, but the time lag of density dependence was short and within season. The spring–autumn population growth rate was inversely related to population density in Mongolian gerbils of the Erdos desert grasslands. The autumn–spring population growth rate of Mongolian gerbils was inversely related to winter precipitation. Precipitation had stronger effects on the population growth of gerbils during the non-breeding season. The monthly population growth rate of Daurian pikas was positively related to the monthly precipitation and was inversely related to population density in central Inner Mongolia. Daurian pikas select habitats with tall plants. Increased precipitation enhances plant production and increases the height of plants in arid and semi-arid regions. This enhancement of plant height might increase the population growth of Daurian pikas. Mongolian gerbils live in short grasslands. Increased winter precipitation might result in higher winter mortality of Mongolia gerbils, or taller plants might supress gerbil population growth in wet years. Therefore, responses of small mammal species to changes in precipitation depend on the life history of small mammals and changes in vegetation induced by climatic changes.     

Retrieval of stratospheric O3 and NO2 vertical profiles using zenith scattered light observations

Daily zenith scattered light intensity observations were carried out in the morning twilight hours using home-made UV-visible spectrometer over the tropical station Pune (18‡31′, 73‡51′) for the years 2000–2003. These observations are obtained in the spectral range 462–498 nm for the solar zenith angles (SZAs) varying from 87‡ to 91.5‡. An algorithm has been developed to retrieve vertical profiles of ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) from ground-based measurements using the Chahine iteration method. This retrieval method has been checked using measured and recalculated slant column densities (SCDs) and they are found to be well matching. O₃ and NO₂ vertical profiles have been retrieved using a set of their air mass factors (AMFs) and SCDs measured over a range of 87–91.5‡ SZA during the morning. The vertical profiles obtained by this method are compared with Umkehr profiles and ozonesondes and they are found to be in good agreement. The bulk of the column density is found near layer 20–25 km. Daily total column densities (TCDs) of O₃ and NO₂ along with their stratospheric and tropospheric counterparts are derived using their vertical profiles for the period 2000–2003. The total column, stratospheric column and tropospheric column amounts of both trace gases are found to be maximum in summer and minimum in the winter season. Increasing trend is found in column density of NO₂ in stratospheric, tropospheric and surface layers, but no trend is observed in O₃ columns for above layers during the period 2000–2003