Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江倒灌鄱阳湖原因及发生条件的量化指标

江湖倒灌对鄱阳湖流域水动力变化和流域水环境保护等方面有重要影响,正确认识江湖倒灌原因和倒灌发生条件对明晰江湖倒灌作用机理、研究倒灌强度和倒灌影响范围等方面具有重要意义。在剖析江湖倒灌原因的基础上,从非恒定流洪水波传播的角度出发,结合鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时江湖倒灌的特点,提出了长江作用强度指标和鄱阳湖作用强度指标,在此基础上引入江湖作用综合强度函数,依据实测资料,分析研究了江湖作用综合强度函数的关系表达式、江湖倒灌发生条件及量化指标。经验证,所提出的江水倒灌量化指标可区分江湖顶托和江湖倒灌现象,可实现对鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时的江湖倒灌预测,且提高了预测江湖倒灌起止时间、总历时和年内发生次数的准确率,成果可用于江湖关系研究和鄱阳湖流域水资源综合利用工程实践中。     

肇东和亳县陨石中的黑包体及其成因意义

肇东、毫县陨石中的黑包体在总体成分、形状、大小上与陨石球粒相似,但两者的内部结构以及矿物组合不同。黑包体中矿物呈密堆状,主要由细粒橄榄石以及其它硅酸盐微晶组成,不含火成玻璃等特点表明黑包体未经历过熔融,它们可能是形成球粒的毛坯。因此认为球粒的形成有三个阶段:星云凝聚形成尘粒—尘粒吸积形成黑包体—黑包体熔融形成球粒。     

迁安紫苏花岗岩的~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年龄谱

对采自河北省迁安县水厂地区的紫苏花岗岩中的黑云母和紫苏辉石进行了~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年龄测定,分别给出了18.7亿年和19.6亿年的~(40)Ar保存年龄。这两种矿物的年龄谱的视年龄的梯度变化表明,紫苏花岗岩形成后是缓慢冷却的。3.9亿年左右的一次热事件,造成了放射成因~(40)Ar的丢失。根据热历史和封闭温度的研究,从27亿年(侵入到该区紫花岗岩中的花岗闪长岩的锆石U-Pb年龄)到19.6亿年,紫苏花岗岩岩体的抬升速率为6.5m/Ma,但从19.6亿年到18.7亿年,其抬升速率高达111m/Ma,具有明显的构造抬升作用。     

Li_2O-(Mg、Zn、Ni)O-V_2O_5三元体系的相平衡

对Li_2O-(Mg、Zn、Ni)O-V_2O_5三元体系在500—800℃相图的研究表明,在每个系统内部都出现了一个依端员组分摩尔比为1:2:1的化合物。即橄榄石型的LiMgVO_4,硅铍石型的LiZnVO_4和尖晶石型的LiNiVO_4。不同的是,Li_2O-MgO-V_2O_5中发现了第二个三元相和一个固溶体。LiO_2-NiO-V_2O_6中得出一个固溶体,而LiZnNO_4中未得固溶体。     

关于我国1957年旧重力基本网的精度与系统转换

简述了原国家重力基本网(57网)的历史和技术要点,详细地分析了57网的各类误差和产生原因,提出了新、旧系统转换的方法。本文研究表明,57网基本点相对观测的实际精度约为±0.06mgal,仪器平均值误差为1.6×10~(-4)。基本点重力值含-13.56mgal的基准误差和1.9×10~(-4)的尺度差,并含有±0.1～0.2mgal的非线性系统误差。对基本点实行新、旧系统转换误差为±0.05mgal,基本不损失其观测精度。     

AbnormalSq behaviour

It is well-known that the amplitude and phase of theSq(H) variation show considerable variability from day to day. In this paper we consider one aspect of the phase variability—that associated with AQDs. AQDs (or abnormal quiet days) are defined as magnetically quiet days where the maximum excursion ofH at a mid-latitude station on the poleward side of the focus occurs outside the normal time range 0830–1330 LST. Such days exhibit properties, many of which appear quite distinct from the properties of the normalSq(H) variation. The properties of AQDs, and the proposals that have been made to explain them, are considered in detail. The consequences of these proposals and some problems which need to be addressed in order to obtain a fuller understanding of the dynamics of the ionosphere on AQDs are also discussed.     

中条山地区早前寒武纪岩石 含铀矿化岩石稀土元素与铀的关系及其意义

本文研究了中条山地区基底涑水杂岩,含矿层中条群岩石和铀矿化岩石的稀土元素特征及其与铀元素的关系。发现稀土元素,尤其是重稀土元素对铀的区域富集及铀矿化作用有一定的指示意义。     

用王水分解含金矿物的机理探讨

本文从理论上对王水分解含金矿物的机理进行了探讨。在非标准状态下,温度、压力不变,改变体系中物质的浓度、酸度条件,用能斯特公式求解体系中HNO_3和Au的电极电位值,而后用EMF(电池电动势)根据规则判断反应是否可以进行。经理论计算,结论是可行的。另外由于Au~(3 )和Cl~-大量存在时,生成稳定的[AuCl_4]~-,经过络合作用,促使了HNO_3和Au的氧化还原反应,最终使含金矿物溶解完全。作者认为王水同含金矿物反应的机理是:氧化和络合的双重作用。     

方差分量估计理论及其在边角网平差中的应用

本文从理论上阐明了MINQE(I,U)(最小范数二次不变无偏估计)方差分量估计出现负方差的原因;论述了存在MINQE(U,NND)估计量的充要条件;对边角网平羞问题而言,MINQE(I,U)估计法不可能同时准确地求出边长误差模型中的m_a~2和m_b~2。文章从边角网误差模型的特点出发,提出了一种新的方差分量估计模型(改进的方差分量估计模型),该模型能合理地确定方向和边长的方差分量,从而较好地解决了边角网平差中的定权问题。