中小地形对局地天气气候的影响

本文采用地形活动坐标系,研究在二维运动条件下地形对局地天气气候的影响。指出:地形对气流的影响不仅与地形高度z有关,而且与地形的坡度α,下垫面的热力分布,近地层大气稳定度г,垂直交换系数k以及基流v等诸因素密切相关。其中下垫面温差,地形坡度和基流尤为重要。     

半Lagrange法在数值预报中的应用和近年来的发展(Ⅰ)

本文就五十年代以来半Lagrange法在数值预报中的应用和近年来的发展进行评述,介绍我国在这方面的工作。还就此法和Euler法的优缺点作了比较;指出了存在的问题。     

地形作用下有限振幅Rossby波的稳定性分析

本文用微分方程定性理论方法分析了地形对有限振幅Rossby波的稳定性影响。结果表明:地形北坡有利于波动出现不稳定,南坡使波动稳定;西坡使导式波动不稳定但使曳式波动稳定,东坡使导式波动稳定但使曳式波动不稳定。     

The mesoscale convection life cycle: Building block or prototype for large-scale tropical waves?

A cumulonimbus cloud may ascend and spawn its anvil cloud, precipitation, and downdrafts within an hour or so. This paper inquires why a similar progression of events (life cycle) is observed for tropical weather fluctuations with time scales of hours, days, and even weeks. Regressions using point data illustrate the characteristic unit of rain production: the mesoscale convective system (MCS), covering tens of kilometers and lasting several hours, with embedded convective rain cells. Meanwhile, averages over larger spatial areas indicate a self-similar progression from shallow to deep convection to stratiform anvils on many time scales.Synthetic data exercises indicate that simple superpositions of fixed-structure MCS life cycles (the Building Block hypothesis) cannot explain why longer period life cycles are similar. Rather, it appears that an MCS may be a small analogue or prototype of larger scale waves. Multiscale structure is hypothesized to occur via a Stretched Building Block conceptual model, in which the widths (durations) of zones of shallow, deep, and stratiform anvil clouds in MCSs are modulated by larger scale waves.Temperature (T) and humidity (q) data are examined and fed into an entraining plume model, in an attempt to elucidate their relative roles in these large-scale convection zone variations. T profile variations, with wavelengths shorter than troposphere depth, appear important for high-frequency ( 2–5-day period) convectively coupled waves, as density directly links convection (via buoyancy) and large-scale wave dynamics (via restoring force). Still, the associated q anomalies are several times greater than adiabatic, suggesting a strong amplification by shallow convective feedbacks. For lower frequency (intraseasonal) variability, q anomalies are considerably larger compared to T, and may be dominant.     

利用选权拟合法进行GPS水汽层析解算

附加约束条件的层析解算方法是克服GPS水汽层析观测方程不适定性的主要方法,为了避免该方法中水平约束方程权阵的选取不当对水汽层析结果产生的不良影响,将选权拟合法应用到对流层水汽参数反演中。首先利用水汽参数在空间的分布规律构建参数权矩阵,并利用L曲线法确定正则化参数,然后利用模拟实验对该方法在水汽层析解算中的应用进行了验证。结果表明,该方法可以有效地克服观测方程的不适定性,反演得到符合客观实际的结果。     

GPS对流层延迟模型的比较分析

基于GPS对流层模型,对几种模型进行实际应用的对比,通过GAMIT软件对CORS数据进行处理,分析得出了几种模型在GPS反演大气水汽含量应用中的精度。     

Observed Impact of the South Asian Summer Monsoon on the Local Meteorology in the Himalayas

The South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) is the most important climate system in Asia.Using observational data from the HEST2006(Himalayan Exchange between the Surface and Troposphere 2006) campaign and large-scale grid data,this paper analyzed the SASM impact on local meteorological parameters including radiation,temperature,humidity,and wind in the Himalayas.The SASM experienced one active and one break period during the HEST2006 campaign.The local meteorological parameters exhibit great differences between the active period and the break period of the SASM.The radiation fluxes are greater in the break period than in the active period.The air temperature and specific humidity are lower,but soil temperature and wind speed are higher in the break period than in the active period.Further analysis indicates that the SASM greatly affects the meteorological features of the Himalayan region.     

GPS水汽处理的设计与实现

介绍地基GPS气象学的基本原理,并利用VB编程语言编程实现GPS水汽计算和结果的图形化显示。同时对某地2008年5月份的根据三种静力学延迟模型反演的气象数据和降水数据进行分析,探索模型的适用情况。     

北京地区细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报模式及流行风险水平评估

研究了北京市海淀区2004～2006年全年逐日细菌性痢疾发病率与地面气象要素的相关关系.结果发现,细菌性痢疾发病与水汽压(空气绝对湿度)高度相关,单相关系数平均可达0.85以上.在所有候选预报因子中,它的方差贡献可占80%.采用多元回归概率分级技术,建立了细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报及风险水平评估模式.该模式预报结果可为各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据.     

SVM方法在武汉区域夏季暴雨预报业务中的应用

以2003～2006年ECMWF数值预报产品、Japan和T213降水预报场资料为基础,应用支持向量机（SVM）方法和CMSVM应用软件平台,通过对训练样本进行交叉验证和模型核参数的逐渐逼近,分区建立了武汉区域16,个区SVM24h暴雨预报模型,并在武汉区域5～7月进行实时业务应用。通过预报结果检验,5～7月武汉区域暴雨预报TS评分为33．59％,其中湖北省平均成绩为34．69％、湖南省平均成绩为34．15％、河南省平均成绩为31．71％。检验结果较好,表明SVM方法在区域性暴雨预报中具有一定的预报能力和参考价值。