1321号台风“蝴蝶”强度变化特征和影响因素分析

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料（空间分辨率1°×1°）、台风实况资料及海南省气象台站观测资料,选取1321号台风＂蝴蝶＂为研究个例,从天气学原理高低空形势及动力、热力学物理量等多角度分析了＂蝴蝶＂强度演变特征及影响因素.研究结果表明,副热带高压与高空西风槽是影响此次台风的主要大尺度天气系统,弱冷空气南侵、南海海温偏高及越赤道气流强盛是＂蝴蝶＂迅速加强的重要原因.西风槽引导弱冷空气南侵使得台风外围环流气压梯度增加,斜压不稳定状态加剧;南海海温达到29℃,海温偏高使台风区域大气层结降低,深热对流发展;105°E越赤道气流强盛为台风提供了充沛水汽和能量.三者共同作用促使台风强度突然增强.另外,低层涡度、高层散度、湿位涡及水汽通量等物理量能够较好地表征＂蝴蝶＂强度变化特征.低层辐合流入、高层辐散流出为台风的加强提供了动力条件;湿位涡下负上正表明大气热力层结不稳定;水汽通量增加表明水汽条件充足.良好的动力条件、热力条件与水汽条件共同作用,使得＂蝴蝶＂在短时间内迅速加强为强台风.     

主成分分析与聚类分析在青岛夏季气温变化研究中的应用

选用青岛站1951-2010年每年6-8月各月平均气温资料,通过SAS软件进行了主成分分析和聚类分析,分析了近60 a夏季气温的年际气候变化.主成分分析的结果表明,第一主成分反映青岛夏季气温距平,其正（负）方向反映夏季气温的正（负）距平,其强度反映气温偏高（低）的程度;第二主成分则反映同一年内夏季各月间气温的差异,其绝对值越大,表示各月气温差异越大.聚类分析的结果表明,青岛站夏季月平均气温的变化可以分为3类：1）6月、7月气温较低,在8月升温;2）7月平均气温最高,6月、8月相对较低;3）6月气温低,7、8两月气温较高.其中1993、2003年为第一类,2005年为第二类,其余为第三类.     

极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述

极端天气气候事件(简称"极端事件")分为单站极端事件和区域性极端事件。本文回顾了极端事件的研究进展,首先回顾了单站极端温度、极端降水和干旱事件的观测研究及相关指数,进而对近年来不断增多的区域性极端事件研究做了简要回顾,最后还回顾了极端事件气候预测研究进展。同时,对国内外在极端事件气候监测和预测业务现状进行了初步总结,并指出:在极端事件气候监测方面中国的业务产品较丰富,并率先开展了针对区域性极端事件的监测业务,但在产品表现形式上缺乏统一组织,特别是英文产品表现力严重不足;在极端事件气候预测方面,国家气候中心发展了两种方法:一个是基于物理统计的BP-CCA和OSR的干旱预测方法,另一个基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预报模式(DERF)的高温预测方法。最后,对极端事件监测和预测业务发展及相关科学问题给出展望,指出应根据极端事件的业务需求继续加强相关研究和业务能力建设。     

Effects of different operational modes on the flood‐induced turbidity current of a canyon‐shaped reservoir: case study on Liuxihe Reservoir,South China

Suspended matter is an important indicator of water quality in freshwater systems. The flood‐induced turbidity current plays a dominant role in the seasonal dynamic of suspended matter in the Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45′50″N; 113°46′52″E), a large, stratified reservoir at the Tropic of Cancer in southern China. Field measurements show that loading and distribution of suspended matter in the reservoir differ in typical wet, dry and medium years, as a result of different discharge volumes and water level variation patterns. Using historical data and the practical demand for water supply and flood control, we generalized two feasible reservoir operational modes: flood impounding mode (drawing down the reservoir to a low level before flood events to impound inflow during the flooding season) and moderate level change mode (drawing down the reservoir to a moderate level before flood events, then keeping the level within the flood control level during runoff events). To examine the effects of different operational modes and outlet depths on the reservoir's flood‐induced turbidity current, a numerical simulation model was applied in three types of hydrological conditions. The results show that the mode with moderate drawdown and recharge processes can decrease loading of suspended matter in spring and promote turbidity current release during flood events, and upper withdrawal can improve the effects of turbid water release. We suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality management in the reservoir operation stage, severe artificial water level fluctuation being avoided and selective withdrawal becoming an optional management measure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

静力平衡近似下大气中非线性对称运动的稳定性、分岔和突变

本文在考虑基本气流具有非线性切变情况下,导出了对称运动所满足的非线性常微分方程,并用非线性系统的稳定、分岔、突变理论,严格地讨论了非线性对称运动的稳定性、分岔和突变问题,获得了一个推广的对称不稳定判据,找到了突变产生的条件。     

“GNSS气象学”课程实践教学探讨

随着测绘学科与气象学科不断交叉与渗透,测绘相关理论、技术与方法在气象业务中的应用越来越深入,尤其全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）在气象行业中的广泛应用,急需大量的从事GNSS气象应用方面的高级工程技术人才。结合南京信息工程大学测绘工程专业开设的“GNSS气象学”课程,从实践教学内容、教学手段、考核方式、实践条件、师资队伍等几方面对该课程的实践教学进行了探讨,为高校培养测绘气象复合型人才提供参考。     

水汽层析代数重构算法

讨论了代数重构算法在水汽层析应用中的各种问题,包括约束条件的构造、层析初值的选择、松弛因子的计算、终止条件的确定等,给出了计算最优松弛因子的黄金分割搜索法和确定终止条件的NCP规则,对比分析了Kaczmarz、Randkaczmarz、Symkaczmarz、SART、Landweber、Cimmino、CAV、DROP等8种常见的代数重构算法,并以香港SatRef的观测数据进行了试验。试验结果表明,以上8种代数重构技术都能够满足水汽层析的要求;迭代终止条件比松弛因子更为重要;采用文中计算最优松弛因子的黄金分割搜索法和NCP迭代终止条件,CAV算法结果最优,其次为Cimmino算法。     

PLAM指数跟踪方法对中国沙尘天气过程及其波动变化特征的研究

采用1980-2011年气象台站地面气象要素观测资料、高空探空资料,时间和空间加密气象观测站资料,以及中国气象档案馆原始天气图表等资料,基于沙尘气溶胶浓度（PM₁₀）潜势源地贡献函数PSCF（Potential source contribution function）的沙尘系统追踪方法,发展空气质量气象条件PLAM（……）指数对沙尘天气过程的路径跟踪,给出1980-2011年东北亚沙尘天气过程特征分布;采用Spline趋势分析,讨论沙尘天气系统强度的年变化特征。结果表明：基于气溶胶浓度PSCF函数和气象条件PLAM指数追踪得出,中国和东亚地区沙尘天气过程年际强度变化并非单调减弱,具有历史持续性与转折突变性并存的波状变化趋势,出现准10 a的高低频活动特征。     

Operational Evaluation of the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by a CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar System

In this paper, the quantitative precipitation estimation based on hydrometeor classification (HCA-QPE) algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar promoted by the CINRAD/SA radar of China. The HCA-QPE algorithm, the localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall (CSU-HIDRO) and Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE) algorithms, and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE (DRVC-QPE) algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30, 2017 in the Guangdong Province. The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction, its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5mm h^(-1); and the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater the QPE improvement. And the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms. This study preliminarily verified the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.     

手持式激光测距仪前级接收通道的相关问题研究

介绍了手持式激光测距仪前置放大电路的设计方法,并且针对便携式设备供电的特殊性,给出了单电源供电放大电路的解决方案,较好地解决了前级接收通道电路设计的相关问题.