We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
The Lufilian foreland is a triangular-shaped area located in the SE of the Democratic Republic of Congo and to the NE of the Lufilian arc, which hosts the well-known Central African Copperbelt. The Lufilian foreland recently became an interesting area with several vein-type (e.g., Dikulushi) and stratiform (e.g., Lufukwe and Mwitapile) copper occurrences. The Lufilian foreland stratiform Cu mineralization is, to date, observed in sandstone rock units belonging to the Nguba and Kundelungu Groups (Katanga Supergroup).The Mwitapile sandstone-hosted stratiform Cu prospect is located in the north eastern part of the Lufilian foreland. The host rock for the Cu mineralization is the Sonta Sandstone of the Ngule Subgroup (Kundelungu Group). A combined remote sensing, petrographic and fluid inclusion microthermometric analysis was performed at Mwitapile and compared with similar analysis previously carried out at Lufukwe to present a metallogenic model for the Mwitapile- and Lufukwe-type stratiform copper deposits. Interpretation of ETM+ satellite images for the Mwitapile prospect and the surrounding areas indicate the absence of NE–SW or ENE–WSW faults, similar to those observed controlling the mineralization at Lufukwe. Faults with these orientations are, however, present to the NW, W, SW and E of the Mwitapile prospect. At Mwitapile, the Sonta Sandstone host rock is intensely compacted, arkosic to calcareous with high silica cementation (first generation of authigenic quartz overgrowths). In the Sonta Sandstone, feldspar and calcite are present in disseminated, banded and nodular forms. Intense dissolution of these minerals caused the presence of disseminated rectangular, pipe-like and nodular dissolution cavities. Sulfide mineralization is mainly concentrated in these cavities. The hypogene sulfide minerals consist of two generations of pyrite, chalcopyrite, bornite and chalcocite, separated by a second generation of authigenic quartz overgrowth. The hypogene sulfide minerals are replaced by supergene digenite and covellite. Fluid inclusion microthermometry on the first authigenic quartz phase indicates silica precipitation from an H2O–NaCl–CaCl2 fluid with a minimum temperature between 111 and 182 °C and a salinity between 22.0 and 25.5 wt.% CaCl2 equiv. Microthermometry on the second authigenic quartz overgrowths and in secondary trails related to the mineralization indicate that the mineralizing fluid is characterized by variable temperatures (Th = 120 to 280 °C) and salinities (2.4 to 19.8 wt.% NaCl equiv.) and by a general trend of increasing temperatures with increasing salinities.Comparison between Mwitapile and Lufukwe indicates that the stratiform Cu mineralization in the two deposits is controlled by similar sedimentary, diagenetic and structural factors and likely formed from a similar mineralizing fluid. A post-orogenic timing is proposed for the mineralization in both deposits. The main mineralization controlling factors are grain size, clay and pyrobitumen content, the amount and degree of feldspar and/or calcite dissolution and the presence of NE–SW to ENE–WSW faults. The data support a post-orogenic fluid-mixing model for the Mwitapile- and Lufukwe-type sandstone-hosted stratiform Cu deposits, in which the mineralization is related to the mixing between a Cu-rich hydrothermal fluid, with a temperature up to 280 °C and a maximum salinity of 19.8 wt.% NaCl equiv., with a colder low salinity reducing fluid present in the sandstone host rock. The mineralizing fluid likely migrated upwards to the sandstone source rocks along NE–SW to ENE–WSW orientated faults. At Lufukwe, the highest copper grades at surface outcrops and boreholes were found along and near to these faults. At Mwitapile, where such faults are 2 to 3 km away, the Cu grades are much lower than at Lufukwe. Copper precipitation was possibly promoted by reduction from pre-existing hydrocarbons and non-copper sulfides and by the decrease in fluid salinity and temperature during mixing. Based on this research, new Cu prospects were proposed at Lufukwe and Mwitapile and a set of recommendations for further Cu exploration in the Lufilian foreland is presented. 相似文献
The imbalance between incoming and outgoing salt causes salinization of soils and sub-soils that result in increasing the
salinity of stream-flows and agriculture land. This salinization is a serious environmental hazard particularly in semi-arid
and arid lands. In order to estimate the magnitude of the hazard posed by salinity, it is important to understand and identify
the processes that control salt movement from the soil surface through the root zone to the ground water and stream flows.
In the present study, Malaprabha sub-basin (up to dam site) has been selected which has two distinct climatic zones, sub-humid
(upstream of Khanapur) and semi-arid region (downstream of Khanapur). In the upstream, both surface and ground waters are
used for irrigation, whereas in the downstream mostly groundwater is used. Both soils and ground waters are more saline in
downstream parts of the study area. In this study we characterized the soil salinity and groundwater quality in both areas.
An attempt is also made to model the distribution of potassium concentration in the soil profile in response to varying irrigation
conditions using the SWIM (Soil-Water Infiltration and Movement) model. Fair agreement was obtained between predicted and
measured results indicating the applicability of the model. 相似文献
MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because
of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for
water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing
with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and
domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development
of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology.
Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing
of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship
between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater
flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater
resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water
budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December
2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 106 m3 and the total discharge was 56,530 × 106 m3 the budget deficit was −7,156 × 106 m3. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When
the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core
program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online. 相似文献
Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite
this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed
in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical
flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km2 of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph)
in the Sarria River basin (155 km2, NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number)
by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling
(one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km2 urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed
subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with
frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic
method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence
intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional
events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both
methods.
Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology. 相似文献
The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones.
There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa
coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi
and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling
tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present
study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical
models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution
nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides
a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative
phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the
limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly. 相似文献