一种粒子群算法求解最优抵偿投影面的方法

为了更加有效地控制在建立高斯平面直角坐标系时产生的实测边长投影变形,该文研究利用粒子群非线性算法在有限维度的解空间内,动态、自适应地求解抵偿投影面参数的方法。结果表明:采用粒子群算法得到的抵偿投影面结果不但满足ym不同取值时投影变形的限差要求,同时相应的投影变形量绝对值均小于经典算法给出的结果。在控制实测边长投影变形时,该方法具有同时满足快速收敛与遍历解空间全部潜在解的优势。     

客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析

利用因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台,建立了云南省125个气象站的降水、温度客观要素预报方程.对比试验表明,绝大多数组合因子都优于单因子,组合因子预报方程的质量普遍比单因子预报方程好.预报检验结果显示,干季的降水预报尚未达到可用程度,雨季小雨及中雨、大雨的预报有一定业务指导意义,对于反映中小尺度系统的暴雨天气预报效果较差,在因子的选择上还需要做大量细致的工作.温度预报具有一定的参考价值,但还有待进一步改进.     

陕西关中重污染天气低空流场的分型研究

利用陕西关中区域内五市(西安、咸阳、渭南、铜川、宝鸡)有PM2.5监测数据以来的2014—2019年各市污染指数(AQI)筛选代表年,定义关中区域污染和区域重污染天气过程,结合陕西WRF(Weather research&forecasting model)模拟数据,对影响关中区域的流场分型,并重点研究了各流场分型与P...     

Application of homotopy parameter inversion method in Miyun Reservoir

The large-scale convergence of homotopy parametric inversion method on the water quality model parameters calculated was used, with application in parametric inversion calculation of total phosphorus of Beijing Miyun Reservoir. Through calculated and compared the error of sedimentation rate by homotopy parametric inversion method and genetic inversion calculation method, the results indicate that homotopy parametric inversion method has good stability, calculating speed, and even if the initial selection away from the objective function, the solution still has a good convergence.     

Comparison of spectral and time domain calibration methods for precipitation‐discharge processes

Hydrological model parameter estimation is an important aspect in hydrologic modelling. Usually, parameters are estimated through an objective function minimization, quantifying the mismatch between the model results and the observations. The objective function choice has a large impact on the sensitivity analysis and calibration outcomes. In this study, it is assessed whether spectral objective functions can compete with an objective function in the time domain for optimization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three empirical spectral objective functions were applied, based on matching (i) Fourier amplitude spectra, (ii) periodograms and (iii) Fourier series of simulated and observed discharge time series. It is shown that most sensitive parameters and their optimal values are distinct for different objective functions. The best results were found through calibration with an objective function based on the square difference between the simulated and observed discharge Fourier series coefficients. The potential strengths and weaknesses of using a spectral objective function as compared to utilising a time domain objective function are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对T106分析／预报场可预报性的初步分析

本文围绕日常天气预报的需求和为区域数值天气预报模式定义天气背景场和初值场的需要，针对9210工程MICAPS系统中T106谱模式的客观分析场和预报场的可预报性进行了初步诊断，定量分析比较了T106、欧洲中心ECMWT、华盛顿KEBC和日本JAPAN数值模式对天气环流形势和预报的统计误差，并初步探讨了模式误差的自身预报问题。文中指出了T106模式的误差源主要来自于其客观分析场的固定误差，提出了以集成客观分析场作为客观分析，提供预报员预报参考或作为数值预报的背景初值场。     

Interpolation of runoff applying objective methods

The paper treats the problem of interpolating annual runoff from regular streamflow measurements in a regional scale applying objective methods. These methods are adapted to point processes like temperature and precipitation. Modifications are needed to account for the fact that streamflow is an integrated process following the hierarchical structure of river systems. The most straightforward method is therefore to relate the interpolation to the existing river network. For theoretical reasons it is preferable to interpolate the lateral inflow rather than the flow in the river itself. Procedures for the interpolation with the different approaches are developed and discussed. Special attention is put on the question how the equation of continuity can be satisfied. The Laagen drainage basin in southern Norway is used as a test area. The data consist of annual observations of streamflow and digital map information on river networks and drainage basin boundaries.     

Objective Frontal Analysis Techniques Applied to Extreme/Non-Extreme Precipitation Events

A simple method of the objective frontal analysis (OFA) based on a thermal definition of atmospheric fronts is proposed for the area of Central Europe with the aid of gridded numerical weather prediction model (NWP model) outputs. The OFA includes both mathematical and graphical techniques that enable a computer to draw fronts entirely automatically in atmospheric cross-sections by means of one locating equation and four masking criteria. The OFA also enables to analyse the frontal wave position and the type, activity, and future development of fronts.The OFA is applied to two synoptically analogous cold-frontal situations, which occurred over the Czech Republic in summer season and were characterised by quite different precipitation amounts. The outputs (12h, 18h, and 24h forecasts) of the NWP model Europa Modell/Deutschland Modell are used in computations. The equivalent potential temperature is considered as an input thermal parameter of the OFA. The impact of applying and changing the OFA masking criteria is various and among others also depends on synoptic situation. The comparison between the objective and subjective analysed fronts subserves to evaluate the values of masking threshold constants. Some obtained results of the analysis of the extreme precipitation situation support the possibility of enhanced precipitation amounts. The analysis of the second non-extreme precipitation situation revealed a few different features that do not support the forecast of enhanced precipitation amounts. The results show the OFA could contribute to the improvement of the general short-range weather forecast.     

预报员在未来天气预报中的作用探讨

在没有数值天气预报的年代 ,天气预报是由预报员作出的 ,随着数值天气预报业务水平的不断提高 ,它首先取代了预报员的天气形势预报 ,目前正进入取代部分天气要素预报的时代。未来 1 0～ 2 0年中尺度数值天气预报和集合预报以及后处理技术将获得重大进展 ,客观预报有可能取代目前预报员的一些预报项目 ,但是预报员的作用仍然是不可缺少的 ,但需要按与时俱进的观点 ,认真分析客观预报与主观预报的最佳结合点 ,以不断提高天气预报水平     

基于性能的结构抗震设计研究

介绍了结构抗震性能水准的划分、抗震性能目标的确定以及常用的基于性能的抗震设计方法。文中着重探讨了按延性系数进行结构性能抗震设计的方法和步骤，最后指出性能抗震设计方法今后的发展趋势。