瞬变波动力强迫对初夏至盛夏东亚高空西风急流变化的影晌

利用NCEP／NCAR逐El再分析资料,探讨了瞬变波动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流北跳和急流中心西移的影响。结果表明,瞬变波的动力强迫作用有利于急流北跳的发生,但不利于急流中心西移的发生。通过分析年际尺度上初夏至盛夏急流变化的早晚与瞬变波异常的关系发现,对于急流北跳发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用为正反馈作用;对于中心西移发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用则为负反馈作用。可见,瞬变波的动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流变化及其发生早晚具有重要影响,但对急流北跳和急流中心西移的作用显著不同。     

Northward Shift in Landfall Locations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Last Four Decades

This study analyzes landfall locations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific during 1979–2018.Results demonstrate that the landfall locations of TCs over this region have shifted northward during the last four decades,primarily due to the shift of landfalling TC tracks,with the decreasing/increasing proportion of westward/northward TC tracks.In particular,the northward shift of the landfalling TCs was not related to their formation locations,which have not markedly changed,whereas"no-landed"TCs have significantly shifted northward.TC movement was significantly and positively correlated to the zonal component of the steering flow,while the correlation between TC movement and the meridional component of the steering flow was relatively unobvious.The westward steering flow in the tropical central Pacific that occurred around the formation and early development of the westward TCs was significantly weakened,which was unfavorable for their westward movement,thereby,causing the higher proportions of northward moving tracks.This weakened westward flow was related to the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge,which was caused by significant weakening of the southern part of the subtropical high.The vertical wind shear,sea surface temperature,and convective available potential energy also showed that the northern region of the western North Pacific became more favorable for TC development,whereas the upper divergence,low-layer relative vorticity,and accumulated water vapor content were not obviously related to the northward shift of TCs.     

北太平洋海温的气候跃度及其对中国汛期降水的影响

应用滑动Ｔ检验方法对北太平洋海温１０年际的气候跃变进行了研究，指出在７０年代末至８０年代初确实存在着一次明显的气候跃变，而跃变前后北太产洋海温结构，厄尔尼诺事件的发展过程都明显不同，进而讨论了北太平洋海温跃变前后对我国６－８月汛期降水量的影响，指出海温跃变前我国汛期降水量在东北地区偏少，华北偏多，长江流域偏水，华南偏多，而跃变后则相反。     

2018年盛夏副热带高压极端偏北的原因分析

2018年盛夏辽宁的阶段性高温与副热带高压(简称"副高")的极端偏北有关,利用1981—2018年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ECMWF再分析资料和中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0),主要以候的时间尺度,从大气环流异常的形成及其原因进行分析,解释了2018年盛夏副高极端偏北的原因及影响机制。结果表明:影响副高位置偏北的因素主要有三方面。一是来自欧洲上空的高压脊发展并东移,与副高断裂开的一支结合,使得副高北移;二是南半球冷空气活动,导致向北的越赤道气流加强,从而造成赤道辐合带(intertropical convergence zone,ITCZ)北移,进一步引起副高北移;三是由于青藏高原东部感热增强,其上升气流经由一候到两候的时间在辽宁和渤海地区下沉。三方面因素的共同影响造成了副高位置的极端偏北。     

Winkler地基上有限长梁联合共振分析

为进一步完善弹性地基上梁的非线性振动理论以及满足实际工程的需要,本文对三种联合共振情况进行了研究。文中基于已建立的Winkler地基上有限长梁的非线性振动方程,运用Galerkin离散法以及多尺度法推导其稳态运动方程组,分析了主/次联合共振时,结构参数及初始条件对系统幅频响应曲线、调谐-相位曲线的影响,初步探讨了主/超联合共振、次/超联合共振的基本性质。研究结果表明:当且仅当两个激励频率是可公度关系时,联合共振才存在稳态响应;对于一个给定的调谐参数,系统最多存在七个解,而解的最终形式是由初始条件决定;系统参数及初始条件的微小变动,可能会激烈地改变系统的响应;工程中为了较好地抑制结构的振动,必须选择合适的方法提高系统的刚度。     

Northward expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool in late 1990s and early 2000s

Based on 48-year (1958-2006) ocean reanalysis data of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and 23-year (1984-2006) global ocean-surface heat flux products developed by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux Project, meridional variation of the western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is addressed. The results show that there is a significant expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This variation is mainly within 120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N, we define this region (120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N) as the core region. Furthermore, analyses on upper ocean heat budget show that the short wave radiation plays a key role in the northward expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the core region. It is proved that the northward expansion may be caused by the change of the mixed layer which became shallower in 1994-2006 compared with 1984-1993 in the study region. The short wave radiation flux distribution within the shallower mixed layer leads to a positive anomaly in seawater temperature, promoting the northward expansion of the WPWP.     

地震不稳定性的一个简单模型

基于断层面强度的非均匀性,将断层面的宏观破裂过程看作是断面局部微元的破裂累积过程,假设断层局部微元强度遵循Weibull概率分布,从统计力学角度推导出了宏观的断层载荷.变形的全过程本构关系.采用一维地震力学模型,以远场位移a为控制变量,用稳定性理论研究了地震不稳定性问题.研究表明,系统刚度比(围岩刚度与断层刚度之比)β是影响地震发生的重要参数,只有当β<1时才会出现地震失稳,且应力突跳发生在平衡路径曲线的位移转向点,并给出了地震过程的3个重要参数(地震后断层半错距、地震应力降和释放的弹性能)的表达式.当β≥1时,不会发生地震,仅是缓慢的断层滑动,属于无震滑动.     

地壳流变结构控制作用下的龙门山断裂带地震发生机理

青藏高原东缘低地形变速率的龙门山断裂带上相继发生了2008汶川M_w7.9级地震和2013芦山M_w6.6级地震.地震勘探与震源定位结果揭示了龙门山区域地震空间分布特征：纵向上,龙门山断裂带这两次地震主震均发生在龙门山断裂带上地壳的底部（14~19 km）,绝大部分余震均发生在上地壳范围（5~25 km）,而在其中、下地壳深度范围内鲜见余震发生;横向上,地震（M_w>3）在龙门山断裂带青藏高原一侧密集分布且曾有大震发生,而四川盆地地震稀少（M_w>3）.为探讨龙门山断裂带地震发生机理,并解释以上龙门山区域地震空间分布特征,本文建立了龙门山断裂带西南段跨芦山地震震中区域的四种不同流变结构的龙门山断裂带三维岩石圈模型,以地表GPS观测资料为约束边界条件,数值模拟龙门山断裂带岩石圈在数千年以上长期匀速构造挤压作用下的应力积累特征,探讨了地壳分层流变性质对地壳应力积累的影响,分析了该区域地震空间分布与构造应力积累速率的关系.计算结果表明：该区域在数千年的应力积累过程中,脆性上地壳中应力表现近于恒定值的线性增长趋势,龙门山断裂带上地壳底部出现应力集中积累现象,这一应力集中现象可以解释龙门山断裂带汶川地震与芦山地震主震的发生,及其大部分余震在脆性上地壳中的触发;青藏高原一侧上地壳应力积累速率远远高于四川盆地的应力积累速率,这一应力积累分布现象可以解释龙门山区域青藏高原一侧地震密集而四川盆地地震稀少的地震空间分布特征;通过比较不同流变结构模型中的应力积累状态,认为导致这一应力积累空间分布状态的重要控制因素在于青藏高原中、下地壳较低的黏滞系数与四川盆地中、下地壳较高的黏滞系数的差异.在柔性的中、下地壳内,应力增长近于指数形式,稳定状态之后其应力增长速率近于零,构造应力积累难以达到岩石破裂强度,因而鲜见地震发生.地壳各层位的应力增长率差异与地震成层分布的现象共同揭示了龙门山区域岩石圈分层流变结构：脆性上地壳、韧性中、下地壳（青藏高原一侧较弱,四川盆地一侧较强）、韧性岩石圈上地幔.     

DISCONTINUOUS FLOW OF TURBID DENSITY CURRENTS I. CHANNEL EXPANSION AND CONTRACTION

Laboratory experiments on turbid density currents were conducted to observe the flow features of these currents with abrupt contracted and expanded reaches. Experimental data were used to determine water entrainment coefficients for both channel expansion and contraction. Expressions for turbid density currents with water entrainment coefficients in abrupt contracted and expanded reaches were derived, and compared with experimental data.     

祁连山西段冰川区与非冰川区气温梯度年内变化特征

为研究冰川区与非冰川区不同下垫面对气温梯度的影响。本文利用祁连山老虎沟流域4 180 m, 4 550 m和5 040 m处的三个气象站及肃南、肃北、托勒、玉门、酒泉、瓜州、敦煌等七个国家气象站2011-2013年的日平均气温资料,分析了祁连山西段冰川区与非冰川区年内气温梯度特征,并结合相应时段的降水资料以及其他气象因素对其变化特征做了分析。结果表明：（1）在非冰川区,气温梯度随海拔上升而增大,且有明显的月际波动特征,年内梯度呈现先减后增的趋势,夏季最大,冬季最小,年气温梯度为0.50℃·（100m）^-1;（2）在冰川区,气温梯度呈现先增后减的趋势,夏季最小,冬季最大,年气温梯度为0.61℃·（100m）^-1,日内变化特征为白天气温梯度变化幅度大但值较小,夜间变化幅度小,稳定在0.83℃·（100m）^-1左右,日内平均气温梯度为0.49℃·（100m）^-1;（3）冰川区与非冰川区年内温度梯度与降水梯度呈相反的变化趋势,表明降水对气温梯度变化有一定的影响。（4）由于非冰川区与冰川区下垫面不同,气温梯度呈相反的年内变化趋势,在由非冰川区气温推算冰面气温时必须考虑温跃值影响,老虎沟12号冰川年平均温跃值为1.30℃。