江淮入梅前后大气环流的演变特征和西太平洋副高北跳西伸的可能机制

该文首先采用合成分析的方法研究了江淮入梅前后大尺度大气环流的演变特征和西太平洋副热带高压西伸北跳的可能机制。研究结果表明, 江淮入梅前期的最显著的特征是:副热带高压首先在太平洋中部增强北跳, 而后向西扩展导致太平洋副高西部脊 (120°E) 的增强北跳。进一步分析表明, 在太平洋中部副热带高压的增强北跳和西伸之前, 副热带高压南侧ITCZ中对流和孟加拉湾北部的对流活动明显并且都经历了一次增强活跃过程, 这意味着热带ITCZ和孟加拉湾北部对流的异常活跃可能对副热带高压的增强北跳西伸产生影响。全球大气环流模式模拟结果表明, 赤道中太平洋ITCZ中对流异常活跃不仅可导致副热带高压的增强北移, 而且还可导致副热带高压西伸, 与诊断分析结果相一致。     

大面积开荒扰动下的三江平原近45年气候变化

黑龙江省三江平原近45年来，经过大规模的开荒，农田已取代原来的沼泽和沼泽化湿地，成为现今三江平原的主要景观类型，其下垫面发生了巨大变化，采用1955－1999年三江平原地区21个气象台站的气温，降水，日照时数和气压4个要素的资料，分析近45年来三江平原的气候变化和发展趋势：用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测，定量地认述了三江平原地区的气候变化事实，对于各气候要素出现在20世纪60年代，70年代和80年代的突变事实，尤其是20世纪70年代以来的阶梯式的持续变暖事实，认为三江平原区域气候系统内部的变化可能是引起这些突变的直接原因。     

Large tectonic movement of the Japan Arc in late Cenozoic times inferred from paleomagnetism: Review and synthesis

Abstract Paleomagnetic studies facilitate an understanding of the evolution of the Japan Arc in Cenozoic times from the perspective of tectonic movement. The Japan Arc rifted from the Asian continent in the middle Miocene, while East Asia, including the Japan Arc, moved northward at the same time. The rifting phenomenon of the Japan Arc is described by differential rotation of Southwest and Northeast Japan. Southwest Japan was rotated clockwise through about 45° and Northeast Japan was rotated counter-clockwise through about 40°. This differential rotation occurred concurrently at about 15 Ma. Eighty percent of the rotation was completed during a period of 1.8 million years. These factors lead us to propose a'double door'opening mode with a fast spreading rate of 21 cm/yr for the evolution of the Japan Sea, suggesting that the asthenosphere with a low viscosity was injected beneath the Japan Sea area. The large northward motion of East Asia in relation to Europe is expected from the apparent polar wander path constructed from the paleomagnetic data of the Japan Arc. East Asia may have moved northward by more than 1700 km between 20 Ma and 10 Ma accompanied by a slightly clockwise rotation of 10°. The eastern part of the Eurasian plate was subjected to extreme geodynamic conditions in late Cenozoic times.     

近31年登陆北上台风特征及其成因分析

为探讨对我国产生严重影响的登陆北上台风的成因，利用1975—2005年台风资料及NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析等资料，分析了登陆北上台风的气候特征及其大尺度环流和物理量分布特征。结果发现，不仅西北太平洋副热带高压位置和强度变化对台风登陆北上起决定性作用，而且西风带系统和南亚高压活动有利于台风登陆后北折和持续北上也有不可忽视的影响。总结归纳台风登陆北上的预报着眼点，希望有助于提高此类台风的预报预警能力。     

天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征及其变化趋势

以天山公路沿线9个气象水文站1956～2005年年降水量资料为依据,采用均值统计参数和线性方程分析了天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征以及变化趋势,在此基础上,应用小波分析方法对天山公路沿线各桩号代表站年降水量做周期分析,结果表明:天山公路沿线多数路段的年降水时间序列包含了多个不同时间尺度的周期变化和演变特征,具有10～17a、8～9a以及5a以下的周期变化,10～30a时间尺度突变点多出现于20世纪80年代熏     

The dynamics of a channel-fed lava flow on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote

A short length of channel on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote, provides us the opportunity to examine the dynamics of lava flowing in a channel that extends over a sudden break in slope. The 1–2-m-wide, 0.5–2-m-deep channel was built during the 1730–1736 eruptions on Lanzarote and exhibits a sinuous, well-formed channel over a steep (11° slope) 100-m-long proximal section. Over-flow units comprising smooth pahoehoe sheet flow, as well as evidence on the inner channel walls for multiple (at least 11) flow levels, attest to unsteady flow in the channel. In addition, superelevation is apparent at each of the six bends along the proximal channel section. Superelevation results from banking of the lava as it moves around the bend thus causing preferential construction of the outer bank. As a result, the channel profile at each bend is asymmetric with an outer bank that is higher than the inner bank. Analysis of superelevation indicates flow velocities of ~8 m s^–1. Our analysis of the superelevation features is based on an inertia-gravity balance, which we show is appropriate, even though the down-channel flow is in laminar flow. We use a viscosity-gravity balance model, together with the velocities calculated from superelevation, to obtain viscosities in the range 25–60 Pa s (assuming that the lava behaved as a Newtonian liquid). Estimated volume fluxes are in the range 7–12 m³ s^–1. An apparent down-flow increase in derived volume flux may have resulted from variable supply or bulking up of the flow due to vesiculation. Where the channel moves over a sharp break in slope and onto slopes of ~6°, the channel becomes less well defined and widens considerably. At the break of slope, an elongate ridge extends across the channel. We speculate that this ridge was formed as a result of a reduction in velocity immediately below the break of slope to allow deposition of entrained material or accretion of lava to the channel bed as a result of a change in flow regime or depth.     

近55年中国大陆地区降水突变的区域特征

利用中国大陆1951～2003年160站较为完整的降水观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析方法,确定了中国大陆不同区域降水突变事件的大致时间,研究揭示了近55年中国大陆降水突变事件变化的区域特征。得出如下结论:(1)近55年来,中国大陆年平均降水量正在逐步减少。华北地区、四川盆地和东北地区年降水量减少明显。年降水量增加的区域位于长江中下游及其以南地区,另外,西北部分地区和青藏高原南部略有增加。(2)中南地区和青藏云地区年降水在20世纪90年代中后期出现突变,华北地区降水突变出现在20世纪70年代中期,东北地区突变出现在20世纪60年代中期,华南地区降水在20世纪70年代初期出现突变。     

登陆北上台风暴雨突发性增强的一种机制研究

采用一个三维混合模式对1992年8月30日至9月2日一次登陆北上台风暴雨过程进行了模拟。模式可以较准确地预报出与地面倒槽相一致的地面降水位置及降水量值。模拟的台风云系结构与卫星云图比较表明,外围云场与实例云况吻合很好,验证了本模式模拟卫星云图的能力,对卫星云图预报有实际意义;暴雨突然增幅的直接原因是高层冰云与低层供水云的突然北移重叠造成的。受地面倒槽附近强烈辐合抬升的动力作用,各相态云系的分布与垂直运动紧密相关;辐合线右侧的东南低空急流为降水的增幅及维持提供水汽来源;云的相变潜热非绝热加热作用对暴雨的增幅及维持具有正反馈作用,它对暴雨维持具有积极贡献。     

气候突变的聚类分析

气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品．本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点．     

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