Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Modeling of Lightning Observed in Galileo Images of Jupiter

We study lightning on Jupiter and the clouds illuminated by the lightning using images taken by the Galileo orbiter. The Galileo images have a resolution of ∼25 km/pixel and are able to resolve the shape of single lightning spots, which have half widths (radii) at half the maximum intensity in the range 45-80 km. We compare the shape and width of lightning flashes in the images with simulated flashes produced by our 3D Monte Carlo light-scattering model.The model calculates Monte Carlo scattering of photons in a 3D opacity distribution. During each scattering event, light is partially absorbed. The new direction of the photon after scattering is chosen according to a Henyey-Greenstein phase function. An image from each direction is produced by accumulating photons emerging from the cloud in a small range (bins) of emission angles. The light source is modeled either as a point or a vertical line.A plane-parallel cloud layer does not always fit the data. In some cases the cloud over the light source appears to resemble cumulus clouds on Earth. Lightning is estimated to occur at least as deep as the bottom of the expected water cloud. For the six flashes studied, we find that the clouds above the lightning are optically thick (τ>5). Jovian flashes are more regular and circular than the largest terrestrial flashes observed from space. On Jupiter there is nothing equivalent to the 30-40-km horizontal flashes that are seen on Earth.     

CO2 Snow on Mars and Early Earth: Experimental Constraints

Greenhouse warming due to carbon dioxide atmospheres may be responsible for maintaining the early Earth's surface temperature above freezing and may even have allowed for liquid water on early Mars. However, the high levels of CO₂ required for such warming should have also resulted in the formation of CO₂ clouds. These clouds, depending on their particle size, could lead to either warming or cooling. The particle size in turn is determined by the nucleation and growth conditions. Here we present laboratory studies of the nucleation and growth of carbon dioxide on water ice under martian atmospheric conditions. We find that a critical saturation, S=1.34, is required for nucleation, corresponding to a contact parameter between solid water and solid carbon dioxide of m=0.95. We also find that after nucleation occurs, growth of CO₂ is very rapid, and we report the growth rates at a number of supersaturations. Because growth would be expected to continue until the CO₂ pressure is lowered to its vapor pressure, we expect particles larger than those being currently suggested for the present and past martian atmospheres. Using this information in a microphysical model described in a companion paper, we find that CO₂ clouds are best described as “snow,” having a relatively small number of large particles.     

Role of H2O and CO2 Ices in Martian Climate Changes

In order to study the stability of martian climate, we constructed a two-dimensional (horizontal-vertical) energy balance model. The long-term CO₂ mass exchange process between the atmosphere and CO₂ ice caps is investigated with particular attention to the effect of planetary ice distribution on the climate stability. Our model calculation suggests that high atmospheric pressure presumed for past Mars would be unstabilized if H₂O ice widely prevailed. As a result, a cold climate state might have been achieved by the condensation of atmospheric CO₂ onto ice caps. On the other hand, the low atmospheric pressure, which is buffered by the CO₂ ice cap and likely close to the present pressure, would be unstabilized if the CO₂ ice albedo decreased. This may have led the climate into a warm state with high atmospheric pressure owing to complete evaporation of CO₂ ice cap. Through the albedo feedback mechanisms of H₂O and CO₂ ices in the atmosphere-ice cap system, Mars may have experienced warm and cold climates episodically in its history.     

Microwave Remote Sensing of the Temperature and Distribution of Sulfur Compounds in the Lower Atmosphere of Venus

A multi-wavelength radio frequency observation of Venus was performed on April 5, 1996, with the Very Large Array to investigate potential variations in the vertical and horizontal distribution of temperature and the sulfur compounds sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and sulfuric acid vapor (H₂SO₄(g)) in the atmosphere of the planet. Brightness temperature maps were produced which feature significantly darkened polar regions compared to the brighter low-latitude regions at both observed frequencies. This is the first time such polar features have been seen unambiguously in radio wavelength observations of Venus. The limb-darkening displayed in the maps helps to constrain the vertical profile of H₂SO₄(g), temperature, and to some degree SO₂. The maps were interpreted by applying a retrieval algorithm to produce vertical profiles of temperature and abundance of H₂SO₄(g) given an assumed sub-cloud abundance of SO₂. The results indicate a substantially higher abundance of H₂SO₄(g) at high latitudes (above 45°) than in the low-latitude regions. The retrieved temperature profiles are up to 25 K warmer than the profile obtained by the Pioneer Venus sounder probe at altitudes below 40 km (depending on location and assumed SO₂ abundance). For 150 ppm of SO₂, it is more consistent with the temperature profile obtained by Mariner 5, extrapolated to the surface via a dry adiabat. The profiles obtained for H₂SO₄(g) at high latitudes are consistent with those derived from the Magellan radio occultation experiments, peaking at around 8 ppm at an altitude of 46 km and decaying rapidly away from that altitude. At low latitudes, no significant H₂SO₄(g) is observed, regardless of the assumed SO₂ content. This is well below that measured by Mariner 10 (Lipa and Tyler 1979, Icarus39, 192-208), which peaked at ∼14 ppm near 47 km. Our results favor ≤100 ppm of SO₂ at low latitudes and ≤50 ppm in polar regions. The low-latitude value is statistically consistent with the results of Bézard et al. (1983, Geophs. Res. Lett.20, 1587-1590), who found that a sub-cloud SO₂ abundance of 130±40 ppm best matched their observations in the near-IR. The retrieved temperature profile and higher abundance of H₂SO₄(g) in polar regions are consistent with a strong equatorial-to-polar, cloud-level flow due to a Hadley cell in the atmosphere of Venus.     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Analysis of gravity waves in the tropical middle atmosphere over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) with lidar using wavelet techniques

The capabilities of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the multiresolution analysis (MRA) are presented in this work to measure vertical gravity wave characteristics. Wave properties are extracted from the first data set of Rayleigh lidar obtained between heights of 30 km and 60 km over La Reunion Island (21°S, 55°E) during the Austral winter in 1994 under subtropical conditions. The altitude-wavelength representations deduced from these methods provide information on the time and spatial evolution of the wave parameters of the observed dominant modes in vertical profiles such as the vertical wavelengths, the vertical phase speeds, the amplitudes of temperature perturbations and the distribution of wave energy. The spectra derived from measurements show the presence of localized quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths <10 km. Three methods based on the wavelet techniques show evidence of a downward phase progression. A first climatology of the dominant modes observed during the Austral winter period reveals a dominant night activity of 2 or 3 quasi-monochromatic structures with vertical wavelengths between 1/2 km from the stratopause, 3/4 km and 6/10 km observed between heights of 30 km and 60 km. In addition, it reveals a dominant activity of modes with a vertical phase speed of –0.3 m/s and observed periods peaking at 3/4 h and 9 h. The characteristics of averaged vertical wavelengths appear to be similar to those observed during winter in the southern equatorial region and in the Northern Hemisphere at mid-latitudes.     

The role of sodium bicarbonate in the nucleation of noctilucent clouds

It is proposed that a component of meteoric smoke, sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO₃), provides particularly effective condensation nuclei for noctilucent clouds. This assertion is based on three conditions being met. The first is that NaHCO₃ is present at sufficient concentration (10⁴ cm^–3) in the upper mesosphere between 80 and 90 km. It is demonstrated that there is strong evidence for this based on recent laboratory measurements coupled with atmospheric modelling. The second condition is that the thermodynamics of NaHCO₃(H₂O)_n cluster formation allow spontaneous nucleation to occur under mesospheric conditions at temperatures below 140 K. The Gibbs free energy changes for forming clusters with n = 1 and 2 were computed from quantum calculations using hybrid density functional/Hartree-Fock (B3LYP) theory and a large basis set with added polarization and diffuse functions. The results were then extrapolated to higher n using an established dependence of the free energy on cluster size and the free energy for the sublimation of H₂O to bulk ice. A 1-dimensional model of sodium chemistry was then employed to show that spontaneous nucleation to form ice particles (n > 100) should occur between 84 and 89 km in the high-latitude summer mesosphere. The third condition is that other metallic components of meteoric smoke are less effective condensation nuclei, so that the total number of potential nuclei is small relative to the amount of available H₂O. Quantum calculations indicate that this is probably the case for major constituents such as Fe(OH)₂, FeO₃ and MgCO₃.     

IMPACT: an implicit time integration scheme for chemical species and families

The implicit time integration scheme of Stott and Harwood (1993) was proposed as an efficient scheme for use in three-dimensional chemical models of the atmosphere. The scheme was designed for chemistry schemes using chemical families, in which species with short lifetimes are grouped into longer-lived families. Further study with more complex chemistry, more species and reactions showed the scheme to be non-convergent and unstable under certain conditions; particularly for the perturbed chemical scenarios of polar stratospheric winters. In this work the scheme has been improved by revising the treatment of families and the convergence properties of the scheme. The new scheme has been named IMPACT (IMPlicit Algorithm for Chemical Time-stepping). It remains easy to implement and produces simulations that compare well with integrations using more accurate higher order schemes.