影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。     

西藏甲马铜多金属矿床远景预测

近年研究表明，作为西藏境内少数几个大型矿床之一的甲马铜多金属矿床先后经历了燕山晚期海底喷流积积成矿作用和喜马拉雅期斑岩型成矿作用，相应形成矿区层状主矿休和斑岩型矿体。矿区地质特征、主成矿元素空间分布规律分析后认为：矿区东、西段各存在一个喷流中心，与之相关的层状矿体及深部脉状、网脉状矿体是今后找矿的重点靶区；喜马拉雅期斑岩成矿作用在区域及矿区内均有显示，具有不可忽视的成矿潜力。     

中超长钻孔灌注桩的沉降计算

针对现有的桩基沉降计算理论不仅难以完整地描述桩－土系统的复杂程度，在应用上也难以满足各方面的要求，根据中超长钻孔灌注桩的实际情况，采取一些合理的简化措施后，提出了一种实用的桩基沉降计算方法，实例分析表明，该方法可较好地预测桩的沉降量。     

人工值守台数字化地震仪标定原理

推导了人工台数字化地震仪的分段标定公式，提出数字化记录系统的微分近似标定和拾震器阻尼衰减法标定的方法，并提供了不同短周期地震仪与数字化地震仪并行的藕合方式和标定计算公式。     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.     

当前我国地震预报面临的主要科学问题及其建议

论述了我国目前在长期、中期和短临预报中所面临的主要科学问题，提出了从哪些方面进行突破的建议。     

乌鲁木齐区域数字遥测台网各子台背景噪声分析

选取乌鲁木齐区域数字遥测台网中 1 1个子台的背景噪声数字记录 ,计算并分析其背景噪声地动速度均方根值 RMS、有效测量动态范围以及噪声功率谱 ,最后确定出各台址背景噪声相对集中的频段     

不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

Habitat, occurrence and conservation of Saharo-Arabian-Turanian element Forsskaolea tenacissima L. in the Iberian Peninsula

The aim of this study is to assess the Iberian populations of Forsskaolea tenacissima L. according to its biogeographical interest, habitat, geographical range and conservation status. Results point out that they are restricted to gravel wadis of Tabernas Desert (SE Spain), are scarcely included in protected areas and represent historically isolated populations with relict behaviour. We also describe a new association, Senecioni-Forsskaoleetum tenacissimae. Conservation status of species is cause for concern and two conservation actions must be carried out. Firstly, protected areas should house Forsskaolea populations and secondly, phytosociological characterization of a community allows inventorying its habitat and directing conservation efforts to community level.