Probabilistic Assessment of Temperature in the Euganean Geothermal Area (Veneto Region, NE Italy)

In the geothermal Euganean area (Veneto region, NE Italy) water temperatures range from 60 to 86°C. The aquifer considered is rocky and the production wells in this study have a depth ranging from 300 to 500 m. For exploitation purposes, it is important to identify zones with a high probability that the temperature is more than 80°C and zones with a high probability that the temperature is less than 70°C. First, variographic analysis was conducted from 186 temperature data of thermal ground waters. This analysis gave results that are consistent with the main regional tectonic structure, the NW-SE trending Schio-Vicenza fault system. Then indicator variograms of the second, fifth, and eighth decile were compared to identify the spatial continuity at different thresholds. The unacceptability of a multigaussian hypothesis of the random function and the necessity to know the cumulative distribution function in any location, suggested the use of a nonparametric geostatistical procedure such as indicator kriging. Thus, indicator variograms at the cutoffs of 65, 70, 73, 75, 78, 80, 82, and 84°C were analyzed, fitted, and used during the indicator kriging procedure. Finally, probability maps were derived from postprocessing indicator kriging results. These maps identified scarcely exploited areas with a high probability of the temperature being higher than 80°C, between 70 and 80°C and areas with high probability of the temperature being below 70°C.     

局部重磁场源全方位成像理论概要(续)

作者近年来首创了"复杂条件下局部重磁场源全方位成像"理论体系。在本文中,概要阐述该理论体系中下延有限二度体复重磁场级数正演通式、复场模值全方位延拓和全方位反演等。     

ANALYSIS ON WAVELET POWER SPECTRUM OF WARM AND COLD EVENTS IN THE NI?O REGIONS

We statistically analyze the tropical typhoon forming in the South China Sea and use TC (Tropical Cyclone) for short in the following) by typhoon yearbook. The typhoon quantity is very different in different months and years. TC appears in all months except March, and the most TC quantity in a year is 11, the least is 1 and 6.2 on average. The most TC quantity in a month is 5 and the least is 0. TC lands most in August and no TC lands on Chinese continent from December to the following April. The primary landing area is between Shantou and Hainan Island. The sustaining period of TC is usually between 4 days to 7days, and the longest is 19 days. Only 15% of the TC forming in the South China Sea can intensify to typhoon, and they all form in the ocean area deeper than 150m. The South China Sea is the ocean area over which the TC occurs frequently.     

The role and value of local knowledge in Jamaican agriculture: adaptation and change in small-scale farming

Local knowledge has played an active role in the lives of rural communities in virtually every part of the world. In Jamaica, traditional cropping systems based on local informal knowledge have been practiced since the days of slavery and play a vital role in meeting food security. Yet, some negative attitudes remain about the legitimacy and relevance of small-scale farmers' local and traditional knowledge. This paper discusses some conceptual and empirical issues related to the application of local knowledge among small-scale food farmers in central Jamaica. The paper argues that contextually speaking, local and traditional knowledge is valuable, adaptable and necessary in coping with risk and uncertainty in a changing world, while cautioning against a misguided notion of traditional knowledge as a panacea to all the ills of local agriculture.     

Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator

Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

光电式互感器的研究和发展及其在电力系统中的应用

在电力系统中，光学传感器较之传统的电气传感器具有本质上的优越性。叙述了近年来电流互感器（OCT）、光学电压互感器（OVT）在实际电力系统中的应用方面的研究及发展，详细总结了从110kV三相OCT到500k V组合式光学电流电压测量系统（OMU）等实际项目的研究工作。对光学电流互感器的一些新型设计进行了探讨，并展望了应用于电站的基于光纤传感、光纤监控、光纤通信及光纤继电保护的光纤局域网。     

环境氟与人体健康——致世界卫生组织的一封公开信

总结了环境中的氟与人体健康的关系。呼吁人们不可忽视微量元素氟对人体的生理功能，摄入不足轻则臻龋齿，重则导臻大骨节病的发生；在全面认识氟的基础上，发现了卤素和人体健康有氟主骨，氯主心，溴主神和碘主智的重要关系。同时提出“元素丰欠皆致病”和“多祛少补乃原则”的地方病发病机制和治疗原则；地方病的防治提倡食疗和饮疗，最后建议地方病以摄入的元素多少来命名，因为它既能反映致病原因，又明确了治疗方法，医患皆知。     

2000年我国天气气候特点

2000年我国主要天气气候特点为：全国大部地区降水偏少或接近常年，出现全国性干旱，特别是北方地区春夏季遭遇多年来罕见的特大干旱，汛期未发生大范围的暴雨洪涝灾害，秋季黄淮以南地区出现持续连阴雨天气，全国大部分气温接近常年成偏高，持续暖冬态势发生转折，夏季高温酷热，春季北方扬沙和沙尘暴天气异常频繁，登陆我国台风个数偏少，风雹等强对流天气明显偏少。     

局地自适应多级模式降水预报

近年来，我国对西北太平洋上的热带气旋的实时业务定位精度有了很大的提高，平均定位误差均在20－30km，美国在同一海区的定位误差也在这一精度水平上。值得注意的是，计算业务定位误差的标准是各国确定的所谓“最佳位置”，然而，该“最佳位置”并不一定能代表实况。事实上，我国和美国的“最佳位置”是有差别的，平均达54．4km，且存在明显的年际变化和地理分布特征。这意味着，我们可能过小地估计了业务定位误差。