21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考

文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略：1．建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系；2．优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程，实施地质灾害风险管理；3．建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系；4．城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合；5．加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设；6．针对地质灾害区域分布规律，采取分区减灾对策；7．加大地质灾害防治投入力度。     

河南红旗渠沿线地质灾害易发性评价

红旗渠是20世纪60年代河南省林州市人民在国家极其困难时期依靠自力更生、艰苦奋斗，在太行山腰上修建的引漳入林水利工程。建成后灌溉着林州3．6万hm^2农田，解决了98万人口和37万头牲畜的吃水问题，发挥着巨大的经济效益。然而，红旗渠沿线地质条件极为复杂，地质灾害频繁发生，自红旗渠建成运行以来，几乎每年都有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害发生。1960～2000年，红旗渠总干渠因地质灾害造成的决口事件有19次。1996年8月3～4日，由于连降暴雨，引发崩塌、滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害，使总干渠沿线154处渠道淤塞，淤积达94402m^3，给工农业生产和人民生命财产造成巨大损失，直接经济损失达1．17亿元，灾后修复费用达1100万余元。多年来每年用于地质灾害后修复的费用达数百万元。如何有效地防治红旗渠沿线地质灾害，确保顺畅其流，千秋永固，是值得研究的一项重要课题。据调查，共发现各类地质灾害94处，其中危岩体44处，崩塌24处，滑坡12处，泥石流14处。作者基于地质灾害现状，采用定性分析结合定量分析方法，对各类地质灾害进行评价，将红旗渠沿线地质灾害易发性划分为4个区，即高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区，为红旗渠沿线地质灾害防治规划提供依据。     

Study of charge structure and radiation characteristic of intracloud discharge in thunderstorms of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The comprehensive observations on lightning discharges were conducted in Naqu area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in summer of 2002. The electric structures of thunderstorms and the characteristics of lightning discharges at initial stage were analyzed by using the observation data. The results show that most of intracloud (IC) lightning flashes were polarities inverted in thunderstorms with tripole electric charge structure and occurred between negative charge region located in the middle of the thunderstorm and positive charge region located at the bottom of the thunderstorm. The radiation characteristics of discharge processes in cloud with longer lasting time involved in Cloud-to-Ground (CG) lightning flashes were similar to that of IC discharges.A lot of radiation pulses were produced in these discharge processes. Because the IC discharges took place at the bottom of thundercloud and were near the ground, they may produce more serious damage to equipment on the ground therefore should not be neglected in lightning protection.     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.     

雷电监测预警系统的原理及应用

本文讨论了有关雷电的基本知识，列举了目前存在的各种雷电定位方法，分析了雷电定位的几个过程。对近期引进VAISALA公司的SAFIR3000型雷电监测预警系统采用的探测原理做了分析，并总结了这套探测系统采用的VHF干涉测量原理特点及不足之处。     

一次龙卷过程的多普勒天气雷达和闪电定位资料分析

利用WSR-98D多普勒天气雷达和闪电定位资料分析了2003年7月8日发生在安徽省无为县境内的一次龙卷过程。此次龙卷产生于低空急流左侧，动力、热力条件均为较有利的大尺度环境，多普勒雷达回波分析发现，龙卷起源于中高层向低层发展的中-γ尺度气旋中。闪电定位资料分析表明，龙卷发生前10min闪电活动开始频繁。龙卷出现后负地闪明显加大，且龙卷闪电存在于雷暴的发展后期、成熟和消亡阶段。此次龙卷的一些基本特征与通常结论有所不同，(1)雷达反射率因子小于通常结论；(2)龙卷风暴发展高度不是很高，回波顶高仅6～9km，类似于普通雷暴；(3)闪电活动中以负地闪为主，正地闪较少，并未出现正地闪一度占主导地位的现象。     

基于电场理论的主动防雷系统的初步设想

针对目前使用的传统雷电防护技术存在的问题，通过分析雷电原理和雷电触发机制，利用电场理论来设计一套主动防雷系统，即实现保护对象所在空间大气处于被激放电状态，并利用闪电将大气激活为自激放电状态。介绍了主动防雷系统的原理，并对其核心的“引而不发”理论进行阐述，在此基础上设计出主动防雷系统的模型。具体说明了构成主动防雷系统的阻塞系统、疏导系统和电源系统的构造和特征以及它们之间的关系。计算得到主动防雷系统所需的电场强度E=0．69kV／m。最后指出了存在问题与发展方向，在结论中总结了主动防雷系统的特点及其关键。     

浅谈计算机信息系统的雷电防护

通过对计算机信息系统的检测及其避雷装置的安装实践,总结了一些操作要领和技巧,并结合工作中的体会对新的防雷技术进行了探讨。     

洪水保险债券的运作机制与发展思路

由于传统(再)保险,难以将洪灾风险进行有效的分散,因此,有必要寻求有效的金融工具将洪灾风险向资本市场转移。在建立洪水保险债券的概念框架基础上,阐述了与普通债券及传统再保险的区别。从经济学和精算学的角度对洪水保险债券进行分析,揭示了洪水保险债券定价机制。通过研究洪水保险债券的运作模式,分析了我国洪水保险债券的发行条件与发展思路,指出洪水保险债券为我国防洪减灾提供了可资借鉴的崭新方法与工具。