Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

中国南方离子吸附型稀土矿床成矿类型及其母岩控矿因素探讨

传统认为中国南方的离子吸附型稀土矿床可划分为以“足洞式”为代表的重稀土型和以“河岭式”(或“花山式”)为代表的轻稀土型两种矿化类型。然而，近年来发现的许多矿床(如清溪、寨背和馒头山等)的赋矿风化壳中出现了轻稀土矿与重稀土矿并存现象，表现出特殊的“上轻下重”双层矿体结构。这指示了除重稀土型和轻稀土型之外，还存在着轻重稀土共生型的过渡类型。本研究通过对三种不同成矿类型的若干典型矿床系统对比，指出成矿类型的多样性与母岩性质密切相关，尤其是母岩的稀土元素地球化学和稀土载体矿物属性是制约成矿类型变化的关键因素。统计数据表明，从重稀土型→轻重稀土共生型→轻稀土型，成矿母岩的全岩稀土总量变化不大(ΣREY: 200×10-6~450×10-6→200×10-6~500×10-6→200×10-6~800×10-6)，但轻重稀土配分值出现较显著的区间性差异(ΣLREE/ΣHREY: 02~1→1~5→2~10)。与之同时，母岩中能为离子相稀土提供物源且具有重稀土配分属性的稀土副矿物类型和数量明显减少，这与全岩稀土元素地球化学特征中重稀土分量占比的降低趋势也互相匹配。该结果指示，以往认为重稀土配分母岩形成重稀土矿床、轻稀土配分母岩形成轻稀土矿床的传统观点需要外延，即一部分具有低度轻稀土配分属性(1＜ΣLREE/ΣHREY＜5)且含有丰富易风化稀土副矿物的母岩还可能形成轻重稀土共生型矿床，该认识可为今后离子吸附型稀土矿床勘查工作提供新的找矿依据。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

A high resolution relative paleointensity record from the Gerlache-Boyd paleo-ice stream region, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.     

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.     

小岩头滑坡稳定性分析

小岩头滑坡位于贵州省威宁县二(连浩特)河(口)高速公路K255 010~K255 240里程右侧,属一个大型古滑坡,发育于二叠系上统峨嵋山组玄武岩(P2β)地层中。在高速公路施工中对路堑进行深挖削坡,可能导致古滑坡中部、线路右侧斜坡失稳破坏,发生滑坡。因此,滑坡稳定性评价是重大工程地质问题之一。根据大量勘察试验资料,系统地揭示了滑坡的特征,分析了滑坡形成的控制因素、成因和形成机制,建立了滑坡体稳定性计算模型,利用反演计算法进行稳定性分析与评价,认为两滑体均处于滑动失稳状态。建议对滑坡体进行处理,采用排水、支挡、减压等措施进行整治。     

利用激光强度信息分类激光扫描测高数据

三维机载激光扫描测高数据中不仅含有每个激光脚点的位置和高程信息，而且越来越多的系统同时能提供激光脚点回波信号的强度信息。不同反射面介质对激光信号的反射特性不一样．用实测的数据对激光回波信号的强度信息进行统计标定，并基于标定结果．实现了联合激光强度信息和高程信息进行分类的算法．获得了较为满意的结果。     

春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系

利用1948-2002年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压资料以及中国160站的降水和气温资料，分析了春季北方气旋活动频数和强度的时空变化特征，以及两者与中国降水和气温的相关关系。结果表明：春季北方气旋活动频繁，存在明显的两个高值中心，分别位于蒙古国的中部和我国东北北部地区。春季北方气旋活动频数和强度均存在明显的年际和年代际变化。伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变，20世纪70年代中后期无论是频数还是强度均出现了显著的突变。春季北方气旋活动频数主要对我国北方地区的降水和气温有一定影响，活动频数多(少)年，我国华北大部、新疆北部降水偏少(多)；北疆地区气温回升(下降)，甘、宁、陕、内部分地区偏冷(暖)。80-90年代春季北方气旋活动频数的偏少，强度的减弱，导致我国北方地区沙尘暴次数比70年代减少.