倒春寒的划分和预报服务探讨

本文利用预报区域1960～1995年春季逐日气象资料,分析得到了倒春寒天气的客观划分标准、气候特点、主要影响系统及其形势特征。采用较新特色的折扣回归模型,建立了三、四月份各旬倒春寒的集成预报方程;利用短期预报资料,研制出若干预报判据和消空指标,建立了短期预报回归方程,并编制出具有一定特色的预报服务系统。经1997年实际应用,倒春寒天气的预报准确率在经验预报的基础上提高20％左右。     

Electric field effects on ionospheric and thermospheric parameters above the EISCAT station for summer conditions

Numerical calculations of the thermospheric and ionospheric parameters above EISCAT are presented for quiet geomagnetic conditions in summer. The Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) was used. The numerical results were obtained both with a self-consistent calculation of the electric fields of magnetospheric and dynamo-action origin and with the magnetospheric electric fields only. It was found that the dynamo-electric field has some effect on the ionospheric convection pattern during quiet geomagnetic conditions. It has a marked effect mainly on the zonal neutral wind component above EISCAT (±20m/s at 140 km altitude). We have studied the effects of various field-aligned current (FAC) distributions on thermosphere/ionosphere parameters and we show that a qualitative agreement can be obtained with region-I and -II FAC zones at 75° and 65° geomagnetic latitude, respectively. The maximum FAC intensities have been assumed at 03–21 MLT for both regions with peak values of 2.5 × 10^–7 Am^–2 (region I) and 1.25 × 10^–7 A m^–2 (region II). These results are in agreement with statistical potential distribution and FAC models constructed by use of EISCAT data. The lack of decreased electron density in the night-time sector as observed by the EISCAT radar was found to be due to the spatial distribution of ionospheric convection resulting from electric fields of magnetospheric origin.     

The morphology of oxygen greenline dayglow emission

In this study, the morphology of the oxygen greenline dayglow emission is presented. The volume emission rate profiles are obtained by using Solomons glow model. The glow model is updated in terms of recent cross sections, reaction rate coefficients and quantum yield of greenline emission. Throughout most of the thermosphere the modelled and observed emission rates are in reasonably good agreement. In the region between 98 and 120 km, the modelled emission rates are substantially higher (about a factor of 1.7) than the observed emission rates. This discrepancy is discussed in terms of scaling of solar fluxes which accounts the variation of solar activity for the day on which calculations are made. The modelled morphology of greenline emission is compared with those cases where WINDII data is available. The modelled and observed morphology is in reasonably good agreement at most of the latitudes above 120 km. In the mesosphere the qualitative nature of morphology is very similar to those of WINDII observation except the modelled emission rates are about a factor of 1.7 higher than the observed emission rates.     

The thermospheric effects of a rapid polar cap expansion

In a previous publication we used results from a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere model to illustrate a new mechanism for the formation of a large-scale patch of ionisation arising from a rapid polar cap expansion. Here we describe the thermospheric response to that polar cap expansion, and to the ionospheric structure produced. The response is dominated by the energy and momentum input at the dayside throat during the expansion phase itself. These inputs give rise to a large-scale travelling atmospheric disturbance (TAD) that propagates both antisunward across the polar cap and equatorward at speeds much greater than both the ion drifts and the neutral winds. We concentrate only on the initially poleward travelling disturbance. The disturbance is manifested in the neutral temperature and wind fields, the height of the pressure level surfaces and in the neutral density at fixed heights. The thermospheric effects caused by the ionospheric structure produced during the expansion are hard to discern due to the dominating effects of the TAD.     

扬子地台西缘海相火山岩建造及其控矿特征

扬子地台西缘海相火山岩主要分布在海域裂陷构造,碰撞诱发的裂谷盆地－撞击槽及晋宁－澄江期增生的各类地体中,并以中元古代、二叠－三叠纪最为发育。划分了均一玄武岩组合、玄武岩－安山岩－英安岩－流纹岩组合、玄武岩－流纹岩双峰组合、玄武岩－曲安岩－流纹岩－粗面岩组合、细碧角斑岩组合等５种火山岩构造－岩石类型。     

滩槽流量分别演算法进行汾河下游河段洪水预报

汾河下游柴庄以下河段由于受人为和处在然等多种因素影响,河道发生持续淤积,过水能力大幅度降低,使河道行洪特点发生很大变化,正常洪水预报方法失效。     

考虑回水顶托影响的水位预报研究

将有回水顶托影响的河段视为多输入-单输出系统,把水位过程视为时间序列,用时间序列分析最优控制理论,建立了可考虑回水顶托影响的水位过程预报模型。提出了在棱柱形河道情况下,以时段水位涨差作变量时,模型中各参数应满足的物理性约束条件;较好地解决了长江荆江河段中受回水顶托影响的石首站的水位过程预报问题,为水位过程预报提供了一条不同于水文学途径和水力学途径的建模途径。     

Meso-Cenozioc Tectonic Attribute of Southern China and Folding of the Nanhua (South Cathay) Orogenic Belt

The Meso-Cenozoic tectonic attribute of southern China is a continental tridirectional orogenic belt formed by subsynchronous interaction among the Tethys, Northwest Pacific and Kunlun-Qinling tectonic domains. It was created by superimposition of repeated orogenies since the Late Permian. The Indosinian folds therein are gentle and localized.     

鄂西桐梓组一段碳酸盐台洼重力流沉积特征及其研究意义

鄂西秭归、长阳、巴东等地奥陶系桐梓组一段中碳酸盐台洼重力流沉积主要有４种类型：塌积角砾岩、碎屑流砾屑灰岩、颗粒流含砾砂屑灰岩、近源浊积灰岩。沉积特征和时空分布情况表明它们发生在两河口期早期海侵背景下（ＴＳＴ）。最初的岩崩塌积沉积受控于被动大陆边缘板内应力作用产生的构造事件,后来的重力流沉积旋回明显受渐进式海侵海平面升降波动的影响。台洼重力流沉积提供了早奥陶世华南被动大陆边缘向前陆盆地演变之前奏幕式事件在碳酸盐台地内的地层记录。讨论鄂西乃至上扬子区奥陶纪两河口期碳酸盐台洼重力流沉积的背景、成因、受控因素及研究意义。