Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测

利用我国1961-2003年夏季（6—8月）高温资料，建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列，探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理，东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型，预测夏季月高温出现日数，通过42a高温资料预报检验，有较好的预测效果，值得在业务中应用。     

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。     

西藏甲马铜多金属矿床远景预测

近年研究表明，作为西藏境内少数几个大型矿床之一的甲马铜多金属矿床先后经历了燕山晚期海底喷流积积成矿作用和喜马拉雅期斑岩型成矿作用，相应形成矿区层状主矿休和斑岩型矿体。矿区地质特征、主成矿元素空间分布规律分析后认为：矿区东、西段各存在一个喷流中心，与之相关的层状矿体及深部脉状、网脉状矿体是今后找矿的重点靶区；喜马拉雅期斑岩成矿作用在区域及矿区内均有显示，具有不可忽视的成矿潜力。     

MAPGIS管网开发平台的设计

设计了一个通用的管线信息系统开发平台。该开发平台构筑于大型GIS基础软件MAPGIS之上，具有完备的数据模型，强大的数据包容能力。采用多层次体系结构，包含网络数据管理与网络分析、管网工作区管理、专业管网工作区管理、管网工程管理、管网实用服务工具包、管网管理类库和控件库等多个模块。该开发平台同时支持API和组件接口，二次开发便利灵活，可以较好地满足管网应用系统的。在该平台基础上已开发出多个成功的管网信息系统，证明它具有广泛的应用前景。     

Carbonate platform evolution: from a bioconstructed platform margin to a sand-shoal system (Devonian, Guilin, South China)

ABSTRACT The depositional organization and architecture of the middle–late Devonian Yangdi rimmed carbonate platform margin in the Guilin area of South China were related to oblique, extensional faulting in a strike‐slip setting. The platform margin shows two main stages of construction in the late Givetian to Frasnian, with a bioconstructed margin evolving into a sand‐shoal system. In the late Givetian, the platform margin was rimmed with microbial buildups composed mainly of cyanobacterial colonies (mostly Renalcis and Epiphyton). These grew upwards and produced an aggradational (locally slightly retrogradational) architecture with steep foreslope clinoforms. Three depositional sequences (S3–S5) are recognized in the upper Givetian strata, which are dominated by extensive microbialites. Metre‐scale depositional cyclicity occurs in most facies associations, except in the platform‐margin buildups and upper foreslope facies. In the latest Givetian (at the top of sequence S5), relative platform uplift (± subaerial exposure) and associated rapid basin subsidence (probably a block‐tilting effect) caused large‐scale platform collapse and slope erosion to give local scalloped embayments along the platform margin and the synchronous demise of microbial buildups. Subsequently, sand shoals and banks composed of ooids and peloids and, a little later, stromatoporoid buildups on the palaeohighs, developed along the platform margin, from which abundant loose sediment was transported downslope to form gravity‐flow deposits. Another strong tectonic episode caused further platform collapse in the early Frasnian (at the top of sequence S6), leading to large‐scale breccia release and the death of the stromatoporoid buildups. Siliceous facies (banded cherts and siliceous shales) were then deposited extensively in the basin centre as a result of the influx of hydrothermal fluids. The platform‐margin sand‐shoal/bank system, possibly with gullies on the slope, persisted into the latest Frasnian until the restoration of microbial buildups. Four sequences (S6–S9), characterized by abundant sand‐shoal deposits on the margin and gravity‐flow and hemipelagic deposits on the slope, are distinguished in the Frasnian strata. Smaller‐scale depositional cyclicity is evident in all facies associations across the platform–slope–basin transect. The distinctive depositional architecture and evolution of this Yangdi Platform are interpreted as having been controlled mainly by regional tectonics with contributions from eustasy, environmental factors, oceanographic setting, biotic and sedimentary fabrics.     

数字遥测地震台网地震速报中文平台

叙述了数字遥测地震台网地震速报中平台程序基本流程和使用特点，程序采用Vi编程方法实现以二维坐标点阵结构显示汉字，与台网的交互软件（EDSP-IAS）中的WaveView程序自动链接运行，该闰台界面操作方便直观，易于定位地震参数，自动速报上网和自动寻呼。