Climate (in)justice,vulnerability and livelihoods in the Caribbean: The case of the indigenous Caribs in northeastern St. Vincent

This paper examines climate justice from the perspective of three remote indigenous Carib communities located in northeastern St. Vincent, amidst their vulnerability to climatic hazards. The study contributes to the growing body of literature that explores the impacts climate-induced changes are having on Indigenous peoples through its explicit focus on this distinctive social group. The paper entails a detail case study of the particular ways the recent onset of two consecutive extreme weather events have impacted livelihood activities in these traditional farming villages. Primary data were collected in the aftermath of a severe drought that was followed by Hurricane Tomas in 2010, using a mixed method approach involving a questionnaire survey of 311 households, 70 unstructured interviews and 2 focus group sessions held in each of the three communities. The combined impact of these extreme weather events not only brought to light how exposed and sensitive these communities are to climatic hazards, but also illustrated some of the underlying issues driving vulnerability at the local scale that must be dealt with if climate justice is to be achieved. We argue that the factors driving vulnerability within these communities are partly a function of centuries of economic neglect and political marginalization and are also strongly related to the communities’ characteristically lower-socio economic status, geographic location, heavy reliance on land-based resources, coupled with a range of cognitive barriers that affect residents’ capacity to adapt to a changing and variable regional climate regime.     

西藏冰湖溃决灾害事件极端气候特征

以1960年以来西藏境内已有记载的27次冰湖溃决灾害事件作为研究对象,基于西藏国家气象站点长时间序列（有效记录至今）日气温和日降雨数据,计算得到16个极端气温指数和6个极端降雨指数。通过主成分变换,提取综合极端气温指数和综合极端降雨指数,并进行历史（10年内对比）极端气候特征对比,获得冰湖溃决灾害发生当年及当月极端气候状态,结果表明西藏冰湖溃决灾害发生期（当年及当月）极端气候特征显著,反映极端气候状态对于激发西藏冰湖溃决灾害发生的重要贡献,具体表现为：(1) 67%（18次）的冰湖溃决事件发生当年综合极端气温指数和综合极端降雨指数均大于前期50%年份的综合极端气候指数,其中,13次灾害发生当年极端气候异常水平超过前期70%年份;(2)已有灾害暴发月份记载的25次冰湖溃决事件中,19次冰湖溃决事件发生当月极端气候指数异常偏高,11次冰湖溃决事件发生当月极端气温和极端降水均大于75%往年同期综合极端气候指数;(3)部分灾害事件如扎日错（1981年6月)、龙纠错溃决（2000年8月）等,灾害发生当年极端气温状态低于往年,而暴发当月综合极端气温指数和综合极端降雨指数均大于历史同期水平,表现为加剧状态;(4)所有冰湖溃决灾害发生当月的综合极端气温指数均高于往年同期指数,表明短历时极端气温事件对高原冰湖溃决灾害形成具有重要影响。     

中国北方更新世极端冷期冬季风的快速变化

对黄土高原中部洛川和西峰黄土堆积的“上、下粉砂层”进行了间隔 5～ 6 cm的详细采样 ,测量了 80 0多个样品的粒度分布和磁化率值 ,根据沉积速率模式建立了一个相对独立的、较精确的时间标尺。结果表明 ,中国北方更新世极端冷期的黄土堆积记录了东亚冬季风频繁的和较大幅度的千年尺度变化。冬季风加强事件一般持续约1.8～ 2 .4ka。亚轨道时间尺度冬季风变化的可能原因是 ,在极端冷期赤道和极地气温差增大 ,纬向西风环流加强引起的大气环流和蒙古高亚不稳定 ,从而引起东亚冬季风千年尺度变化。在极端冷期降雨量和平均温度低于某个阈值的时候 ,虽然夏季风强度存在变化 ,但不足以影响磁铁矿和磁赤铁矿的形成 ,所以那时磁化率的变化不能很好地记录夏季风气候变化。     

Stormy geomorphology: an introduction to the Special Issue

The degree to which the climate change signal can be seen in the increasing frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events forms a key part of the global environmental change agenda. Geomorphology engages with this debate through extending the instrumental record with palaeogeomorphological research; studying resilience and recovery of geomorphic systems under extreme disturbance; documenting the mediation by catchment organisation of transport processes during extreme events; applying new monitoring methods to better understand process‐response systems; and illustrating how process, experimental and modelling insights can be used to define the buffering of geomorphic systems and human assets from the effects of extremes, providing practical outcomes for practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Techniques for assessing water infrastructure for nonstationary extreme events: a review

Statistical and physically-based methods have been used for designing and assessing water infrastructure such as spillways and stormwater drainage systems. Traditional approaches assume that hydrological processes evolve in an environment where the hydrological cycle is stationary over time. However, in recent years, it has become increasingly evident that in many areas of the world the foregoing assumption may no longer apply, due to the effect of anthropogenic and climatic induced stressors that cause nonstationary conditions. This has attracted the attention of national and international agencies, research institutions, academia, and practicing water specialists, which has led to developing new techniques that may be useful in those cases where there is good evidence and attribution of nonstationarity. We review the various techniques proposed in the field and point out some of the challenges ahead in future developments and applications. Our review emphasizes hydrological design to protect against extreme events such as floods and low flows.     

Extreme precipitation and long-term precipitation changes in a Central European sedge-grass marsh in the context of flood occurrence

This study offers a detailed analysis of the extreme precipitation and long-term precipitation changes in a sedge-grass marsh in the “Wet Meadows” area in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) in the context of flood occurrence. Namely, trends in annual maxima of daily precipitation and trends in the occurrence and amount of rainfall are investigated. The analysis is based on daily measurements of precipitation from 1977 to 2015. We found out that extreme precipitation has become significantly more frequent in recent years, and there are also other significant changes in the rainfall distribution. Possible negative effects on the wetland can be linked to a change of carbon exchange between the ecosystem and the atmosphere and a change of biodiversity. Awareness of these changes is necessary for possible positive human intervention when a desirable wetland functioning is threatened.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.     

青藏高原三江源地区近60 a气候与极端气候变化特征分析

青藏高原三江源地区正在面临着以"变暖变湿"为主的气候变化,是气候变化的显著区与敏感区。基于中国气象局位于三江源地区20个地面台站的气温、降水数据以及HadCRUT4（Climatic Research Unit land-surface air temperature-4 dataset and the Hadley Centre sea-surface temperature dataset,Hadley Centre,UK）气温、PREC（Precipitation Reconstruction,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,USA）降水资料,从气候要素空间格局、极端气候指标以及区域-全球平均多年变化对比等3个方面系统总结了三江源地区1961-2019年气候和极端气候变化的特征。结果显示,三江源区域在过去近60 a里平均增暖速率为0.37℃/（10 a）,是全球平均水平（0.16℃/（10 a））的2倍以上,同时大幅高于全球同纬度（0.19℃/（10 a））及中国区域（0.28℃/（10 a））。在全球变暖背景下,三江源地区大部分极端气候指标上升,其中以夜间最低气温的上升（0.55℃/（10 a））最为显著,且极端高温事件的出现频率上升,区域日温差减小、气温变化极端性增强。三江源近60 a温湿气候态的空间格局为沿西北-东南方向的正温湿梯度,其变化趋势存在自西向东速率上升的暖湿化空间分异特征。本文的研究结论进一步揭示了三江源地区近60 a气候变化与极端气候的时空格局,为三江源地区气候系统和生态系统的脆弱性研究以及未来气候变化预估提供了科学依据,同时也为气候变化敏感的高寒地区对全球变暖的响应研究提供了对比案例。     

Potential impacts of land-use on climate variability and extremes

This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) climate model 54-yr (1949-2002) integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts ...     

Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events

Present work compares impacts of El Niño Modoki and El Niño on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979–2005. El Niño Modoki (El Niño) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple “boomerangs” of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those “boomerangs” reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Niño Modoki owing to displacement of the wet “boomerang” arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer “boomerang” arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Niño Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Niño. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Niño Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Niño. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Niño Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Niño, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena.