一种基于不同表面强迫方式对CFSR表面通量资料进行修正的方法探讨

海表面温度(SST)的变化是海气相互作用的重要体现,SST的准确模拟也是海洋内部温度模拟的基础。基于区域海洋模式,本文通过对比分析两种强迫方式对SST的模拟效果,诊断了各辐射场对SST模拟效果的贡献,基于EOF分析法提出了一种针对CFSR表面大气强迫辐射数据的修正方案,并获取一套高频辐射场修正数据。数值对比试验结果显示,利用COARE 3.0公式计算所得表面强迫的方式模拟的SST结果更好,其均方根误差比直接强迫方式降低约39%;潜热辐射差异是两种强迫方式对SST模拟效果差异的主要原因,感热辐射差异次之,同时对两者进行修正可以显著改进SST的模拟效果;而长波辐射的修正则对冬季的SST模拟效果改善比较明显,但贡献仍弱于潜热辐射。相对于海洋模式而言,准确可靠的大气强迫数据的选择要优于强迫方式的选择。     

南海东部中尺度涡生成机制

利用高度计海面高度异常数据和非线性1½层约化重力模式研究了南海东部中尺度涡的生成机制。模式结果表明,南海内区风场是南海东部中尺度涡生成的主要驱动力,且南海内区高频风场能解释约54%的南海东部中尺度涡。从西太平洋传来的信号同样有十分重要的作用,由西太区域高频风场大致能解释南海东部40%的中尺度涡。风驱动的赤道附近的海面异常信号能经过锡布图通道和民都洛海峡传播到吕宋岛西海岸,其中有部分能量会以罗斯贝波的形式往西传播。这种信号在西传的过程中会发生不稳定,可能形成孤立的涡旋。     

Seasonal characteristics and forcing mechanisms of the surface Kuroshio branch intrusion into the South China Sea

Using observational data of Argos satellite-tracked drifters from 1988 to 2012, we analyzed seasonal characteristics of the surface Kuroshio branch(KB) intrusion into the South China Sea(SCS). The analysis results are as follows.The surface KB originates from the southern Balintang Channel(BLTC) and Babuyan Channel(BBYC). It begins in late September, reaches peak strength in November–December, and declines at the end of March. The mean speed of drifters along the KB path during their traverse of the Luzon Strait(LS) was 43% faster than during the two days before entering the LS for the flow originating from the southern BLTC, but there was a 24% increase in speed for the flow from the BBYC. The observations show that in winter, monthly-mean sea-level anomalies(SLAs) were positive southwest of Taiwan Island and extended to the northern LS. The SLAs were negative northwest of Luzon Island and extended to the southern LS, which acted like a pump, forcing a part of Kuroshio water westward into the SCS. The condition under which the KB forms was solved by a set of simplified motion equations. The results indicate that whether the KB can form depends upon the sea-level gradient at the central LS and region to the west, as well as the location, speed and direction of Kuroshio surface water when it enters the LS.     

系泊平台碰撞外部动力学的数值仿真研究

海洋平台通常在近岸系泊状态下作业,附近常有穿梭油轮和供应船的航行或停靠,因此系泊状态下的平台被碰撞的机会较多。平台一旦遭受碰撞,其结构将受到严重的破坏,因此对该状态平台动力特性的研究具有重要意义。本文结合碰撞的外部动力学和多体动力学理论,对软钢臂单点系泊条件下的海洋平台进行碰撞分析,对平台碰撞特性和系泊装置的运动响应进行了研究,分析了系泊平台的运行轨迹及能量耗散情况,为平台在系泊状态下的安全性提供依据。从分析结果可以看出:相比于无系泊状态的碰撞,系泊平台遭受侧向撞击时,平台的纵荡位移可降低30%~40%,但由于系泊系统的存在,横荡速度和位移显著增加,但整体偏转幅度降低(即艏尾位移减小);垂荡位移大幅度增加,速度波动较大,振动明显;横摇和艏摇的角速度和角度幅值降低,沿近似正弦曲线变化。     

Detection and Attribution of Changes in Thermal Discomfort over China during 1961-2014 and Future Projections

In this study, variation in the frequency of thermal discomfort days over China during the period of 1961-2014,including heat discomfort days(HDDs) and cold discomfort days(CDDs), and the influence of external forcings on it are discussed. HDDs are the conditions of overheating and overhumidity(represented by humidity index), and CDDs reflect the dangers from cold temperatures and winds(represented by wind chill index). Observations show significant increases(decreases) in the frequency of HDDs(CDDs) over China from 1961 to 2014, with clear regional distinctions. The historical ALL and greenhouse gas(GHG) simulations can sufficiently reproduce the spatial patterns of the observational trend in the frequency of both HDDs and CDDs over China. Further, the impacts of GHG and anthropogenic forcings on the HDDs(CDDs) are detectable over China, except for central and eastern China, based on the optimal fingerprinting method. GHG forcing is identified as a dominant factor for the observational changes in the frequency of HDDs over southern China;GHG and anthropogenic forcings have dominant effects on the variation in the frequency of CDDs over southwestern China. Although trends in the frequency of HDDs and CDDs in historical aerosol forcing simulations seems to be opposite to observations, an aerosol signal fails to be detected. Natural forcing contributes to the observational variation in the frequency of HDDs over northwestern China. In addition, the future projections of thermal discomfort days indicate that Chinese residents will face more threats of heat discomfort and fewer threats of cold discomfort in the future under global warming.     

基于亚马逊热带雨林的微波辐射计定标基准分析

亚马逊热带雨林作为稳定地物目标,适合进行星载微波辐射计的外定标。但近些年亚马逊热带雨林受人为破坏严重,植被覆盖面积减少,植被覆盖率降低,适合进行外定标的区域较往年发生了变化。文中依据亚马逊热带雨林近些年的归一化植被指数(NDVI)的变化情况,发现纬度位于3°S^2°N,经度位于74°W^69°W范围内的区域植被覆盖率高,适合进行星载微波辐射计外定标。文中以AMSR2 L1R亮温数据为基准,对比分析了该区域在2015-2017年3 a的亮温变化趋势,并以此作为该区域的定标基准。分析发现,该区域在非厄尔尼诺事件期间的亮温变化趋势呈现出特定的季节变化规律:在每年的6-7月,亮温值达到最低;在11-12月,亮温值达到最高,7-11月波动上升,12-6月波动下降。在厄尔尼诺事件发生期间会出现亮温值异常现象。     

Spatio-temporal structure of diatom assemblages in a temperate estuary. A STATICO analysis

This study examines the spatio-temporal structure of diatom assemblages in a temperate estuary (Ria de Aveiro, Western Portugal). Eighteen monthly surveys were conducted, from January 2002 to June 2003, at three sampling sites (at both high and low tide) along the estuarine salinity gradient. The relationship of diatom assemblages and environmental variables was analysed using the STATICO method, which has been designed for the simultaneous analysis of paired ecological tables. This method allowed examination of the stable part of the environment-diatom relationship, and also the variations of this relationship through time. The interstructure factor map showed that the relationship between the 11 environmental variables and the abundance of the 231 diatom species considered was strongest in the months May and September 2002 and January, February and May 2003. The stable part of the species–environment relationships mainly consisted of a combined phosphate, chlorophyll a and salinity gradient linked to a freshwater-marine species gradient. A more pronounced gradient was observed in January, February and May 2003. Diatom assemblages showed clear longitudinal patterns due to the presence of both marine and freshwater components. May and September 2002 had the least structured gradients with marine-estuarine species appearing in the freshwater side of the gradient. The most complete gradient in February 2003 could be considered, in terms of bio-ecological categories, as the most structured period of the year, with a combination of strong marine influence in the lower zone and freshwater influence in the upper. The best-structured gradients were during periods of a diatom bloom. Stable diatom assemblages (with a strong structure and a good fit between the diatoms and environment) are described and characterized. This study shows the efficiency of the STATICO analysis. The inclusion of space-time data analysis tools in ecological studies may therefore improve the knowledge of the dynamics of species–environmental assemblages.     

Past,present and future nutrient loads of the North Sea: Causes and consequences

Comprehensive, aggregate nutrient budgets were established for two compartments of the North Sea, the shallow coastal and deeper open regions, and for three different periods, representing pre-eutrophication (∼1950), eutrophication (∼1990) and contemporary (∼2000) phases. The aim was to quantify the major budget components, to identify their sources of variability, to specify the anthropogenic components, and to draw implications for past and future policy. For all three periods, open North Sea budgets were dominated (75%) by fluxes from and to the North-East Atlantic; sediment exchange was of secondary importance (18%). For the coastal North Sea, fluxes during the eutrophication period were dominated by sediment exchange (49% of all inputs), followed by exchange with the open sea (21%), and anthropogenic inputs (19%). Between 1950 and 1990, N-loading of coastal waters increased by a factor of 1.62 and P-loading by 1.45. These loads declined after 1990. Interannual variability in Atlantic inflow was found to correspond to a variability of 11% in nutrient load to the open North Sea. Area-specific external loads of both the open and coastal North Sea were below Vollenweider-type critical loads when expressed relative to depth and flushing. External area-specific load of the coastal North Sea has declined since 1990 from 1.8 to about 1.4 g P m⁻² y⁻¹ in 2000, which is close to the estimate of 1.3 for 1950. N-load declined less, leading to an increase in N/P ratio.     

Runoff- and monsoon-driven variability of fish production in East China Seas

To understand the confounding fishing effect and physical influence on fish production, catch time series in the East China Seas were analyzed. Principal component analysis partitioned 18 catch time series into interannual trends and variations. While the trends were attributed to growth in fishing effort, variations in catches were related to precipitation and monsoon wind speed. Correlations of catch variations with the physical variables suggest that land-based runoff and monsoon circulation of the diluted coastal water masses are the physical forces dominating catch variability and the influences are largely through the associated nutrient supply on primary production. Runoff inputs nutrients to the coastal ecosystem, while monsoons drive their distribution. Offshore diffusion of the coastal water masses by the summer monsoon increases distribution and efficiency of nutrients and has a positive effect on fish production. Southerly transport of coastal currents alongshore by the winter monsoon confines nutrient distribution and induces nutrient loss from the northern waters. This process reduces overall and northern production, but increases production to the south. A long-term variation in catches was identified, which corresponds to a trend in the local winter monsoon as well as large-scale atmospheric changes. Prediction of the catch variation by the local wind speed suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation determines the trend in the local winter monsoon, and the local winter monsoon that drives nutrient distribution should be directly responsible for the long-term variation of fish production in the East China Seas.     

Eddy activity in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands

Persistent northeasterly trade winds have a substantial impact on the oceanic circulation around the Hawaiian Islands. A regional ocean model is applied to understand the effect of different temporal and spatial resolutions of surface momentum forcing on the formation of strong mesoscale vortices and on the simulation of realistic levels of eddy kinetic energy. The higher spatial and temporal resolutions of wind forcing is shown to substantially affect the vorticity and deformation field in the immediate lee of the Hawaiian Islands and produce patterns of eddy kinetic energy similar to observations. This suggests that the surface eddy field in the region is mostly dominated by the local surface momentum forcing. Mesoscale cyclones and anticyclones formed in the lee of the Island of Hawaii are shown to have different propagation patterns. Mesoscale cyclones are more confined to the lee and are hence subject to interactions with the strong wind forcing and deformation field as well as smaller vortices formed in the wake of the other islands. Mesoscale anticyclones show not only a tendency to propagate further westward, but also to persist as coherent features as they propagate, even at relatively lower values of relative vorticity. The large strain rates that affect the propagation of the cyclones cause them to break down into filaments of positive vorticity. Rossby numbers of O(1) within vortices and filaments indicate that nonlinear interactions between the wind stress and the vertical component of the relative vorticity field is potentially important in producing large vertical velocities. Modeled cyclonic eddies show a good resemblance to observations both in terms of vertical structure and propagation patterns.