An Investigation of the Influence of Cyclonic Airstreams on Midwestern Snowfall

Although previous climatological studies have investigated the relationship between cyclone frequency and trajectory and regional weather, analyses of structural airflow features and precipitation have been confined to meteorological case studies. In the following paper, the influence of Colorado cyclone airstreams on Midwestern snowfall is investigated using isentropic streamline maps for five cold season months. Results indicate that Colorado cyclones account for a minor percentage of Midwestern snowfall events and amounts. When snowfall is induced by Colorado cyclogenesis, diffluence and instability in the cold sector portions of the cyclone are the dominant lifting mechanisms.     

Urban steeplands in the tropics: an environment of accelerated erosion

The developing countries at present have a high urban growth rate that is likely to continue for at least another quarter-century. In addition, many of these urban centres are located in the Neogene plate boundary zones and are subject to multiple earthquake and volcanic hazards. Slope failures and accelerated surface and channel erosion are particularly severe in cities near active plate margins, and in areas affected also by tropical cyclones. We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston (Jamaica). Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanization related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at a considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale, and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored, especially when located in an unstable physical environment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

2020年7月两次入海江淮气旋爆发性与非爆发性发展特征对比分析

利用高时空分辨率的欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)对全球气候的第五代大气再分析数据集(European Re-Analyses 5, ERA5),对比分析了2020年7月淮河上游地区的两次江淮气旋过程,并结合海洋—大气—波浪—泥沙耦合模式(Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system, COAWST)进行敏感性试验,探讨同一气候尺度背景下,高低频大气环流形势和海气耦合作用对江淮气旋的影响。结果表明,低空环流形势的高频变化和海表温度的升高对气旋的大风影响和强度发展有重要作用。低空环流形势中,存在“气旋—反气旋—气旋”环流天气尺度波列,易造成气旋大风叠加增强;海气交互界面的高海表温度加热作用导致的感热和潜热释放通过气旋北部弯曲锋面强烈的上升运动,为气旋发展提供能量,促进气旋入海后爆发性增强。     

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.     

Digital mapping of coastal boulders – high-resolution data acquisition to infer past and recent transport dynamics

Coastal boulder fields provide clues to long-term frequency-magnitude patterns of coastal flooding events and have the potential to play an important role in coastal hazard assessment. Mapping boulders in the field is time and labour-intensive, and work on intertidal reef platforms, as in the present study, is physically challenging. By addressing coastal scientists who are not specialists in remote sensing, this contribution reports on the possibilities and limitations of digital applications in boulder mapping in Eastern Samar, Philippines, where recent supertyphoons Haiyan and Hagupit induced high waves, coastal flooding and boulder transport. It is demonstrated how satellite imagery of sub-metre resolution (from Pléiades and WorldView-3 imagery) enables efficient analysis of transport vectors and distances of larger boulders, reflecting variation in latitudes of both typhoon tracks and approaching angles of typhoon-generated waves. During the investigated events, boulders with a-axes of up to 8 m were clearly identified to have been shifted for up to 32 m, mostly along the seaward margin of the boulder field. It is, however, hard to keep track of smaller boulders, and the length of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation is often impossible to map with sufficient accuracy. Orthophotographs and digital surface models created through the application of an unmanned aerial vehicle and the ‘Structure from Motion’ technique provide ultra-high-resolution data, and have the potential to not only improve the results of satellite image analysis, but also those from field mapping and may significantly reduce overall time in the field. Orthophotographs permit unequivocal mapping of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation, while precise values for c-axes can be derived from the respective digital surface models. Volume of boulders is best inferred from boulder-specific Structure from Motion-based three-dimensional models. Battery power, flight speed and altitude determine the limits of the area covered, while patches shielded by the boulders are difficult to resolve. For some tasks, field mapping remains mandatory and cannot be replaced by currently available remote sensing tools: for example, sampling for rock type, density and age dating, recording of lithological separation of boulders from the underlying geological unit and of geomorphic features on a millimetre to decimetre-scale, or documentation of fine-grained sediment transport in between the boulders in supratidal settings. In terms of future events, the digital products presented here will provide a valuable reference to track boulder transport on a centimetre to decimetre-scale and to better understand the hydrodynamics of extreme-wave events on a fringing reef coastline.     

A tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms^-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones‘ intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.     

MOTION AND INTENSITY AND IMPACT CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING THE LIAODONG PENINSULA

Conventional data and the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones (TC) data from 1971 to 2000 are used to study the climate and disaster features of TC affecting the Liaodong Peninsula. Results indicate that interannual change of TC activities is obvious. Different sources of TC have different impacts on the area of interest. Intensity and moving speed of TC vary substantially in the progress of northward movement. Besides, tracks and damage distributions of TC are quite different.     

Role of Vertical Resolution in Numerical Models Towards the Intensification,Structure and Track of Tropical Cyclones

The impact of vertical resolution on the evolution and movement of tropical cyclones was studied using NCAR MM5 model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km. Four numerical experiments were performed with different vertical resolutions, that is, with 23 vertical levels as control experiment, and 36 vertical levels with high resolution in the lower troposphere, 33 vertical levels with high resolution in the upper troposphere and 46 vertical levels with increased vertical resolution throughout the troposphere as relative to base experiment. The results indicate that increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere produces efficient intensification and better structure in terms of eye and eyewall. Increased vertical resolution at lower levels improves the prediction of vertical shear of horizontal wind. Experiments with high resolution in the lower troposphere and high resolution throughout the troposphere simulate better track up to 72 hours.     

Vulnerability Assessment at Village Level Due to Tides,Surges and Wave Setup

An assessment of cyclone risk and vulnerability at the village level has evolved, which is an important component of the information system for local level development action plans for preparedness and mitigation. Here, a case study for the Nellore district along the east coast of India is considered. Using maximum probable surges along the coast, total water level (TWL) due to the combined effect of surge, tide, and wind wave is computed for the most vulnerable coastal villages of the Nellore district due to any tropical cyclones. The computations suggest that the TWL along the Nellore coast varies from 2 m in the south to 4 m in the north.     

1949—2009年登陆和影响浙江的热带气旋分析

通过对1949—2009年61年间登陆和影响浙江的热带气旋的时空分布特征、主要影响路径等的分析,发现在7—9月份登陆浙江的热带气旋占登陆总数的92.5%,7—9月份影响浙江的热带气旋占影响总数的82%。影响浙江的热带气旋中登陆福建或在台湾海峡消失的热带气旋占的比重最多。虽然西北太平洋上热带气旋生成个数近年来大幅减少,但登陆浙江的强台风有明显增多的趋势。随着气候的变暖,海水温度的增高,热带气旋生成的时间提早,结束的时间偏迟。另外通过对热带气旋影响时各海岛、沿海和内陆站的大风、暴雨的分析,发现热带气旋影响期间容易引起大风天气的是大陈和嵊山站;容易引起暴雨天气的是温岭、临海和温州站。本文还分析了验潮站最大增水超过1m、2m、3m的时空分布特征。