Statistical Distributions of Hydraulic Conductivity from Reliability Analysis Data

This paper describes a first-order reliability-based analysis to identify the best-fit probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity. The analysis involved the use of existing hydraulic conductivity model developed from laboratory data and applied to lateritic soils, considering variations in soil parameters. Plots of reliability indices versus coefficients of variation were first made for hydraulic conductivity as well as for initial degree of saturation, plasticity index and clay content, considering three compactive efforts and log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity. The traditional two-parameter log-normal distribution was compared to four alternative distributions: normal, gamma, Gumbel (extreme value type I-EVT-I) and Weibull (extreme value type III-EVT-III). The analysis showed that the Weibull and normal are the best-fit probability distributions for the hydraulic conductivity based reliability data. Hydraulic conductivities predicted from reliability analysis were used to demonstrate the possibility of applying the results obtained in this research by practising engineers. Experimentally-determined hydraulic conductivities were shown to be in good agreement with predicted values.     

胶州湾水体重金属Hg的质量浓度和分布

根据1982-04、06、07和10月胶州湾水域调查资料,探讨和研究胶州湾重金属Hg的水质、平面分布、垂直分布、季节变化以及来源.结果表明：Hg在胶州湾水体中的质量浓度范围为：0.006～0.049 μg/L,在胶州湾整个水域,没有受到Hg的污染.在胶州湾西南沿岸水域,地表径流直接输送Hg入海,其质量浓度都非常低;在胶州湾东部沿岸水域,河流输送Hg入海,其质量浓度相对较高.Hg的表、底层水平分布证实了Hg的水域迁移过程和水域迁移机制.Hg质量浓度的垂直分布展示了胶州湾表层水质受到陆地地表径流输送Hg的影响,而胶州湾底层水质受到累计沉降的效应.通过胶州湾Hg的时空分布,发现控制Hg的排放得到实施,输入胶州湾水域的Hg大为减少.     

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall,river discharge and water quality

This review and commentary sets out the need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in observational data. We discuss the necessary components of a benchmark of dominant data uncertainties and the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for such guidance. We initiate the creation of a catalogue of accessible information on characteristics of data uncertainty for the key hydrological variables of rainfall, river discharge and water quality (suspended solids, phosphorus and nitrogen). This includes demonstration of how uncertainties can be quantified, summarizing current knowledge and the standard quantitative results available. In particular, synthesis of results from multiple studies allows conclusions to be drawn on factors which control the magnitude of data uncertainty and hence improves provision of prior guidance on those uncertainties. Rainfall uncertainties were found to be driven by spatial scale, whereas river discharge uncertainty was dominated by flow condition and gauging method. Water quality variables presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitudes exceeded 40%. We consider how data uncertainties impact on the interpretation of catchment dynamics, model regionalization and model evaluation. In closing the review, we make recommendations for future research priorities in quantifying data uncertainty and highlight the need for an improved ‘culture of engagement’ with observational uncertainties. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GIS的震害空间分布图集的设计与编制

快速地生成震害分布预测图,对提高减灾救灾能力有着重要意义。本研究采用3S（地理信息系统—G IS、全球定位系统—GPS和遥感—RS）技术,设计了一套全方位、多角度、综合自然环境、社会经济和人文要素的震害空间分布图集。本文将G IS强大的空间分析和数据管理能力与GPS、RS和地震科学相结合,从设计思想、图集内容、表现形式等方面介绍了专题图集的设计与编制。经过多次地震应急演练,该图集在制图规范化和出图速度方面有了较大的改善,能为应急指挥和辅助决策提供有力的技术保障。     

Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the copula function: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River

As an alternative to the commonly used univariate flood frequency analysis, copula frequency analysis can be used. In this study, 58 flood events at the Litija gauging station on the Sava River in Slovenia were analysed, selected based on annual maximum discharge values. Corresponding hydrograph volumes and durations were considered. Different bivariate copulas from three families were applied and compared using different statistical, graphical and upper tail dependence tests. The parameters of the copulas were estimated using the method of moments with the inversion of Kendall's tau. The Gumbel–Hougaard copula was selected as the most appropriate for the pair of peak discharge and hydrograph volume (Q‐V). The same copula was also selected for the pair hydrograph volume and duration (V‐D), and the Student‐t copula was selected for the pair of peak discharge and hydrograph duration (Q‐D). The differences among most of the applied copulas were not significant. Different primary, secondary and conditional return periods were calculated and compared, and some relationships among them were obtained. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dry spells assessment with reference to the maize crop in the Luvuvhu River catchment of South Africa

Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945–2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area.     

半参数p-范极大似然回归

应用核权函数,在观测为误差单峰、对称的情况下,得到了一元p-范分布的半参数模型的计算公式.详细推导了p已知时一元p-范分布极大似然方程的解算公式,将半参数回归模型应用到极大似然平差的参数估计理论中,得到了一个比较好的算法.最后,构造了两个模拟平差问题,说明了此方法的优越性.     

Development of Deltas in Some Danish Watercourses

Hasholt. Bent: Development of Deltas in Some Danish Watercourses. Geografisk Tidsskrift 84: 10–16. Copenhagen, January 1984.

Recurrent sedimentation has been observed in three watercourses in western Jutland where the slope of the water surface diminishes due to human intervention. The river bottom was surveyed by a scuba diver, the bedforms were described, and the grain-size distributions analysed. It is concluded that the sedimentation is due to the development of deltas.