溱湖湿地生态系统服务价值评估研究

利用实地调研结果,结合相关文献资料,采用市场价值法、影子工程法、旅行费用法等评估方法,对溱湖湿地生态系统的物质生产、涵养水源和调蓄洪水、提供动植物栖息地、调节气候、降解污染物和科考旅游等6个效益最为突出的生态系统服务功能经济价值指标进行评估。研究表明：溱湖湿地生态系统的总价值为1.15×109元,其中直接使用价值为7.708×108元,间接使用价值为3.62×108元,非使用价值为0.18×108元。其中科考旅游价值所占比重最大,为40.84％,调节气候价值次之,而生物多样性保护价值仅占1.45%。对溱湖湿地生态系统服务功能及服务价值的探讨,可正确认识该生态系统的生态经济价值,为合理开发利用提供决策参考,确保其资源的可持续利用。     

Moveout approximation for horizontal transversely isotropic and vertical transversely isotropic layered medium. Part I: 1D ray propagation‡

Anisotropy in subsurface geological models is primarily caused by two factors: sedimentation in shale/sand layers and fractures. The sedimentation factor is mainly modelled by vertical transverse isotropy (VTI), whereas the fractures are modelled by a horizontal transversely isotropic medium (HTI). In this paper we study hyperbolic and non‐hyperbolic normal reflection moveout for a package of HTI/VTI layers, considering arbitrary azimuthal orientation of the symmetry axis at each HTI layer. We consider a local 1D medium, whose properties change vertically, with flat interfaces between the layers. In this case, the horizontal slowness is preserved; thus, the azimuth of the phase velocity is the same for all layers of the package. In general, however, the azimuth of the ray velocity differs from the azimuth of the phase velocity. The ray azimuth depends on the layer properties and may be different for each layer. In this case, the use of the Dix equation requires projection of the moveout velocity of each layer on the phase plane. We derive an accurate equation for hyperbolic and high‐order terms of the normal moveout, relating the traveltime to the surface offset, or alternatively, to the subsurface reflection angle. We relate the azimuth of the surface offset to its magnitude (or to the reflection angle), considering short and long offsets. We compare the derived approximations with analytical ray tracing.     

Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

This paper addresses correlations between multiple components in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation. To date, the consideration of such correlations has been limited by methodological tractability, increased computational demand, and a paucity of data for their computation. The effect of component correlations, which arises in various forms, is however a significant factor affecting the results of structure‐specific seismic loss estimation and therefore it is prudent that adequate consideration be given to their effect. This paper provides the details of a tractable and computationally efficient seismic loss estimation methodology in which correlations can be considered. Methods to determine the necessary correlations are discussed, particularly those that can be used in the absence of sufficient empirical data, for which values are suggested based on the judgement. The effects of various assumptions regarding correlations are illustrated via application to a case‐study office structure. It is observed that certain correlation assumptions can lead to errors in excess of 50% in the lognormal standard deviation in the loss given intensity and loss hazard relationships, while full consideration of partial correlations is 50 times more computationally expensive than other assumptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GPS高程时间序列粗差的抗差探测与插补研究

研究抗差估计和稳健估计粗差探测IQR准则的粗差剔除算法以及缺值点插值的正交多项式最小二乘拟合方法。以中国3个CORS基准站从1999-03-01—2009-12-31日的单天解GPS高程时间序列为对象进行粗差探测与插补的试验。结果表明：抗差估计比IQR准则能更有效地探测和剔除粗差;三次样条插值当连续缺失历元超过5~10个时插值结果易发生扭曲;低次正交多项式拟合的结果稳定,一般选择2~3次拟合即可获得理想的效果,当连续缺失历元达3个月时,正交多项式拟合后的曲线与序列趋势仍基本一致。     

基于Modis地表温度的横断山区气温估算及其时空规律分析

横断山区气象观测站稀少且多分布在河谷之中,气温资料极度匮乏,严重影响山区地理与生态研究。随着遥感技术的发展,热红外遥感数据,结合地面观测数据,可以用来推测山区气温。本文通过对横断山区2001 年-2007 年间64 个气象台站的多年月平均气温数据(Ta) 与Modis地表温度多年月平均值(Ts) 进行了时序分析和回归分析,并取得如下研究结果：(1) Ts 与Ta 具有非常好的线性相关关系,89%的台站的决定系数高于0.5;95%的台站的标准误差都低于3 oC,84.4%的台站标准误差低于2.5 oC;12 个月份的Ts 与Ta 的决定系数R²在0.63~0.90 之间,标准误差在2.22~3.05 oC之间。(2) 研究区内月均气温的变化范围在-2.25~15.64 oC之间;生长季(5-9 月份) 的月均气温变化范围为：10.44~15.64 oC。(3) 等温线的海拔高度自山体外围向内部逐渐升高,与山体效应的增温效应相吻合;0 oC等温线自10 月份从海拔4700±500 m左右逐渐降低,至1月份降至最低点,约在3500±500 m左右,此后,逐渐回升,至次年5 月份再次达到4700±500 m左右,也就是说横断山区5200 m以下的广大山区全年至少有6~12 个月的气温在0 oC以上。研究表明：可以利用Modis月均地表温度结合地面观测台站的数据较精确的估算山区月均气温。     

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基于全球价值链的顺德产业升级路径和高端化策略分析

以全球价值链理论为指导,分析顺德产业的现状特征,指出顺德产业在全球价值链中普遍处于附加值低的环节,规模小、专业化程度低、研发创新能力不足、缺乏自主品牌等制约了顺德产业的升级。为占据全球价值链的高端,顺德产业升级必须坚持"优二进三"战略,坚持"增量调优、存量调强"以及"增量"与"存量"相结合的三条路径来促进产业向高端化升级,同时实施技术化和服务化战略,加大顺德产业的整合以及技术创新和品牌建设力度,加快第三产业尤其是生产性服务业的发展,以实现顺德产业的快速升级转型和可持续发展。     

不同温度条件下冻结兰州黄土单轴试验的CT实时动态监测

改进了与CT扫描系统配套使用的三轴仪。改进后三轴仪由控温精度达到±0.1℃的压力罐和加载装置组成,能够实现对冻土力学试验过程真正的CT实时动态监测。对不同温度条件下的冻结兰州黄土单轴压缩过程进行了CT动态扫描, 得到如下结论,应变0～0.7%的阶段,试样发生弹性变形,CT数轻微增大;应变0.7%～6.5%的阶段,开始发生塑性变形,但还没有发生损伤,CT数变化不大;当应变大于6.5%时,试样的CT数明显变小,损伤开始发生,直至应变达到10%时,试样发生破坏,随后CT数也急剧减小。因此,冻结兰州黄土的屈服应变为0.7%,损伤应变临界值为6.5%,破坏应变临界值为10%。另外,温度对试样的CT数也有影响,在-0.6～-1.7 ℃的温度范围内,试样CT数变化具有很明显的规律,即温度越低,CT数越小,在-1.7 ℃和-5 ℃试验条件下CT数变化不大。