镇江地区降雨导致滑坡规律统计分析

江苏镇江地区地属丘陵地带，近年来由于气候变化，调查资料显示镇江地区短时强降雨或持续时间较长的降雨经常 诱发大量浅层滑坡，降雨是区内滑坡主要影响因素，造成了较大的经济损失。文章通过对镇江地区300多个山体边坡进行 详细现场环境地质调查，结合收集气象资料，对该地区的滑坡与降雨相关参数的关系进行统计分析，得到了降雨量与降雨 持续时间对滑坡数量的变化关系。确定了镇江地区降雨阈值I-D 曲线，并将分析结果与其他地区进行了对比分析，研究成 果可为镇江地区滑坡治理和预警预报提供依据。     

用GMS卫星资料反演复杂地形下的降水率

强降水主要由生命史短的中小尺度天气系统造成,对此类天气系统的预报,目前只有依靠卫星和雷达的实时监测并结合中系统的概念模式外推来完成。由于中国西北地区地形极为复杂,造成雷达盲区,影响其估算降水率。因此采用GMS-4卫星的红外和可见光展宽云图资料,经处理并转换后,再加入相应网格点上的数字化地形高度资料作为因子之一,用多级逐步判别模式估算逐时雨强等级,最后形成一套可在微机上对雨强场进行图像显示及处理的软件系统,满足了现时预报的需要。结果表明,小雨以上的降雨区域不论面积、形状均与实况基本一致。     

A variance-ratio test for supporting a variable mean in kriging

This article discusses the issue of whether to use a variable mean and describes a test that can be used to evaluate whether it is justified to add terms to the drift (deterministic part) of a geostatistical model. The basic model could be the intrinsic one, where the deterministic part is a constant, and the alternate model could be any model that includes a constant term in the expression for the drift. Also, differences between constant- and variable-mean models are discussed.     

地球物理反问题中的随机反演理论

本文从最大后验概率密度观点出发，在数据噪音向量和待求模型向量为具有零均值的独立高斯随机过程的假设前提下，建立起了随机反演的非线性系统方程；给出了模型方差估计的函数表达式，并在文章最后，证明了反演解的稀疏性，即解释了随机反演的输出解的高分辨率特征。文章在最小二乘反演方法的基础上，发展并完善了随机反演方法的理论基础；揭示了随机反演方法与最小二乘反演方法之间的本质区别；阐述了随机反演方法的优越性，并指出了其广阔的应用前景。     

Study of the liquefaction resistance of a saturated sand reinforced with Geosynthetics

This article presents various tests using a cyclic triaxial instrument, on samples of saturated Hostun RF sand, reinforced with circular sheets of geosynthetic material. Tests performed with different types of geosynthetics of different compressibility, rigidity and roughness characteristics indicate a significant increase in liquefaction resistance for samples reinforced with compressible, non-woven geotextiles. The undrained behaviour of saturated Hostun RF sand reinforced with non-woven geotextiles is analysed on the basis of different test series. This analysis highlights the influence of reinforcement compressibility on interstitial pressure distribution in the sample, thus showing the role of this type of inclusion in the increase in liquefaction resistance.     

Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events: a robust approach

In Smith (1986, J. Hydrol. 86, 27–43), a family of statistical distributions and estimators for extreme values based on a fixed number r > = 1 of the largest annual events are presented. The method of estimation was numerical maximum likelihood. In this paper, we consider the robust estimation of parameters in such families of distributions. The estimation technique, which is based on optimal B-robust estimates, will assign weights to each observation and give estimates of the parameters based on the data which are well modeled by the distribution. Thus, observations which are not consistent with the proposed distribution can be identified and the validity of the model can be assessed. The method is illustrated on Venice sea level data.     

大地电磁场的两种大震短临异常

根据中法电磁合作台运行6年的资料，在年变形态对比的基础上合理地选取有效测道值构建了相应的时间序列图。从中发现昆仑山口西8．1级大震前一个多月时间中，正常大地电磁场中叠加间歇性畸变干扰，按形态分为‘阶跃突跳’、‘单尖突变’两种类型。简略地讨论了产生两种异常现象的可能机制。     

由分段供水向全天候供水的可行性研究 --以赵各庄矿为例

根 据 开 滦 集 团 赵 各 庄 矿 业 公 司 水 文 地 质 情 况 和 居 民 用 水 的 现 状 ,提 出 全 天 供 水 的 新 观 念 ,即 将 全 年 需 集 中强 排 的 水量 变 为 人 们日 常 生 活 的用 水 量 ,既 解 决 了 分 时 间 段 供 水 给 职 工 生 活 造 成 的 不 便 ,提 高 了 人 们 的 生 活 质 量 ,又 合理 的 利用 了水 资 源,而且 还可 以 降低 奥灰 水 对安 全生 产 的威 胁。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.