Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

郑州强对流天气成因分析

对2004年郑州出现的7次强对流天气过程的天气形势、影响系统及稳定度的分析结果表明：华北低涡和NW气流形势下存在着低层升温、高层降温机制,使大气层结趋于不稳定,当测站高低空温差或温度平流差达到一定量值,且近地层存在辐合系统时,易出现强对流; SW气流或高压控制时,大气高温高湿,具有较强不稳定能量,若850 hPa或地面出现辐合系统时,易产生强对流;地面湿度连续数天加大或保持在某一值域,其上空温湿24 h变化呈上趋冷下趋暖或上趋干下趋湿并达到一定量值,预示强对流的发生;700～500 hPa湿度明显减小,24 h温度露点差加大4 ℃以上,或近地层θse≥350K,中低层Δθse≥26 K,θse小值位于700 hPa或500 hPa,其厚度≥2000 m,易出现强雷雨大风; 700 hPa以下t-td≤4.3 ℃,或连续4天850 hPa t-td≤7 ℃、700 hPa t-td≤5 ℃、500 hPa t-td≤9 ℃,PW≥12,可预示短时暴雨的出现.     

Nonlinear free thermal convection in a spherical shell:A variable viscosity model

Introduction The velocity field of surface plate motion can be split into a poloidal and a toroidal parts.At the Earth′s surface,the toroidal component is manifested by the existence of transform faults,and the poloidal component by the presence of convergence and divergence,i.e.spreading and subduc-tion zones.They have coupled each other and completely depicted the characteristics of plate tec-tonic motions.The mechanism of poloidal field has been studied fairly clearly which is related to …     

Numerical model of convection in sills

The numerical model of convection in magma sills is developed. The model is based on a full system of equations of fluid dynamics and includes heat transfer, buoyancy effects and diffusion of some minor component (marker). Solidification is treated as a phase transition. The results indicate that there are some qualitative differences between very thin sills with Rayleigh number Ra = 10⁵ and thin sills with Ra = 10⁶. For a basaltic magma the first case corresponds to the thickness of the sills of approximately 30 cm and the second case corresponds to the thickness of 60 cm. In the first case mixing is inefficient and conduction is the dominant form of heat transfer. In the second case mixing is efficient and convection is the dominant form of heat transfer. Some of the results can be scaled for the more viscous magmas in thicker sills.     

THE U.S. MILITARY AS GEOGRAPHICAL AGENT: THE CASE OF COLD WAR ALASKA*

ABSTRACT. Alaska was strategically key to the U.S. defense plan during the cold war (1946–1989). As such, it was the scene of an enormous and sustained military investment, the effect of which was amplified by Alaska's undiversified economy, sparse development, small resident population, and marginalized political status at the beginning of the era. The strong military presence affected Alaskan demographics, economic development, and infrastructure and figured prominently in the admission of Alaska to the union in 1959. The high profile and long‐term presence of the U.S. military had such a dramatic affect on the course of Alaska that the result was tantamount to a “militarized landscape.”     

Deep Mechanical Background for the Cenozoic Volcanism in the Tibetan Plateau

INTRODUCTION Volcanoesaremostlyobservedinoceanicridges,hotspotsandcontinentalriftzones(Hongetal.,2003),andarerarelyobservedincontinentalinteri ors.However,sincethevolcanoeswithintheconti nentinteriorscannotbeattributedtotheplate/block marginprocess,theydr…