利用地面LiDAR精细化测量活断层微地貌形态——以毛垭坝断裂禾尼处断层崖为例

受地壳内部持续运动和沉积、风化等自然动力及人类生产与生活活动影响,活断层微地貌形态往往比较复杂,传统测量方法较难快速、高效地获取大范围内精细化的活断层微地貌形态,激光雷达扫描技术的出现和发展为活断层微地貌的精细化与定量化研究提供了新的技术手段。以川西理塘毛垭坝盆地北缘的正断层崖为研究对象,利用地面LiDAR获取活断层微地貌高精度点云后,经过点云配准、滤波、重采样和三角构网处理后,建立了0.05 m分辨率的数字高程模型和真彩色三维模型,在此基础上分析了断层崖地貌特征,并获取了正断层错动两期最新地貌面的精确垂直位错量。研究结果表明,地面LiDAR技术是精细测量活断层微地貌形态和量化相关地貌特征参数的有效手段,提高了活断层微地貌形态测量的精度和认识水平。     

四川盆地云和降水观测科学试验设计与实践

2014—2017年四川地区开展了大范围云系观测科学试验。观测对象以盆地层状云系和积层混合云系为主,积状云(对流云)为辅。本文围绕试验目标、区域、观测要素、观测布局设计、观测方案设计、设备技术参数和典型个例等7个方面进行介绍,根据不同类型云系和降水变化特征,设计有针对性的观测方案,获得了不同类型云系和降水的多尺度连续性观测数据,为四川地区开展云和降水关系研究提供详实的综合型外场观测数据。层状降水云典型个例云高可达8km,云强核心部位的云雷达反射率可达28dBz,径向速度可达-6m·s~(-1),在0℃附近,反射率和退偏振因子LDR上有一条明显的亮带,表现为极大值,液态水主要集中于4.5km以下,随着雨强增大,液水含量增加,降水滴谱分布较窄,随着雨强减小,雨滴谱和速度谱变窄,但小粒径数浓度增加,说明对层状云雨强起主导作用的是雨滴直径,而不是数浓度;无降水层状云典型个例云层厚度为3.2km,云顶约为4km,云雷达反射率不超过0dBz,径向速度不超过5m·s~(-1),层状云内整层水汽含量和液水含量较为稳定,云中主要为液态粒子且粒径偏小、小粒径数浓度较高。     

Validation for a tropical belt version of WRF: sensitivity tests on radiation and cumulus convection parameterizations

对基本气候态和降水日变化的分析是检验模式模拟性能、理解模式误差来源的重要手段。为了评估出对热带气候模拟效果较好的物理参数化方案组合,本文应用WRF带状区域模式,主要比较了四种积云对流参数化方案:NewTiedtke、Kain-Fritsch、newSAS、Tiedtke,和两种辐射参数化方案:RRTMG和CAM,对热带带状区域的气候模拟结果。研究表明:使用NewTiedtke积云对流参数化方案和RRTMG辐射方案的试验,表现出对气温、降水及降水日变化等综合性最好的模拟性能;NewTiedtke积云对流参数化方案能模拟出较好的降水空间分布和降水日变化位相分布特征;与RRTMG辐射方案相比,CAM辐射方案会使温度模拟偏低,特别是陆地上更明显,这种陆地上的冷偏差可能主要来源于Tmin的模拟偏冷。     

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

A Numerical Investigation on Microphysical Properties of Clouds and Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer 2014

In order to improve our understanding of microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), six cloud and precipitation processes with different intensities during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Science Experiment (TIPEX-Ⅲ) from 3 July to 25 July 2014 in Naqu region of the TP are investigated by using the high-resolution mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show unique properties of summertime clouds and precipitation processes over the TP. The initiation process of clouds is closely associated with strong solar radiative heating in the daytime, and summertime clouds and precipitation show an obvious diurnal variation. Generally, convective clouds would transform into stratiform clouds with an obvious bright band and often produce strong rainfall in midnight. The maximum cloud top can reach more than 15 km above sea level and the velocity of updraft ranges from 10 to 40 m s-1. The simulations show high amount of supercooled water content primarily located between 0 and -20℃ layer in all the six cases. Ice crystals mainly form above the level of -20℃ and even appear above the level of -40℃ within strong convective clouds. Rainwater mostly appears below the melting layer, indicating that its formation mainly depends on the melting process of precipitable ice particles. Snow and graupel particles have the characteristics of high content and deep vertical distribution, showing that the ice phase process is very active in the development of clouds and precipitation. The conversion and formation of hydrometeors and precipitation over the plateau exhibit obvious characteristics. Surface precipitation is mainly formed by the melting of graupel particles. Although the warm cloud microphysical process has less direct contribution to the formation of surface precipitation, it is important for the formation of supercooled raindrops, which are essential for the formation of graupel embryos through heterogeneous freezing process. The growth of graupel particles mainly relies on the riming process with supercooled cloud water and aggregation of snow particles.     

SENSITIVITY OF THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL TO RADIATION SCHEMES IN CHINA

Results of one-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, with the use of different radiation schemes (RRTM, RRTMG, CAM, New Goddard and Goddard), are evaluated for China. The observations used in the model assessment include station data from the China Meteorological Administration, 14 flux field sites arranged in a coordinated observation network, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. Specifically, based on a Taylor diagram, the temperature differences between the radiation schemes are small, and the best annual mean spatial pattern and average value for China as a whole is produced by RRTMG. For the rainfall and net radiation annual mean simulation, the New Goddard and CAM schemes present better results than the RRTMG scheme. With respect to low cloud cover, all the schemes have similar reproduction without high cover on east of Tibet Plateau. Overall, the New Goddard and CAM schemes are suitable for longtime simulation without nesting and nudging options.     

青藏高原云团东传过程及其中中尺度对流系统的统计特征

利用逐小时风云卫星TBB资料、逐小时中国自动站与CMORPH降水产品融合数据以及国家级地面观测站24小时累积降水量,统计分析2010～2016年夏季,伴随下游地区（104°E以东）降水的青藏高原云团东传过程以及东传过程中镶嵌于云团中的中尺度对流系统（Mesoscale Convective System,简称MCS）特征。结果表明,共出现120次伴随下游降水的高原云团东传过程,6月出现最频繁,但持续时间较长的过程多出现在7月。云团向东传播的主要三条路径是平直东传、沿长江折向东传和复合东传。其中路径二——沿长江折向东传中的过程是高影响过程,因为过程次数较多（46次）,过程平均持续时间较长（62小时）,在下游地区引发的降水日数和暴雨日数最多。属于东传过程的MCS在7月形成最多,集中分布在青藏高原东坡、云贵高原东部、长江沿岸及其以南地区。高原MCS影响长江中下游地区降水主要是通过向东传播的形式实现,因为即使生命史更长的中α尺度对流系统（Meso-α Convective System,简称MαCS）也鲜少直接移动至110°E以东地区。不同区域的中α尺度持续性拉长形对流系统（Permanent Elongated Convective System,简称PECS）的日变化特征显示,东传过程MCS更容易在夜间从高原东坡向东传播至下游地区。在三条路径中,路径二中的东传过程MCS数量最多、在下游地区发展最旺盛并与降水日数和覆盖范围存在更好的对应关系。     

基于多源卫星数据的云底高度反演算法在中国近海的应用研究

本文利用直减率反演云底高度的计算方法,联合星载主、被动探测资料开展了中国东海、南海上空暖云云底高度反演研究,同时对暖云的分布特征进行了统计。结果表明受大气层结稳定程度影响,夜间的反演效果优于白天。两种资料的云顶高度较一致时,反演效果好,该方法具有可行性。     

94/220 GHz星载雷达双波长比对非球形冰晶云参数敏感性分析

利用不同形状冰晶的散射特性,获得了非球形冰晶云的94/220 GHz测云雷达双波长比,探讨了非球形冰晶云的双波长比与云内微物理参数的关系,分析了衰减前后的星载雷达反射率因子及双波长比的垂直廓线。结果表明:（1）双波长比可以反映小到0.1 mm中值尺度的冰粒子,对粒子总数、谱的形状参数不敏感,对粒子大小、形状、云衰减较敏感。（2）雷达灵敏度一定时,星载雷达可测云厚与雷达波长、冰含水量（IWC）的垂直分布、云厚及衰减有关;没有进行衰减订正时,双波长比和衰减有关,冰含水量越大,波长越短,衰减越大,双波长比最大值与可探测云厚有关。两部雷达可探测冰含水量为0.001—0.1 g/m3、厚2 km的冰云;当云厚5 km、冰含水量垂直分布在0.001—0.2 g/m3时,云厚的94%基本可以被220 GHz云雷达探测到。（3）如果两部雷达气象方程中用水的介电因子,测量回波强度应进行介电因子的订正后再计算双波长比。      

中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验

中尺度降水模式预报具有很大的不确定性,为更好地描述与模式降水预报密切相关的物理过程关键参数的不确定性,基于中国气象局GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）中尺度区域集合预报模式,从对模式降水预报不确定性有较大影响的积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层等4个参数化方案中选取了18个关键参数,设计了一种随机参数扰动方案（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization,SPP）,并通过2015年6—7月总计10 d的随机扰动集合预报试验,对比分析了SPP方案对不同物理过程参数扰动敏感性、随机场时、空尺度敏感性、能量变化特征及其集合预报效果。结果显示,对所选择的任一物理过程参数化方案增加SPP扰动后,降水及等压面要素的概率预报技巧优于无SPP扰动的预报,而扰动积云对流和边界层过程中的参数较扰动云微物理过程中的参数影响更显著,且同时扰动积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层参数化方案中的18个参数的集合预报效果优于扰动任何单一物理过程中的部分参数,表明SPP方案能够有效地提高中尺度降水概率预报技巧;从能量变化特征可知,不同物理过程的参数扰动对动能、内能和总能量的影响层次和特征有所不同,但总体而言,扰动前后各项能量基本相同;随机场时、空尺度敏感性试验发现,SPP扰动随机场时间、空间相关尺度对集合预报效果有明显影响,当扰动随机场选用12 h抗相关时间及截断波数20时,集合预报结果最优。上述结果表明,SPP随机参数扰动方案不仅能够有效提高集合概率预报效果,还能够提高集合降水概率预报技巧,具有良好的业务应用与发展前景。