巴基斯坦卡拉奇─海得拉巴区域地震危险性预测

本文讨论了巴基斯坦的地震构造，潜在震源和历史与现代地震活动性，并在此基础上使用确定性和概率性两种方法计算了各发震断层５０年内最大可能的地震在卡拉奇和海得拉巴两城市将引起的地面峰值加速度以及５０年内超越概率为１４％的等加速度区划图。     

ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN LAHORE AND MIANWALI OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES

Surface air temperatures recorded over the past three decades at the weather stations located in Lahore (anindustrialized and densely populated city) and Mianwali (a small and sparsely populated city) were analyzed in order tostudy their climatic trend.Lahore,where meteorological data are recorded at two weather stations (city station and air-port station) indicates a cooling trend,of about 0.5℃ per record period of 1953—1992,for the airport station (31°31′N,74°24′E) and a slight warming trend,of about 0.2℃,for the city station (31°33′N,74°20′E) for the record period of 1950—1992.The Mianwali weather station (32°33′N,71°31′E) also shows a slight cooling trend,of about 0.4℃ per recordperiod of 1959—1992.The climatic variability at these stations was studied by computing seasonal and annual tempera-ture anomalies.The results are explained in terms of the local environmental conditions.     

中国龙卷风的若干特征

应用数理统计方法和通过对观测资料的分析，研究了龙卷风的气候特征；根据近年天气资料，研究了龙卷风发生的天气系统，层结特征，风场和母体云团的特征。     

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF EARTH-ATMOSPHERE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION OVER CHINA*

ERBE and ISCCP data are used to investigate the cloud forcing and latitude and atmospheric temperature effects on outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) in the earth-atmosphere system,and the similarity of OLR field to 500 hPa and surface effective radiation fields.Also,discussion is taken up of the OLR distribution on a nationwide basis,indicating that the winter(summer) OLR pattern is roughly a zonal type(asymmetrical saddle) with the annual pattern analogous to the January one.In the end the yearly OLR variation features are addressed on a regional basis.     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

金沙江下游云南小江流域山地灾害综合区划

在分别完成云南小江流域泥石流危险度区划、滑坡危险度区划和土壤侵蚀强度分区的基础上,对小江流域山地灾害进行综合区划。结果为,共分为三个不同等级的山地灾害综合区:(1)一级(高危险度)山地灾害综合区,(2)二级(次高危险度)山地灾害综合区和(3)四级(低危险度)山地灾害综合区;无三级(中危险度)山地灾害综合区。其中一级(高危险度)区面积1 425.34 km2,有泥石流沟84条,占区划区域泥石流沟总数的60.0%,有滑坡137个,占区划区域滑坡总数的77.4%,土壤侵蚀强度以轻、中度为主;二级(次高危险度)区面积756.79 km2,有泥石流沟35条,占区划区域泥石流沟总数的25.0%,有滑坡34个,占区划区域滑坡总数的19.2%,土壤侵蚀以轻、中度为主;四级(低危险度)区面积863.20 km2,有泥石流沟21条,占区划区域泥石流沟总数的15.0%,有滑坡6个,占区划区域滑坡总数的3.4%,土壤侵蚀以轻度为主。     

广西防城港市旅游气候资源评价及其利用

气候资源是旅游业开发中十分重要的资源之一,通过分析防城港市旅游资源和气候资源,并对其优势和人体舒适度进行了综合评价,指出防城港市具有旅游资源丰富、地理气候特征显著、适宜旅游时间长等优势;同时从舒适度分析得出,本市秋冬季节温暖舒适,是避冬的好地方,夏季高温时间少,是避暑的圣地。据此提出充分利用本地的旅游气候资源,打造本市旅游精品,开发以秋冬季为主的度假游,充分利用沿海的天然浴场,创建十万大山国家森林公园生态环保天然疗养院,做强做大防城港市旅游产业。     

气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展

气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。 统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。      

漳州市山体滑坡主要影响因素分析

对漳州市区域内近十几年来所发生滑坡的地质灾害点进行调查研究,提出了漳州地区山体滑坡主要受地形、地质、气象和人类工程活动因素的综合影响。一般地形坡度在25°～50°,坡型为阶梯型、人工边坡无支挡,土质边坡坡度大于70°与坡高大于4m者,连续10d内降雨量在170mm以上,且日降雨量在100mm的强降雨时,发生滑坡的概率,达71.7%。故此,降雨量170mm以上、日降雨量大于或等于100mm时,可作为漳州市地质灾害预警预报的指标。     

生态屏障约束下的综合功能区划研究——以云南省昭通市为例(英文)

Ecological shelter zones reconstruction is an ecosystem restoration and conserva-tion project aimed to the ecological safety of nations,regions and basins. Reconstruction of ecological shelter zones of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River became one of the most important tasks of Western Development strategy. This article,taking Zhaotong as an exam-ple,studies the functional regionalization of ecological shelter zones. The study supplies a case for functional regionalization of small and medium regions whose main tasks are envi-ronment reservation. With the guidance of theories of functional regionalization,and based on the analysis of Zhaotong's natural,ecological and socioeconomic factors,the paper suggests five principles for factors selection. These principles include: (1) reversing order evaluation; (2) selecting main factors; (3) keeping the integrality of administrative regions of towns; and (4) making the products acceptable by local government. To analyze spatial status of selected factors,LUCC data in 2002,1:50,000 relief maps and town-unit socioeconomic statistical data in 2004 are used. RS and GIS tools are also applied to melt traditional and modern geo-graphical methods. This would be useful to functional regionalization research in mountain-ous areas. As a conclusion,the leading functional regions of ecological conservation or economic development are suggested,respectively. Zhaotong city is divided into two-level functional regions. The first-level includes three leading functional regions and they will lead developing direction of sub-regions. The second-level includes eight sub-regions,which are policy implemented regions,and will supply guidance to Zhaotong's ecological shelter zones reconstruction.