新疆冰川近期变化及其对水资源的影响研究

新疆的冰川水资源居全国第一,在新疆水资源构成和河川径流调节方面占有重要地位。最近30多年来,随着气温升高,冰川出现了剧烈的消融退缩,冰川融水径流量普遍增加,并对气温的依赖性增强。文章基于最新冰川观测研究资料,阐述新疆冰川的近期变化,分析对水资源的影响。研究表明,所研究的1800条冰川,在过去26～44年间,总面积缩小了11.7％,平均每条冰川缩小0.243km2,末端退缩速率5.8m/a。冰川在不同区域的缩小比率为8.8％～34.2％,单条冰川的平均缩小量为0.092～0.415km²,末端平均后退量为 3.5～10.5m/a。由于新疆各流域中冰川的分布、变化特征,以及融水所占河川径流的比例不同,因此,未来气候变化对新疆各个区域水资源的影响程度和表现形式是不同的。分析表明,在塔里木河流域,冰川水资源具有举足轻重的作用,但是,一旦冰川消融殆尽,对该地区将产生灾难性影响,现今该区冰川消融正盛,估计在今后30～50年,只要保持升温,冰川融水量仍会维持。未来20～40年,天山北麓水系中,1km²左右的小冰川趋于消失,大于5km²冰川消融强烈,因此,以小冰川居多的河流受冰川变化的影响较大。东疆盆地水系中的冰川数量少,并处在加速消融状态,河川径流对冰川的依赖性强,冰川的变化已经对水资源量及年内分配产生影响,水资源已经处在不断恶化之中。对于伊犁河与额尔齐斯河流域,未来冰川变化对水资源的影响在数量上可能有限,但会大大削弱冰川融水径流的调节功能。而气候变化对积雪水资源的影响和可能造成的后果应该予以特别关注。     

甘肃河西走廊早期冶炼活动及影响的炭屑化石记录

炭屑化石的显微结构研究是根据木材的解剖特征（组成木材的细胞与组织的形态和排列方式）确定燃烧植物的类型,重建古植被和古环境,探讨人类活动对环境的影响。火石梁和缸缸洼青铜冶炼点位于河西走廊西北部、黑河流域下游巴丹吉林南缘沙地中,散布了大量的炭屑化石遗存。通过炭屑化石3个切面（横切面、径切面和弦切面）显微结构特征研究,比对现代切片标本和木材解剖图版,识别和确定炭屑化石的木材种属,确定 2100～1860BC期间的青铜冶炼所用木材为柽柳、杨属、柳属、蓼科4种乔灌木植物,火石梁和缸缸洼地区大量乔、灌群落生长要比目前荒漠生态环境优越的多。先民的青铜冶炼活动导致乔木和灌木植物被大量砍伐,植被盖度急剧降低,对生态环境产生重大影响,是1900BC左右杨属、柳属和蓼科乔灌木植物基本消失的主要原因。     

陇中黄土高原夏季陆面辐射和热量特征研究

利用兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站(SACOL)的观测资料,分析了陇中黄土高原夏季陆面辐射和热量收支的特征.通过研究不同典型天气条件对陆面过程微气象特征的影响,发现地表反射率在晴天会出现早晨偏大的不对称结构;晴天与多云天气相比不平衡量较大,而阴天时的阵性降水会使局地能量收支出现不平衡.利用最小二乘法(OLS)线性回归得到的夏季平均不闭合度是19.6%.在半干旱区云和降水对辐射和能量收支的影响不容忽视,达到约25%的削弱程度,比极端干旱的敦煌荒漠区要大,又进一步证明了半干旱区夏季的平均气候特征与云量较多的多云天气(5≤Mean total cloud amount<8)接近.另外,7月日平均波恩比最大是4.1,平均是1.95,比极端干旱区的敦煌波恩比小1个数量级,说明榆中所处的黄土高原半干旱区比敦煌所处的极端干旱区在气候上要湿润很多.     

甘肃省黑河干流中游地区泉水动态特征及预报

在简述区域水文地质条件的基础上,依据1986～2007年泉水流量系列观测资料,详细论述了区内下降泉、上升泉的年内和多年动态变化特征,对比分析了1967年、1984年、2006年测区各泉域泉水量和泉水总量的时空分布规律和变化特征。利用已有的潜水二维流水量数学模型,推递并建立了利用泉点周围节点水头(水位)预报泉水流量的数学模型,并对测区泉水总量未来15年的变化趋势进行了预报。结果表明,在现状节水灌溉条件下,由于出山径流量的增加和地下水开采量的减少,未来黑河干流中游地区的泉水资源基本处于稳定状态。     

三维地震资料在圈定煤层结构变化上的应用

随着煤炭开采机械化程度的不断提高,煤层结构的变化对采掘工作的影响日益突出。三维地震资料不仅能够控制落差3~5m以上的断层和幅度大于5m的褶曲,而且还可以利用三维资料所包含的丰富地质信息,包括煤层反射波振幅能量强弱的变化、波阻抗反演等对煤层结构的变化情况进行圈定,以提供煤层结构方面的地质资料。     

Late second-early first millennium BC abrupt climate changes in coastal Syria and their possible significance for the history of the Eastern Mediterranean

The alluvial deposits near Gibala-Tell Tweini provide a unique record of environmental history and food availability estimates covering the Late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age. The refined pollen-derived climatic proxy suggests that drier climatic conditions occurred in the Mediterranean belt of Syria from the late 13th/early 12th centuries BC to the 9th century BC. This period corresponds with the time frame of the Late Bronze Age collapse and the subsequent Dark Age. The abrupt climate change at the end of the Late Bronze Age caused region-wide crop failures, leading towards socio-economic crises and unsustainability, forcing regional habitat-tracking. Archaeological data show that the first conflagration of Gibala occurred simultaneously with the destruction of the capital city Ugarit currently dated between 1194 and 1175 BC. Gibala redeveloped shortly after this destruction, with large-scale urbanization visible in two main architectural phases during the Early Iron Age I. The later Iron Age I city was destroyed during a second conflagration, which is radiocarbon-dated at circa 2950 cal yr BP. The data from Gibala-Tell Tweini provide evidence in support of the drought hypothesis as a triggering factor behind the Late Bronze Age collapse in the Eastern Mediterranean.     

Palynological records of Holocene monsoon change from the Gulf of Tonkin (Beibuwan), northwestern South China Sea

Palynological records in cores C4 and B106 from the Gulf of Tonkin reveal signals of paleo-monsoon and paleoenvironmental change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Before ∼ 13.4 cal kyr BP, the Gulf of Tonkin was exposed to the atmosphere and covered by grassland. Starting at ∼ 11.7 cal kyr BP, the Gulf of Tonkin was inundated by brackish water, indicated by the appearance of the brackish algae Cleistosphaeridium, Sentusidinium and Spiniferites, a decrease of herb content, and an increase of Pinus. After Hainan Island was completely separated from the Leizhou Peninsula by Qiongzhou Strait at ∼ 8.5 cal kyr BP, a continuous marine sedimentary environment was found. The current patterns were similar to those of the present, with a general trend of current homogenization reflected by gradually decreasing quantities of Quercus pollen and a narrowing gap between the palynological concentrations of the southern and northern parts of the region. The data suggest that three short periods of strengthened winter monsoons and currents were centered at ∼ 6.0 cal kyr BP, ∼ 2.7 cal kyr BP and ∼ 0.2 cal kyr BP and that two short periods of strengthened summer monsoons and currents were centered at ∼ 7.5 cal kyr BP and ∼ 3.4 cal kyr BP.     

Paleofire reconstruction for high-elevation forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, with implications for wildfire synchrony and climate variability in the late Holocene

Here, we present two high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal from high-elevation lake sites in the Sierra Nevada, California, and evaluate the synchroneity of fire response for east- and west-side subalpine forests during the past 9200 yr. Charcoal influx was low between 11,200 and 8000 cal yr BP when vegetation consisted of sparse Pinus-dominated forest and montane chaparral shrubs. High charcoal influx after ∼ 8000 cal yr BP marks the arrival of Tsuga mertensiana and Abies magnifica, and a higher-than-present treeline that persisted into the mid-Holocene. Coeval decreases in fire episode frequency coincide with neoglacial advances and lower treeline in the Sierra Nevada after 3800 cal yr BP. Independent fire response occurs between 9200 and 5000 cal yr BP, and significant synchrony at 100- to 1000-yr timescales emerges between 5000 cal yr BP and the present, especially during the last 2500 yr. Indistinguishable fire-return interval distributions and synchronous fires show that climatic control of fire became increasingly important during the late Holocene. Fires after 1200 cal yr BP are often synchronous and corroborate with inferred droughts. Holocene fire activity in the high Sierra Nevada is driven by changes in climate linked to insolation and appears to be sensitive to the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

Palynological evidence for Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) vegetation change in the Sydney Coalfield,eastern Canada

The palynology of clastic samples from seven stratigraphical levels in the late Moscovian Sydney Mines Formation, exposed along the shore at Bras d'Or, Nova Scotia, has been investigated. Most of the samples were from roof shales of major coals; the one sample that was not yielded a much higher proportion of pollen derived from extra‐basinal vegetation. The four stratigraphically lower roof shale samples yielded essentially similar palynological spectra, with 39 ± 4% lycophytes, 9 ± 4% sphenophylls, 23 ± 4% tree‐ferns, 12 ± 4% other ferns and 5 ± 3% cordaites. The palynology of the upper part of the investigated succession suggests a shift in vegetation towards one favouring more marattialean tree‐ferns, cordaites and conifers, and fewer lycophytes. This correlates with changes in drainage patterns as the alluvial plain migrated seawards and thus changed water tables. No evidence was found to suggest significant climate change at this time. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1948-2009年塔里木盆地空中水汽输送时空分布特征

利用1948-2009年美国NCEP/NCAR的逐月再分析资料(2.5°×2.5°),分析了塔里木地区大气中不同层次水平和垂直方向的水汽输入、输出和收支情况及其变化趋势.结果表明:1)塔里木盆地上空水平方向为水汽汇,且纬向贡献大于经向,垂直方向水汽主要由下层向中上层输送;2)水汽的水平和垂直净收支均具有季节性变化,且夏季辐合为主,冬季辐散为主;3)水汽的水平和垂直输送都表现为较一致的年际变化,且均在1970年代中后期出现了较明显的年代际突变;4)在1978年到2003年全球变暖明显的时段内,水平方向水汽净输入量呈减少趋势,垂直方向呈增加趋势.可以认为,在气候变化背景下,全球变暖加速了水循环,但同时改变了纬向的热力差异,导致塔里木盆地局地水循环的加速,以及经向水汽净输入量的减少.