Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric-early historic West Asia

The precipitation climatology and the underlying climate mechanisms of the eastern Mediterranean, West Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are reviewed, with emphasis on upper and middle tropospheric flow in the subtropics and its steering of precipitation. Holocene climate change of the region is summarized from proxy records. The Indian monsoon weakened during the Holocene over its northernmost region, the Ganges and Indus catchments and the western Arabian Sea. Southern regions, the Indian Peninsula, do not show a reduction, but an increase of summer monsoon rain across the Holocene. The long-term trend towards drier conditions in the eastern Mediterranean can be linked to a regionally complex monsoon evolution. Abrupt climate change events, such as the widespread droughts around 8200, 5200 and 4200 cal yr BP, are suggested to be the result of altered subtropical upper-level flow over the eastern Mediterranean and Asia.The abrupt climate change events of the Holocene radically altered precipitation, fundamental for cereal agriculture, across the expanse of late prehistoric-early historic cultures known from the archaeological record in these regions. Social adaptations to reduced agro-production, in both dry-farming and irrigation agriculture regions, are visible in the archaeological record during each abrupt climate change event in West Asia. Chronological refinement, in both the paleoclimate and archaeological records, and transfer functions for both precipitation and agro-production are needed to understand precisely the evident causal linkages.     

中国城市群发育现状分析

伴随着市场经济和工业化、城市化的推进。中国城市群正在逐渐形成并快速发展。文章在对城市群概念进行讨论的基础上，选取2002年各项经济指标，从总体经济实力、人均发展水平、中心城市与县域经济发展状况诸方面，对中国各大城市群的发育状况与存在问题进行了综合对比分析，强调国家应采取以城市群为依托的“多极联动”区域发展战略。     

Research progress on international rivers in Asia

With the regional population growth, socioeconomic development, more and more attention has been paid to issues on the shared water allocation and the transboundary eco-security conservation during the development of water resources in the international rivers. In this paper, the existing major problems on transboundary waters in different sub-regions of Asia, such as water shortage, transboundary waters pollution, fragile eco-environment are discussed. Then, the key scientific issues to be concerned in the next study progress on the basis of the analyses of the new research directions and focus fields are raised: (1) unpredicted changes of the hydrologic and water system, and their impacts on the allocation of the sharing waters by global changes; (2) models of the international cooperation on the international rivers on the studies of international and national water laws or regulations, policies, the relative experiences and the case studies; (3) quantificational assessment on environmental flow, available water, and the comprehensive functions and values of the international watercourse system; (4) studies on transboundary aquatic bio-diversity maintenance, transboundary pollution supervision and treatment under the rules and principles accepted by the riparian states; (5) issues on transboundary compensation at the rules of “payments for using”, “payments for harm” and “compensation for benefit”; (6) using advanced 3S techniques to promote the integrated watershed development and management; and so on.     

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

鄂尔多斯盆地石炭纪中央古隆起形成机制

将鄂尔多斯盆地简化为受南北挤压的等厚各向同性弹性薄板模型进行应力—应变场数值模拟,力图揭示鄂尔多斯地区石炭纪出现的细腰状中央古隆起的形成机制。模拟中Z轴方向应变(εz)正值区对应于盆地内部的隆起区,zε正等值线形态对应于隆起形态;单轴挤压条件下,εz正等值线总会呈现沿应力轴方向延伸的细腰状形态;点作用力产生的zε正等值线范围局限,而线作用力产生的εz正值区分布较广。模拟结果表明鄂尔多斯盆地石炭纪细腰状隆起是在南北边界受挤压条件下,应力—应变在盆地内部传递过程中所必然出现的结果,南北向点作用力比南北向线作用力产生的zε等值线形态更接近于鄂尔多斯盆地中央古隆起形态;点作用力可能代表了石炭纪微板块间的点碰撞或者弧—陆碰撞。     

内蒙古中部重、磁场特征与地壳密度结构

中亚造山带中的古生代——中生代花岗岩普遍具有正εNd值，在世界上是十分独特的。美国西部加利福尼亚中生代-新生代花岗岩同样具有正εNd值，并且其地壳的速度分布特征与内蒙古中部十分相似。本文通过与美国加利福尼亚的地球物理研究成果进行对比，来研究内蒙古中部的地壳密度结构，特别是下地壳的组成，试图探讨产生正￡。值花岗岩的深部地质原因。研究结果表明，在大兴安岭-内蒙古造山带下地壳中可能存在与美国加里福尼亚类似的洋壳物质。此外，还对重、磁异常进行了处理，以确定蛇绿岩带的延展情况。由于在西拉木伦河附近存在切割至莫霍面的深断裂，结合地表出现的蛇绿岩带，故提出温都尔庙-西拉木伦河一线可能是内蒙古中部最重要的地质构造界线。     

西昆仑山东段库牙克断裂与康西瓦断裂、阿尔金断裂关系的地球化学证据

新疆昆仑山中部库牙克地区，处于不同大地构造单元的结合部位，一些重要构造线均交会于此，确定它们之间的关系，关键在于库牙克断裂。1：20万区域化探最新成果显示，库牙克地区绝大多数元素两分性特征突出、南北差异明显，北部整体富集MgO、K2O、Na2O、Al2O3、CaO、Cr、Ni、Co、V、Ti、Au、La、Be，而贫Hg、As、Sb、B、Li，南部正好相反。两者之间的分界线从东向西依次对应于阿尔金断裂西段、库牙克断裂、阿什库勒断裂和康西瓦断裂东端。因此，从地球化学角度对库牙克断裂的延伸进行了推断，提出库牙克断裂东连阿尔金、西经阿什库勒与康西瓦断裂相接的新认识。     

滇中禄丰地区侏罗系磁性地层学研究

通过云南中部禄丰地区侏罗系磁性地层学研究，建立了滇中侏罗系磁极性地层柱，为国内及该地区侏罗系地层单元的时代划分与对比提供了基础资料。依据磁性地层学研究的结果，修订了滇中侏罗系的顶界和上、中侏罗统的界线，建立了中、下侏罗统和侏罗系—三叠系界线数据。经对比发现，滇中侏罗系古地磁极与扬子地块侏罗系古地磁参考极之间有较大差异，反映滇中地块自侏罗纪以来曾向南发生了明显移动，产生过顺时针旋转。     

热带地区100 hPa东风气流的气候效应(Ⅱ): 与华北夏季降水的关系

利用1954-1998年NCAR／NCEP再分析资料及同期我国160个测站月降水资料，分析了热带地区100hPa东风与华北夏季降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）从春季到夏季，东风强度与华北夏季降水具有显著而稳定的正相关关系。（2）弱东风年夏季，印度洋及印度次大陆表面温度均为正异常，然而赤道印度洋地区的正异常明显强于其南北两侧。海温异常的这一分布特征，一方面使得100hPa东风减弱；另一方面使得南亚地区海陆热力对比减弱，导致南亚夏季风偏弱，进而造成由该季风区向华北地区的水汽输送减少，华北地区干旱。     

湿位涡守恒条件下西南涡的发展

运用高分辨率数值预报模式 (HIRLAM)模拟了一次中国西南地区在多种活跃天气系统影响下 ,西南涡的发展过程。分析了东亚季风、青藏高压、地形等多种尺度与不同高低空环流形势配合以及在湿位涡守恒条件下对流发展时 ,潜热及不稳定能量的释放 ,对中尺度涡旋和强对流发生发展的作用 ,探讨了西南涡和局地降水增强与消亡的成因与理论 ,并具有实用意义