Hydropower licensing and climate change: Insights from cooperative game theory

Cooperative game theory solutions can provide useful insights into how parties may use water and environmental resources and share any benefits of cooperation. Here, a method based on Nash and Nash-Harsanyi bargaining solutions is developed to explore the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing process, in which owners of non-federal hydropower projects in the United States have to negotiate their allowable operations, with other interest groups (mainly environmental). Linkage of games to expand the feasible solution range and the “strategic loss” concept are discussed and a FERC relicensing bargaining model is developed for studying the bargaining stage (third stage) of the relicensing process. Based on the suggested solution method, how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long delay in FERC relicensing in practice is explained. Further, potential effects of climate change on the FERC relicensing are presented and how climate change may provide an incentive for cooperation among the parties to hasten the relicensing is discussed. An “adaptive FERC license” framework is proposed, based on cooperative game theory, to improve the performance and adaptability of the system to future changes with no cost to the FERC, in face of uncertainty about future hydrological and ecological conditions.     

城市近地层湍流特征分析

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所在北京的325 m铁塔观测资料,本文分析了47、140和280 m三个高度的湍流统计特征.结果表明,城市近地层的湍流速度方差和湍流温度方差都较好地满足局地相似关系,140 m和280 m的湍流特征非常接近,而47 m的湍流特征与之相比表现出明显的差异,说明由于城市冠层动力和热力非均匀性的影响...     

气枪激发信号传播的谱元法数值模拟研究

为了研究气枪激发信号的波场,本文利用谱元法对双相介质中波的传播做了数值模拟,分析了波的传播特征.本文主要做了以下工作:(1)研究了使用谱无法(SEM)模拟孔隙弹性介质中波的传播,模拟结果表明,采用谱元法能有效解决双相介质的波场传播模拟问题.(2)验证了Biot理论中慢纵波的存在.双相介质中存在明显的慢纵波,流相波场的慢...     

Artificial neural network forward modelling and inversion of electrokinetic logging data

An artificial neural network method is proposed as a computationally economic alternative to numerical simulation by the Biot theory for predicting borehole seismoelectric measurements given a set of formation properties. Borehole seismoelectric measurements are simulated using a finite element forward model, which solves the Biot equations together with an equation for the streaming potential. The results show that the neural network method successfully predicts the streaming potentials at each detector, even when the input pressures are contaminated with 10% Gaussian noise. A fast inversion methodology is subsequently developed in order to predict subsurface material properties such as porosity and permeability from streaming potential measurements. The predicted permeability and porosity results indicate that the method predictions are more accurate for the permeability predictions, with the inverted permeabilities being in excellent agreement with the actual permeabilities. This approach was finally verified by using data from a field experiment. The predicted permeability results seem to predict the basic trends in permeabilities from a packer test. As expected from synthetic results, the predicted porosity is less accurate. Investigations are also carried out to predict the zeta potential. The predicted zeta potentials are in agreement with values obtained through experimental self potential measurements.     

再谈黎平敖市金刚石异常——贵州省当前最佳金刚石找矿靶区分析

诸多迹象表明,敖市金刚石异常为一浓集异常,且叠加在一辉石重砂异常之上,显示出强烈的近源补给特征,其补给源极有可能是具工业价值的金刚石原生矿.鉴于湘黔金刚石成矿区内已知的含金刚石钾镁煌斑岩及其相关岩体的同位素年龄值均在375～475 Ma范围,其成矿期显然属加里东晚期,而紧邻敖市异常尚有后加里东盖层残留,作为幔源火山作用...     

多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中的应用展望

对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,流域非点源污染模型的不确定性是单一模型模拟污染负荷面临的重大挑战。借鉴多模型方法在降低水文模型不确定性方面的优越性,通过分析水文模型与非点源污染模型的相通性,提出多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中应用的基本思路并分析了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷估算中面临的挑战,总结了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷应用中的重点和难点问题。     

大别-苏鲁造山带、华南晚中生代花岗岩时空分布及应力场对比

花岗岩原地重熔学说为解释华南晚中生代(晚侏罗世-早白垩世)花岗岩时空分布的大地构造成因提供了一种新的视角.而通过对比可以发现,大别-苏鲁造山带及其以北附近区域(尤其是苏鲁造山带及其以北附近区域)与华南晚中生代花岗岩时空分布规律及应力场具有高度的相似性和一致性,即花岗岩展布方向以北东向为主,从北西到南东方向由老变新;而且...     

基于分形维数权重的泥石流危险度评价

泥石流危险度评价是一个复杂的不确定系统问题,为了准确评价泥石流所处的危险度状态,进而为泥石流的防治提供科学依据,提出了基于分形维数权重的泥石流危险度评价方法.该方法首先选取影响泥石流危险度评价的10个主要因素,根据分类标准,采用在每级标准中随机内插的方法,得到40个标准样本,用于构建泥石流危险度评价的分形一插值模型;其次根据最大似然分类原则确定每个泥石流指标的评价分维数;然后利用加权求和法计算样本的综合评价值,并根据样本综合评价值与经验等级之间的关系建立分形插值评价模型;最后,通过实例分析表明:该方法的评价结果是准确和可靠的,与采用其他分类方法所得结论一致.此外,该模型可以得出每个样本的具体得分值,即使对属于同一级的样本也可以排出它们的优劣顺序,因而具有较高的分类精度,为泥石流危险度评价提供了一种较好的新方法.     

Postbuckling of shear deformable stiffened anisotropic laminated cylindrical shell under axial compression

A postbuckling analysis is presented for a shear deformable anisotropic laminated cylindrical shell with stiffener of finite length subjected to axial compression. The material of each layer of the shell is assumed to be linearly elastic, anisotropic and fiber-reinforced. The governing equations are based on a higher order shear deformation shell theory with von Kármán-Donnell-type of kinematic nonlinearity and including the extension/twist, extension/flexural and flexural/twist couplings. The ‘smeared stiffener’ approach is adopted for the beam stiffeners. This arrangement allows the beam stiffeners to be assembled directly into the global stiffness matrix. The nonlinear prebuckling deformations and initial geometric imperfections of the shell are both taken into account. A singular perturbation technique is employed to determine the buckling loads and postbuckling equilibrium paths. The numerical illustrations concern the postbuckling response of perfect and imperfect, grid, axial, ring stiffened, and unstiffened shells. The results confirm that there exists a compressive stress along with an associate shear stress and twisting when the anisotropic shell is subjected to axial compression. The postbuckling equilibrium path is unstable for the moderately thick cylindrical shell under axial compression and the stiffened shell structure is imperfection-sensitive.     

生态旅游区土地生态承载力变化分析

根据生态足迹理论,分析评价千岛湖生态旅游区所在的浙江淳安县的土地生态承载力及其变化。结果显示,1991年和2003年研究区林地和水域的生态承载力均属盈余,而耕地、草地和建设用地出现生态赤字,其中耕地生态赤字最多。其结果与研究区经济发展、消费水平和消费结构的实际变化相一致。生态承载能力从生态盈余到生态赤字,说明研究区土地利用对生态环境的压力不断增加,需加强生态保护。