The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.     

浅水环境中垂向圆形纯射流的试验研究

对静止均匀浅水水域中的铅垂圆形单孔射流进行了试验研究,试验是在实验室的自制恒定水流循环系统中进行的。得到了水面的隆起高度与射流出口单位能量和相对水深的函数关系;验证了隆起高度分布具有自相似性,并给出其统一表达式;借助于三维测速仪,得到了射流流速的横断面分布、射流中线流速的衰减规律和流场的流函数等值线。     

福建省及其沿海和台湾海峡频度统计与分析

本文采用空间扫描方法 ,按选区和时段做震级—频度统计 ,计算年平均地震数。通过比较与分析 ,得出三点初步结论     

WATER VAPOR CONTENT AND MEAN TRANSFER IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHWEST CHINA

The interannual and intermonthly climatic features of the water vapor content(hereafterWVC)and its mean transfer in the atmosphere over Northwest China(hereafter NWC)arecalculated and analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis grid data(2.5°×2.5°Lat/Lon)for 40 years(1958—1997).The results show that the WVC in the total air column over NWC infour seasons of the year is mainly concentrated on eastern and western NWC respectively.On theaverage,the WVC over eastern NWC decreases obviously during recent forty years except forwinter.while it decreases over western NWC in the whole year.But the WVC over NWC has beenincreasing since late 1980s in summer.The water vapor comes from the southwestern warm andwet air current along the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley and the Bay of Bengal.and from mid-western Tibetan Plateau and also from the Qinling Mountains at southern Shaanxi Province.Theyearly water vapor divergence appears over the middle of NWC to northern Xinjiang andsoutheastern Shaanxi Province.The yearly water vapor convergence appears over the Tarim Basinand the Tibetan Plateau as well as western Sichuan and southern Gansu.     

时间平均基流中准定常波的传播及多向折射

应用几何光学中的射线理论，直观地讨论了准定常波在时间平均基流中的传播，解释了定常 传播的纬向非均匀性。结果表明：折射指数平方可表示为基流绝对对基流流函数的微商，定常波的传播路径与折射指数平方的空间分布有着密切的关系。     

中层大气行星波在臭氧的季节和年际变化中输运作用的数值研究──Ⅰ．常定流的情况

本文构造了一个３４层球坐标原始方程波－流相互耦合谱模式，利用此模式从拉格朗日平均环流的观点研究了在常定流下行星波对臭氧的输运作用。研究结果表明，行星波对臭氧的输运有明显的季节变化，在北半球冬季，由于行星波上传到平流层而大大增强了中高纬地区向极地向下的Ｏ３输运；并且还表明，热带纬向风的ＱＢＯ不仅通过影响东、西风切变而引起热带Ｏ３分布的年际变化，而且通过影响行星波的传播引起了行星波对Ｏ３输运的年际变化，这表现为当热带纬向风处于东风位相时，中高纬地区行星波对Ｏ３的输运比西风位相时强。     

ALow-order Model of Two-dimensional Fluid Dynamics on the Surface of a Sphere

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电磁辐射异常分析方法研究

利用河北省电磁台网１９８８～１９９２年的观测资料，对不同台站不同方向的异常映震能力进行了分析研究。并运用信息论方法计算了各台信息水平作为其信息可信度的权系数，对各台资料采用加权平均的方法进行了合成处理，发现比平时采用的等权平均效果要好。同时对其异常频次的累加合成对应地震的异常特征进行了初步的探讨     

初析静力触探判别液化对标准贯入试验的优越性

结合7个勘察场地的标准贯入和静力触探原位测试数据,应用数理统计原理和方法对二者进行比较分析,得出用静力触探试验判别地基土液化的均方差和变异系数等均优越于标准贯入试验。