Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

Factors affecting the distribution and abundance of Macrobrachium petersi (Hilgendorf) in the Keiskamma River and estuary,South Africa

A dry (1979–1980) and a wet (1980–1981) season had a marked effect on the freshwater inflow into the Keiskamma estuary. Under low inflow conditions, which results in elevated salinities in the upper reaches, an upstream migration of adult Macrobrachium petersi (Hilgendorf) to freshwater takes place. During periods of increased river inflow adult M. petersi move downstream to the more saline reaches of the estuary. These two migratory responses have been interpreted as (a) a breeding migration under high inflow conditions which ensures that larvae are in close proximity to salinities that favour growth and development, and (b) an adult upstream migration back to freshwater to escape elevated estuarine salinities as a result of the low freshwater inflow.     

矿物的导电类型与矿物形成温度的关系

通过杂质对导电类型的影响的研究,得出了同种矿物的不同导电类型与矿物形成温度的规律:电子型(n型)导电矿物的形成温度大于电子与空穴混合型导电矿物的形成温度,又大于空穴型(p型)导电矿物的形成温度,绝缘体矿物的形成温度低于上述三种导电类型矿物。应用矿物热电图谱仪,天然金刚石半导体测试仪对闪锌矿、黄铁矿、金刚石等矿物的导电类型进行了测试,并探讨了导电类型成因,证实了上述规律的正确性。     

辽南早元古代花岗岩的变形温度及其构造意义

辽南早元古代辽河群中片麻状花岗岩的变形温度显示出645—690℃,550—610℃和485℃±三组温度值,表明花岗岩遭受了三幕构造变形。而区域构造解析亦表明辽河群在早元古时期经历了三幕构造变动。花岗岩的温度系列与区域变形序列具有一致性,排除了花岗岩晚期构造侵位的可能性。变形温度以550—610℃居多,意味着该幕构造形迹保存最好。第三幕变形变质作用相对较弱,仅局部出现485℃的温度值。     

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO AIR MASS CLASSIFICATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES

Both subjective and objective schemes for air mass classification offer advantages to climatological studies. An integrated approach is developed and applied to 850 mb level data in the north central United States. Each air mass type was initially delimited by a subjective analysis. Final limits were then determined with an objective technique that separates temperature curves into normal components based on interpretation from the subjective method. Continental air was most frequent in all seasons except summer. The methodology also allows estimation of classification error.     

Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).     

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。     

概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。