对20世纪70年代中后期Walker环流异常减弱的分析

20世纪70年代中后期以后,位于达尔文岛的观测海平面气压值(SLP)不断升高,而位于塔西提岛的观测SLP不断下降,形成了在年代际尺度上最弱的热带太平洋东西向环流,即Walker环流.70年代中后期以后,在Walker环流不断减弱的同时,亚洲夏季风也在减弱.通过对海平面气压场的长期变化特征分析,我们发现20世纪70年代中期以后,副热带西太平洋(20～30°N,130～150°E)的SLP不断下降,与不断上升的热带西太平洋(10°S～0°,130～150°E) SLP形成了一个在年代际尺度上的反相关震荡型.这个负SLP距平与江淮流域的对流上升运动相对应,造成了中国地区夏季江淮流域降水增加而华北降水减少的格局.       

Impact of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on onset date and process of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Since the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSM） has a large impact on summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia, the mechanism and process of early or late onset of the SCSM are an worthy issue to study. In this paper, the results analyzed by using the observed data show that the onset date and process of the SCSM are closely associated with the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in spring. When the tropical western Pacific is in a warming state in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward, and twin cyclones are early caused over the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra before the SCSM onset. In this case, the cyclonic circulation located over the Bay of Bengal can be early intensified and become into a strong trough. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity can be intensified over Sumatra, the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea （SCS） in mid-May. This leads to early onset of the SCSM. In contrast, when the tropical western Pacific is in a cooling state, the western Pacific subtropical high anomalously shifts westward, the twin cyclones located over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Sumatra are weakened, and the twin anomaly anticyclones appear over these regions from late April to mid-May. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity cannot be early intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS. Only when the western Pacific subtropical high moves eastward, the weak trough located over the Bay of Bengal can be intensified and become into a strong trough, the strong southwesterly wind and convective activity can be intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS in late May. Thus, this leads to late onset of the SCSM. Moreover, in this paper, the influencing mechanism of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on the SCSM onset is discussed further from the Walker circulation anomalies in the different thermal states of the tropical western Pacific.     

Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Associated Atmospheric Circulations

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger （weaker） summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 （1976-1997）. In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell （EAHC） is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal （40°-50°N, 95°- 115°E） before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere, thus strengthening the EASM. The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the regional vertical motions.     

Quaternary sedimentology of the Rose Creek fan delta, Walker Lake, Nevada, USA, and implications to fan-delta facies models

The 3·2 km long Rose Creek fan delta of west‐central Nevada is prograding from an active rift margin into the 32 m deep Walker Lake. A case study of the forms, processes and facies of this fan delta reveals that the proximal and medial zones mainly are of sub‐aerial origin, and the distal zone is of lacustrine origin. Pebbly to bouldery rock‐avalanche mounds >100 m thick (Facies A) and muddy to bouldery debris flow levées 0·5 to 2·0 m thick (Facies B) dominate the proximal zone, whereas mostly matrix‐supported cobbly pebbly debris flow lobes 0·1 to 1·0 m thick (Facies C) typify the medial zone. Surficial pebble lags and gully fills (Facies D) are widespread in both zones but, in exposures, comprise only partings or lenticles between debris flow units. The distal fan delta mainly consists of lakeshore to lake‐bottom tracts formed by extensive wave reworking of debris flow facies. Nearshore deposits include erosional cobbly boulder lag beaches (Facies E), pebbly constructional beaches attached at headcuts or on barrier spits (Facies F), pebbly upper shoreface (Facies G) and sandy lower shoreface (Facies H) tracts positioned lakeward of the beach, and pebbly landward‐dipping foresets (Facies I) and backshore‐pond sand and mud (Facies J) present landward of the spits. Erosional lag beaches fringe the windward north side of the fan‐delta front, attached constructional beaches characterize the central zone, and southward‐elongating barrier spits typify the leeward south side, extending from the zone of greatest projection of the fan delta into the lake. Shoreline facies asymmetry results from largely unidirectional longshore drift caused by high fetch to the north and minimal fetch to the south, combined with the arcuate shape of the fan‐delta front. The spits overlie a platform deposited below common wave base consisting of south‐east‐trending cones of pebbly Gilbert foresets (Facies K) and sandy toesets (Facies L). Typically slumped silt and mud (Facies M) fringe both this platform and lower shoreface sand in deeper water. This case demonstrates facies types and patterns that are inconsistent with the widely promoted fan‐delta facies model having a front consisting of an apron of radially directed Gilbert foresets deposited where sub‐aerial flows enter the lake. The Rose Creek fan‐delta front instead features a sharp contact between sub‐aerial and lakeshore facies formed where waves erode, sort and redistribute heterogeneous debris flow sediment into the various shallow‐to‐deep lake facies. Gilbert foresets are present only in the lee of the fan delta where sediment moving by longshore drift reaches the brink of the spit front. This facies scenario results from the infrequency of fan‐building events versus nearly constant wind‐induced waves, a scenario that, in contrast to the popular Gilbert model, probably is the norm for fan deltas. The level of Walker Lake, and thus the position of wave reworking on the Rose Creek fan delta, fluctuated over a range of ～157 m during the last 18 kyr, producing complex interfingering between sub‐aerial and lakeshore facies across a 1700 m wide radial belt, typifying a wave‐modified, freestand lacustrine fan delta.     

Oxyanion Concentrations in Eastern Sierra Nevada Rivers – 2. Arsenic and Phosphate

Water samples were collected from the Truckee River-Pyramid Lake system, the Walker River-Walker Lake system, and the Carson River, all located in eastern California and western Nevada, U.S.A., at three different times (i.e., summer 1991, spring 1992, and autumn 1992) over a two year period. The concentrations of As, Na, Cl, PO4, and pH were measured in these river samples and the associated terminal lakes. Arsenic values ranged from below 13 nmol/kg near Truckee, California to 160 nmol/kg at Nixon, Nevada in the Truckee River, from 40 nmol/kg in the headwaters of both West and East Walker Rivers to 270 nmol/kg below Weber Reservoir on the main branch of the Walker River, and from <27 nmol/kg to 234 nmol/kg for the lower Carson River system. Arsenic concentrations in Steamboat Creek (0.91 mol/kg–1.80 mol/kg) in the Truckee River catchment are above the U.S. EPA drinking water maximum contaminant level of 0.67 mol/kg, as are the As concentrations in both Pyramid Lake (1.33 mol/kg–1.57 mol/kg ) and Walker Lake (13.7 mol/kg–18.7 mol/kg). Sources of As for all three rivers include weathering of As-rich rocks and/or regolith and input of high-As geothermal spring waters, both processes primarily, although not exclusively, adding As to the headwater regions of these rivers. Steamboat Hot Springs (29 mol/kg As 54.5 mol/kg), for example, is identified as a source of As to the Truckee River via Steamboat Creek. The high As concentrations in Pyramid and Walker Lakes are likely due to (1) desorption of arsenate from aquatic particulate matter in these high pH waters (9.0 pH 9.5), (2) limited biologic uptake of arsenate, and (3) evaporative concentration of the lake waters. Evaluation of molar PO4}/As ratios of river waters and geothermal spring waters (e.g., Steamboat Hot Springs), indicates that phosphate is substantially enriched in Steamboat Creek as well as the mid to lower reaches of the Walker and Carson Rivers. These regions of each river are dominated by agricultural interests and, additionally, in the case of Steamboat Creek, residential areas and golf courses. Our data strongly imply that phosphate-rich agricultural return flow has likely added P to these streams and, consequently, increased their respective P:As ratios.     

2013年影响广西热带气旋频数偏多的成因分析

使用1951—2013年NOAA OLR、NCEP/NCAR风场和高度场再分析资料、中国气象局热带气旋资料,分析2013年影响广西热带气旋数量偏多的原因。结果表明：2013年6—9月西太平洋副热带高压明显偏强,西伸脊点明显偏西,脊线略偏北,同时副热带高压南侧对流活跃,降水过程潜热释放有助于副热带高压位置偏北,这种形势非常有利于热带气旋向广西移动。索马里越赤道气流强劲,在南海及菲律宾与北太平洋反气旋西南侧的东南气流相遇,形成季风槽,非常有利于热带气旋生成频数偏多。热带低频强对流带在印度洋和西太平洋活动频繁,并分别向东向西移动;赤道东太平洋海温偏低;哈得来和沃克环流较常年偏强,沃克环流上升支位置偏西,这些也可能是2013年影响广西热带气旋数量偏多的原因之一。     

南海夏季风爆发与西太平洋暖池区热含量及对流异常

利用1955～1998年逐月的上层海洋热含量资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了南海夏季风爆发与热带西太平洋暖池区热含量异常的关系,并对影响过程进行了探讨.结果表明:(1)热带西太平洋暖池区是热带上层海洋热含量变化最大的区域,暖池区的热含量的变化与ENSO关系密切,是ENSO循环的重要组成部分,也是影响南海夏季风爆发最明显的地区.(2)南海夏季风爆发与前期(特别是前期冬、春季)暖池热状态的变化有密切关系,当前期暖池热含量高时,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚,这与由暖池变化所产生的上空大气的对流活动密切相关;4月暖池区热含量高(低)是预报南海夏季风爆发早(晚)的一个很好指标.(3)西太平洋暖池区热含量正异常时,辐散中心位于南海—西太平洋,对流强,西太副高弱且位置偏东,季风环流(印度洋纬向环流和经向环流)和Walker环流为正距平环流;正距平的季风环流有利于低空西到西南气流的加强,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚.由暖池变化所引起的大尺度季风环流和Walker环流的异常变化可能是影响南海夏季风爆发的一个重要动力机制.     

1991 年夏暴雨期间Walker 环流和Hadley 环流的特征

该文分析了1991年7月中国江淮暴雨洪水期间赤道太平洋沃克环流及沿115°E哈得莱环流的逐日演变特征。结果发现在暴雨时期赤道东风减弱，西风加强，反哈得莱环流（即季风环流）在中国东部上空加强。在暴雨期间，高低空散度风场的分析指出，在低空出现明显的散度风越赤道气流，而在对流层上部出现散度风的流出。     

Interactions between the 30–60 day oscillation,the walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western pacific and their relations to the interannual oscillation

In this paper, interactions between the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation and the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer are analyzed by using the observed data of wind fields and high-cloud amounts for the period from 1980 to 1989.The analyzed results show that the 30-60 day oscillation (hereafter called LFO) may be largely affected by the convective activities in the tropical western Pacific. The LFO in the tropical western Pacific during the strong convective activities around the Philippines stronger than those during the weak convective activities around the Philippines. Moreover, in the case of strong convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO in the tropical west-ern Pacific and tropical eastern Indian Ocean generally propagates westward, and it is intensified by the LFO with a westward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the east to 140oE. However, in the case of weak convective activities around the Philippines, the LFO gradually becomes stronger with a eastward propagating center of maximum oscillation from the eastern Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific.Corresponding to the 30-60 day oscillation, the Walker circulation is also in oscillation over the tropical Pacific and its circulation cell seems to shift gradually westward from the tropical western Pacific to the tropical eastern In-dian Ocean with strong convective activities around the Philippines. This may maintain the intensification of convective activities there. However, during the weak convective activities around the Philippines, the Walker circula-tion gradually moves eastward and an ascending flow may appear in the equatorial central Pacific. This may cause convective activities to be intensified over the equatorial central Pacific.The analyzed results also show that the LFO in the tropical western Pacific and East Asia may be associated with the interannual oscillation of the SST anomaly in the tropical western Pacific.     

Probabilistic assessment of travel times in groundwater modeling

A Monte Carlo approach is described for the quantification of uncertainty on travel time estimates. A real (non synthetic) and exhaustive data set of natural genesis is used for reference. Using an approach based on binary indicators, constraint interval data are easily accommodated in the modeling process. It is shown how the incorporation of imprecise data can reduce drastically the uncertainty in the estimates. It is also shown that unrealistic results are obtained when a deterministic modeling is carried out using a kriging estimate of the transmissivity field. Problems related with using sequential indicator simulation for the generation of fields incorporating constraint interval data are discussed. The final results consists of 95% probability intervals of arrival times at selected control planes reflecting the original uncertainty on the transmissivity maps.