在台风业务系统中使用卫星云导风资料的试验

在国家气象中心台隐数值预报业务系统中引入国家卫星气象中心提供的卫星云导风资料,进行两项预报试验。第一项是把卫星云导风资料作为观测资料进行最优插值客观分析;第二项是将云导风资料加入到轴对称的人造台风模型风场上,使之产生非对称风场。试验结果表明：卫星云导风资料作为观测资料进入模式后对减小台风路径预报误差效果明显;用云导风形成人造台风模型非对称风场可进一步提高台风路径预报精度。     

台湾以东黑潮流量变异与冬季西北太平洋海洋-大气相互作用

通过对历史资料进行奇异值分解、合成分析及相关分析,揭示了对应冬季台湾以东黑潮流量增强(减弱)时,西北太平洋海区异常失热(得热),北太平洋(北纬20°N以北)上空500hPa位势高度负异常(正异常);进一步证实了冬季西北太平洋海洋-大气相互作用是一个正反馈过程;发现了冬季台湾以东黑潮的暖平流作用可能是维持该正反馈过程进行的一个必要条件;通过超前和滞后相关及合成分析,提出从10月开始,台湾以东黑潮流量异常形成的暖平流作用会对冬季西北太平洋海区海洋-大气相互作用有贡献。     

GRAPES全球模式静力平衡奇异向量改进及应用试验

采用线性化物理过程方案的GRAPES全球模式奇异向量在进行非线性模式积分时会有部分奇异向量出现崩溃问题,这说明奇异向量结构可能存在扰动变量之间不协调之处,需要对奇异向量扰动的计算方法优化,进而改进基于奇异向量的集合预报初值扰动,提高GRAPES全球集合预报效果.基于原有的GRAEPS全球奇异向量计算方法,在求解奇异向量...     

全球海表温度变化与中国夏季降水异常分布

用奇异值分解分离出全球范围及北太平洋海域海表温度与中国夏季降水相关的空间分布结构．经分析得到：当太平洋、大西洋和印度洋海温呈某种特定配置时,特别是当北太平洋的海温呈典型厄尔尼诺型态或暖池附近海温发生异常变化时,对中国夏季雨带位置的变化起一定作用．但就中国大范围而言,海温对夏季降水所起的作用没有达到０．０５显著性水平．海温的变化及特定配置与西北地区夏季降水有较显著的统计关系．     

赤道太平洋区域风应力与海表温度年际异常的奇异值分解

用向量场奇异值分解方法分析了赤道太平洋区域风应力场与海表温度场年际异常的相关联系。结果表明,最主要的一对奇异向量与ENSO循环关系密切,其主要特征为赤道中、东太平洋风应力向赤道的异常辐合（辐散）与该区的SST异常升高（降低）准同步变化。对70和80年代的4次 El Ni?o事件中标准化风应力异常场的分析表明,它们均表现出赤道中、东太平洋的辐合。这一结果可能比用信风张弛描述ENSO循环中的环流异常更合理和更具代表性。     

Signals of short‐term climatic periodicities detected in the groundwater of North China Plain

Growing demand on groundwater resources and the semi‐arid climate in the North China Plain (NCP) highlight the need for improved understanding of connections between regional climate change and groundwater recharge. Hydrologic time series of precipitation and groundwater levels were analyzed in three representative geographical zones throughout the NCP for the period of 1960–2008 using trend analysis and spectral analysis methods. A significant change point around 1975 is followed by a long‐term decline trend in precipitation time series, which coincides with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation positive phase. However, the magnitudes of groundwater level variability due to heavy pumping overwhelm the low‐frequency signal of groundwater levels. Nonlinear trends that related to long‐term climatic variability and anthropogenic activities are removed by using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. Spectral analyses of the detrended residuals demonstrate significant short‐term oscillations at the frequencies of 2–7 years, which have strong correlations with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation modes. This study contributes to improved understanding of dynamic relationship between groundwater and climate variability modes in the NCP and demonstrates the importance of reliable detrending methods for groundwater levels that are affected greatly by pumping. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用四元数的运算法则推导球面三角公式

基于四元数的运算法则，引入向量的共轭和逆概念及2个向量之间的另一种乘法运算--格拉斯曼乘积。结果表明，球面上大圆弧对应的四元数为球心指向大圆弧终点的单位向量与球心指向大圆弧始点的单位向量逆的格拉斯曼乘积；球面角对应的四元数为终大圆弧（指向顶点）平面法向的单位向量与始大圆弧（背向顶点）平面法向的单位向量逆的格拉斯曼乘积。利用四元数运算法则可方便地推导球面三角形边或角正弦和余弦公式及第一和第二五元素公式。     

Singular value decomposition of the compliance response matrix for the triaxial stress condition

Performance-based design demands accurate prediction of soil deformation under a working load condition. The nonlinear stress–strain behavior needs to be analyzed quantitatively to advance the understanding of complex soil behavior in the pre-failure condition. The singular value decomposition technique is introduced to quantitatively analyze the compliance matrix representing the strain response envelope (SRE). The rotation of the ellipse of the SRE relates to the anisotropic response of the soil deformation. The off-centered SRE provides evidence of the kinematic hardening plasticity. Quantitative data on the movement of SREs provide us with crucial information to investigate the effect of stress history and the evolution of stiffness anisotropy in soil deformation.     

风云二号气象卫星图像定位和卫星风精度的改善中解决问题的途径

本文以改善风云二号气象卫星图像定位和卫星遥感风精度的工作为例,简述工程技术任务中解决问题的途径.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987110000368

In this paper,we show that geo-anomalies can be delineated for mineral deposit prediction according to singularity theories developed to characterize nonlinear mineralization processes.Associating singularity and geo-anomalies makes it possible to quantitatively study geo-anomalies with modern nonlinear theories and methods.This paper introduces a newly developed singularity analysis of nonlinear mineralization processes and nonlinear methods for characterizing and mapping geo-anomalies for mineral depos...